It looks like we will see a parade of storms and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific over the coming days. Right now, we have TS Agatha which is weakening over cooler water and TS Blas which is about to become a hurricane. Both systems continue to remain well off the Mexican coastline and will have virtually no impact on land.
The recent burst of activity in the east Pacific can be partially attributed to a more favorable pattern overall that has allowed convection to develop and thrive. This phenomenon is called a convectively coupled Kelvin wave or CCKW. What is that you ask? It is difficult to explain but essentially it is an eastward moving wave of energy, bound by the equator to its south, that seems to enhance convection and vorticity (spin) in the atmosphere. Another way to look at it – the spark that lights the fire. Often times the passage of a CCKW will trigger the development of tropical waves as they progress across the ocean. In this case, the east Pacific took advantage of the passage and now we have two tropical cyclones and a third likely later this week. The good news is that none of the systems seem bound to affect land areas.
Will the CCKW make its way in to the western Caribbean and/or Atlantic and thus set up potential development there? So far, I am not seeing much evidence to support that. The global models all indicate generally quiet conditions over the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf for the next several days. This is not surprising considering that when the east Pacific is active, the Atlantic is usually not. It’s also early July and from a climatology perspective, we are not supposed to see much activity right now anyway.
In other news, it’s now been two years since a hurricane of any strength made landfall along the U.S. coastline. That hurricane was Arthur in the very early morning hours of July 4, 2014.
I was in the eye of the category two hurricane over the Oregon Inlet in fact where the wind was about as calm as could be for about 20 minutes. Arthur produced moderate storm surge flooding, in some cases 4 to 5 feet of it, along portions of the Outer Banks, mainly south of Oregon Inlet. The disruption to tourist season was a major issue but the area rebounded quickly and fortunately, no other hurricanes had direct influence on the Outer Banks that season.
I will cover Arthur’s anniversary and more in my video discussion which will be posted later this afternoon.
M. Sudduth 10:15 AM ET July 4