Slow moving Julia will be major aggravation

I am on the road in SC this morning after making a stop in Tybee Island, GA where winds were gusting to 25 mph near sunrise this morning. The Atlantic was churned up pretty good as a fairly stiff onshore fetch made for rough surf.

The main theme for Julia will be its slow movement which means another possible heavy rain event setting up for portions of the Carolinas.

Here is a video discussion that I shot just a little while ago while stopped for a break in Walterboro, SC:

M. Sudduth 11am ET


Tropical storm Julia forms just inland over NE FL – I will cover it live

The NHC began issuing advisories for TS Julia tonight. The thing that makes it quite unusual is the fact that Julia is over land along the northeast part of Florida, near Jacksonville. Normally we think of tropical storms as forming over warm water but what became Julia was probably a well organized depression and weak tropical storm for most of the day. The NHC mentions that the organization had persisted for over 12 hours and it was time to begin advisories.

Top winds are 40 mph with higher gusts, mainly along the immediate coast of Florida and southeast Georgia. There is a chance for isolated tornadoes and severe weather with any strong convection that moves in off the Atlantic tonight and tomorrow.

The biggest impact will be very heavy rain and this will impact travel along I-95 within the region. Truckers should be aware of this hazard and plan accordingly. It is possible that almost a foot of rain will fall since Julia is moving so slow. The track forecast takes the storm farther inland over extreme southeast Georgia tomorrow and throughout the rest of the week. Obviously, any motion to the east and over water would lead to prolonged tropical storm conditions along the immediate coast. This is something we will have to monitor.

I am heading out right now to travel to southeast Georgia for live coverage of the conditions there. I will have wind and pressure data via the weather station on the HurricaneTrack Chevy Tahoe that has proven so reliable all these years. I realize it’s not “that big of a deal” and it’s not a hurricane but it’s something to cover and will be a big story for the region. Besides, this is what I do – big or small, I try to cover as much as I can in person to show the impact.

Watch live via the link below and also follow along in our app where I will post video updates frequently in the video section. There is no reason to take any surge cams or unmanned weather stations for this field work – it will all be done via the equipment on the Tahoe.

I’ll have more tomorrow in a blog post later in the day once I settle in on a place to bunk down for the night. Until then – follow along LIVE below:

Live coverage of tropical storm Julia


TS Ian forms out in open central Atlantic; otherwise, all is quiet

Visible satellite image showing TS Ian and not much else for the time being. Click for full size image.

Visible satellite image showing TS Ian and not much else for the time being. Click for full size image.

Hard to believe that it is close to mid-September and the only track-able feature is a highly sheared tropical storm named Ian.

The NHC upgraded what was invest area 94L to tropical storm Ian around 11am this morning. Top winds are 40 mph but mainly within what little organized convection the storm is able to generate. Strong upper level winds are pushing the deep thunderstorms away from the low level center and this will limit the development of Ian and could keep it from becoming a hurricane.

There is almost zero chance that Ian will directly impact the United States or any other area of the western Atlantic. Steering currents are such that a south to north movement will continue for now followed by a gradual turn to the northeast and in to the far North Atlantic. Ian will generate a few ACE points for the season but that’s about it.

Ian is the ninth named storm to form in 2016 and replaces Igor which itself replaced Ivan, both powerful hurricanes with lasting impacts worthy of having those names retired from the list. Ivan was a devastating hurricane from the 2004 season and so Igor replaced that name in 2010. As fate would have it, Igor was destined for infamy due to its destructive path which included massive damage in Newfoundland after brushing past Bermuda in the latter half of September 2010. I don’t think Ian is in jeopardy of having its name replaced this cycle.

Wind shear analysis where red is unfavorable. As you can see, the Atlantic Basin is full of strong upper level winds. Click for full size image.

Wind shear analysis where red is unfavorable. As you can see, the Atlantic Basin is full of strong upper level winds. Click for full size image.

As for the rest of the tropics – the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are all free and clear of any potential development threats. Strong upper level winds dominate the pattern right now and I do not see this changing anytime soon. There is plenty of warm water available, much of it above the long-term average in terms of temperature but without a favorable atmosphere, warm water alone is not enough.

Meanwhile out in the western Pacific, a typhoon with 180+ mph winds is tracking towards Taiwan and mainland China. This will be one to watch over the coming days as it is the equivalent to a category five hurricane. Forecast models suggest that it may track just far enough south of Taiwan to avoid a direct hit but this would mean a stronger impact for China a couple of days later. I’ll take a look at this and more in my video discussion which will be posted later this afternoon.

M. Sudduth 11:55 AM ET Sept 12


Monday morning Hermine video discussion posted

I have posted my Monday morning look at the tropics with an emphasis on Hermine which is still churning well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. I also have a live camera streaming from the Brigantine area of coastal New Jersey. It is literally in the ocean, mounted on a piling that was installed a few months ago just beyond the seawall for posting official signage from the city. The camera is monitoring the morning high tide which is running just a little above normal but nowhere near the levels predicted a few days ago when Hermine was forecast to be much closer to the coast. I will the camera going until about 1pm ET then it’s time to pack up and head back to North Carolina for some rest.

The tropics are still busy even though we don’t have any new areas of concern just yet in the Atlantic. It is coming up on peak time for the season and the next three to four weeks should feature on and off development anywhere across the entire Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Water temps are very warm still with plenty of energy for potential systems to tap in to.

In the east Pacific, TS Newton will make landfall along the southern tip of the Baja tomorrow night bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the region. The remnant moisture is likely to take aim on the Southwest with the threat of flooding increasing for parts of Arizona and New Mexico. I cover all of this and more in today’s video discussion.

Links to live camera in NJ:

Brigantine – Ocean Side