October does not mean it’s over

The calendar says it’s early October which means fall weather, football and MLB playoff time. It does not, however, say that hurricane season is over; quite the contrary – we have quite a bit going on.

In the Atlantic, hurricane Leslie continues to spin out in the middle of the open ocean adding to the ACE score for the season. It will not directly impact land although swells and high seas generated could impact places such as Bermuda and perhaps the Canadian Maritimes.

Our next area to monitor closely will be the Gulf of Mexico as a large and broad area of low pressure, also called a gyre, slowly organizes as it moves north from the western Caribbean Sea. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of developing as we get in to next week. It’s something to watch for sure.

Meanwhile, in the east Pacific, hurricane Sergio will likely turn back towards the north and east with time and could pose a flood risk to the Baja, northern Mexico and eventually the SW USA. This is more than a week out but it certainly bears watching.

I cover these topics and more in my most recent video discussion posted below.

TS Kirk will bring strong wind, heavy rain to portions of Lesser Antilles; also need to watch Rosa closely in east Pacific

Here we are about to end the month of September and the tropics are still as busy as ever. While we do not have any hurricanes currently in the Atlantic, Kirk may make a run at becoming a hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Meanwhile, in the east Pacific, hurricane Rosa is gaining strength quickly and will soon become a major hurricane and then is likely to turn north and eventually northeast towards the Baja and the Southwest U.S. – which could pose a major flood threat early next week.

I cover all of these topics and more in my latest video discussion posted below.

Watching 98L closely

Invest area 98L has become more organized today with an increase in convection or thunderstorm activity. This will help to give it a boost and could possibly lead to the development of a tropical depression or tropical storm before it turns north and eventually away from the Mid-Atlantic coast.

The NHC indicates an even split of 50/50 for development chances and mentions stronger upper level winds that are forecast to move in to the region by Wednesday. I think that between now and then, we could very well see a tropical storm form from this system which does have some remnant energy from hurricane Florence mixed in to its “DNA”. Whether or not the NHC calls it Florence again remains to be seen – I am glad I don’t have to make that decision, that’s for sure.

The bottom line is that interests along the NC coast, especially the Outer Banks, need to watch this system closely throughout the next 2-3 days. I expect an increase in showers with periods of heavy rain along with gusty winds from time to time. With the recent full moon, any onshore flow will just make high tide periods even worse.

I am actually heading back to Rodanthe tomorrow to pick up my camera box that was set out almost two weeks ago now for the arrival of Florence. I guess it will now be a gear retrieval/field mission combo.

As for the rest of the tropics, we have very little to worry about in terms of impacts to land over the next few days although we will need to monitor the progress of Kirk’s remnant energy as we may see it also make a comeback before reaching the Lesser Antilles.

I highlight all of this and more in my latest video discussion below.

A lot to track but nothing to worry about for now

The tracking map sure is busy these days with newly formed subtropical storm Leslie (this basically means that it is a larger, more spread out storm than a more typical tropical storm would be) as well as TS Kirk and plenty of other features to monitor over the coming days.

With all of this activity, we are quite lucky that there are no areas posing a threat to land for the time being. The only issue I see is TS Kirk which could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles as the week progresses.

Meanwhile, a new tropical storm is likely to form in the eastern Pacific but it too will be far from land and not pose any threat for impacts.

I have limited connectivity here at my home office with no broadband Internet access, just the use of my Verizon mobile hotspot which is just about out of pre-paid data…so, I must keep things short and to the point. That being said, I am able to produce my video discussions and embed them here and share on social media (yaaay). Here is my latest:


Tropics busy but nothing stands out as being threatening

Things are still very busy in the Atlantic as we head through the weekend. We have newly designated TS Kirk way out in the deep tropics and we will need to keep an eye on this system over the coming days as it travels westward towards the Lesser Antilles.

Meanwhile, invest area 98L which is situated to the south of Bermuda is likely to try and push west before turning northward near the NC Outer Banks next week. The pattern is just not very favorable for much to come from this system which, by the way, is not the remnant low pressure area associated with what was once hurricane Florence. We will certainly keep a close eye on the situation but overall, I think it will be no more than a pesky coastal storm for early next week and that’s about all.

Check out my latest video discussion for more in-depth analysis of all the goings on in the tropics.