Very dangerous storm surge predicted for parts of Gulf Coast

The very latest information from the national hurricane center indicates that  Hermine  continues to get better defined. The pressure continues to drop as the organization improves. It is likely that it will be a hurricane at landfall late tonight.

The biggest threat continues to be a potentially deadly storm surge in the Big Bend  area. If you are told to evacuate I highly recommend you follow those instructions and do so.

Once inland heavy rain will cause flooding and a potential traffic nightmare along interstate 95.  Remember this is a busy holiday weekend coming up and a lot of people will wish to travel. Rainfall could cause extensive flooding.  Please do not underestimate the potential for  very heavy rain from the system.

Further up the coast from Georgia through North Carolina tropical storm conditions are possible. Residents and visitors in this region should closely monitor the progress of the storm.

I will continue to post a blog updates here throughout the rest of today as Hermine  draws closer to the  coast.

Share

Hermine to affect large portion of the Southeast over next 48 hours

 Most recent tracking map for Hermine

Most recent tracking map for Hermine

Hermine  is slowly strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico. The latest from the in HC indicates that the pressure is down to 996 mbar. Winds are still near 60 mph. The forecast  indicates that the storm will strengthen to hurricane intensity later today.

The forecast track takes the center of the would be hurricane into Apalachee bay.  Most of the worst weather is likely to be experienced to the east of the center. This includes fairly substantial storm surge all along the Big Bend area.  Please consult National Weather Service local statements for specific information on storm surge forecast for your area.  Some locations, such as St. Mark’s,  could see storm surge flooding above ground level two as much as 7 feet. This poses an obvious life-threatening situation.

Hurricane force winds are also possible that I am not as concerned about that as I am with the storm surge.

The other major issue will be extremely heavy rain for portions of Florida spreading up into much of the Southeast near the coastal plain. It would not surprise me to see rainfall totals exceeding a foot across a wide swath  of the region.

The current forecast takes the storm along the coast of the southeast United States and out into the Atlantic off the mid Atlantic coast.  We are going to be dealing with this system for the next several days and it will affect a lot of people during a busy holiday weekend.

I am currently working to set up the first unmanned camera and St. Mark’s, Florida. Once it is operational I will post the link on a special edition of this homepage.

I will work to place the other camera systems in areas throughout the Big Bend area throughout the day.

After sunrise I will begin posting video blogs to our app, Hurricane Impact. Be sure to check the video section frequently throughout the day.  I will also be able to post pictures and short observations to Twitter which is also part of our app.

M. Sudduth 5:30 am ET  September 1

Share

ECMWF indicates strengthening Hermine making landfall in FL panhandle

12z ECMWF

12z ECMWF (courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com)

The morning run of the ECMWF model indicates that tropical storm Hermine  Will gradually strengthen up until landfall near the Central panhandle of Florida. Take a look at this image valid Friday morning showing strong energy or vorticity in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  This indicates a fairly well developed tropical cyclone and it is possible that Hermine will be a hurricane at landfall.

Right now, the biggest impact still appears to be storm surge flooding and this will encompass a fairly large area of the Florida Panhandle from Apalachicola beyond the Big Bend area.  Obviously the stronger the storm becomes the higher the storm surge is likely to be. Residents in the area of the hurricane watch need to be preparing for hurricane conditions there’s no doubt about it;  plan for a hurricane and don’t wait to see what happens.

I am currently in Savannah on my way to Lake City, Florida. I will post a full video discussion this evening.

M. Sudduth 3:50pm ET Aug 31

Share

TD9 upgraded to a tropical stormHermine

The NHC has officially upgraded the depression tropical storm intensity. There are no changes to the forecast track at this time. However, morning model  guidance suggests a more westward adjustment to the track is coming.

I will have a full video discussion posted early this evening. I am currently in South Carolina on my way to Florida.

Share