Arthur Models Shift West – Making Eastern NC Landfall Very Likely

The most recent 2PM model data is in – and the models have once again shifted west.  In the below graphic, notice the initial position (0 hours) for the most recent run is north and west of where ANY of the models from 6 hours ago had it:

Models have shifted west - again - because Arthur is late making the expected turn to the NE

Models have shifted west – again – because Arthur is late making the expected turn to the NE

This means the core of the hurricane could be further inland than was previously expected – and will expose the Outer Banks and points to the southwest to the strongest winds and the highest surge.

Mark and Jesse are there now getting everything set.  Weather will start going downhill for them rapidly.

MWatkins – 3:34PM EDT 7/3/2014

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Arthur Forecast to be a Category 2 at Landfall

The latest NHC advisory is now calling for Arthur to be a category 2 storm

Current forecast timing for Arthur

Current forecast timing for Arthur

at landfall.  Here are a few quick updates since the latest posts:

1.  Mark and Jesse are in position on the Outer Banks and will be moving the surge cams into position in the next few hours.

2.  Recon in the storm has reported a closed eyewall with a 30 nautical mile wide diameter (about 35 miles wide) with a pressure of 980MB

3.  It does appear dry air may be working into the core of the storm in the last few satellite frames, but there is still time for it to strengthen more before making landfall.

Pictured here is the latest timing map based on the 11AM advisory and model package.  Weather will begin deteriorating rapidly by the end of the afternoon for the team and for OBX so everyone should get prepared as quickly as possible.

MWatkins – 1:05PM EDT 7/3/2014

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Hurricane Arthur Steadily Strengthening

After struggling with dry air issues for much of the last couple of days, Arthur has now exceeded “minimal” hurricane status and is packing winds of 80MPH as of 8AM EDT this morning.

The satellite presentation of Arthur continues to improve, and thunderstorms and deep convection now surround most of the center.  The last few visible images even suggest it may be trying to develop a CDO (central dense overcast), which if it does, would indicate a stronger and more organized inner core.

Here’s a look at the most recent model runs as of 8AM this morning (in the header graphic) – zoomed in on the coast of NC.  The Official forecast is the orange line, the others are the various global and dynamic models (I am not showing all of them, just the ones with the highest skill).

The 11AM advisory will be out soon and I will have another quick update w/ analysis in about an hour.

MWatkins 10:40AM EDT 7/3/2014

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Arthur Near Hurricane Status, Closing in on Outer Banks

First a quick intro (or reintroduction for some):  I’m Mike Watkins, and I have been working with Mark and Jesse for almost 10 years now as a part of the HurricaneTrack team.

Here are a few quick updates on Arthur as it closes in on North Carolina.

1.  A burst of deep convection has developed near and to the east of the center of circulation.  With pressures already down in the 988MB range as of the 11PM EDT advisory, this new thunderstorm activity could push this to a hurricane overnight.

2.  The latest GFS model shows a strengthening Arthur crossing extreme eastern NC by Thursday night into Friday morning.

3.  Any slight deviation in track to the west of the current forecast could bring hurricane condition farther east into NC.  Residents within the hurricane warning area should plan accordingly and have preparations completed as soon as possible.

Mark and Jesse are moving into position along the Outer Banks, and will be working through the night to get into position to deploy our Surge Cams and the drifting Surge Buoy.  As a result, blog updates may be sporadic until later in the day – so if you’re reading this on Thursday morning, don’t panic!  Updates from Mark (and me) will be coming in throughout the day starting around noon eastern time.

Until then, I will be working on a morning update after the latest model runs complete.  Look for an update from me around (and hopefully before) the 11AM EDT advisory package from the NHC.

Thanks again for being a part of Hurricane Impact and Hurricanetrack.com.

MWatkins – 1:11AM EDT 7/3/2013

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Time to head to the Outer Banks

Hurricane warnings are up and it is time for action. People along parts of the North Carolina coast will have to endure a hurricane threat, and possible direct hit, this Fourth of July. It’s a very rare event indeed and not one that people will want to remember the holiday period for. None the less, it is part of living on the coast and this too shall pass – but not without some anxious moments ahead for sure.

My best advice at this point for people in harm’s way is to listen to your local officials. Seek out local information via social media and Web sites. Weather.gov is a great resource with Hurricane Local Statements that give detailed information about what to expect and when. For people who know the drill, they are springing in to action now. For visitors who may think this is exciting, well, it is by the very nature of the beast but it’s a dangerous kind of excitement and this situation needs to be taken seriously. If you’re asked to evacuate, do it. I know it stinks to lose vacation time but you don’t want to get stuck on the Outer Banks for 10 days with no food or water – trust me on that.

Speaking of being stuck, hopefully that won’t happen to me. I’ll be heading out to Hatteras Island tonight. Gotta get there before 5am tomorrow or I can’t get in. I will deploy my equipment and then seek out high ground to ride it out in relative safety. I have enough supplies for 3 days so I will likely be ok – if not, my fat reserves will kick in 😉

Follow along live via Ustream as I travel to the Outer Banks. I’ll stop in Williamston for a couple of hour’s nap later tonight and then it’s on to Hatteras.

Click here for the link to the live Ustream feed. It will be active for as long as I can possibly keep it going.

You may also follow along in our app, Hurricane Impact. I will post video reports often throughout the next few days. The app is a fantastic way to keep up with what is going on and will have the live weather data and web cam image feeding in to by later tomorrow. Search Hurricane Impact in the App Store and on Google Play.

I wish my friends and other folks who follow our work the best of luck with Arthur. Hopefully it won’t be too bad but I am fearful that we are looking at a potential ugly situation for a portion of the NC Outer Banks. I will do my best to provide accurate, non-sensational information for you, thanks for following along!

Mark Sudduh 7:15 pm ET July 2

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