The Atlantic Basin hurricane season has been pretty much as anticipated: not very active. We’ve had four hurricanes form since June 1 and only one of them became a major hurricane with winds of 115 mph. This is what was forecast by most agencies and I see little reason to believe that the current hostile pattern will abate before we reach the end of the season in November.
Before we throw in the towel and put away the tracking maps (people still use paper maps, right?), it is important to remember that even one late season hurricane can spell trouble and we’re not just talking about U.S. interests either. Even though the odds are seemingly against it this year, we still have to monitor the tropics in case something develops at just the right time and ruins what was another year of little impact to land. For now, I see nothing to suggest we will have anything to worry about in the near future.
The eastern Pacific is a different story completely. We’ve seen quite a few intense hurricanes form here with significant impact to areas such as the Baja peninsula and even up in to the Desert Southwest and parts of southern California. Perhaps this is part of the developing El Nino which is finally coming in to play. What ever the reason, the east Pacific has had plenty of action this year and it’s not over yet.
Another tropical depression is likely to form off the coast of Mexico and then move generally westward and away from land. There’s a chance it tries to turn back more to the north and east with time but nothing like we saw with Norbert and Odile. Once this system gets a name, it will be Rachel – pretty far down the list of names for the east Pacific.
That’s about it. Nice and quiet means not a lot to talk about. I’ll have more here tomorrow.
M. Sudduth 9:00 AM ET Sept 23