No worries from the tropics this weekend

Here we are in mid-June and the tropics are nice and quiet. The NHC is not monitoring any organized areas of convection in either the Atlantic or the east Pacific. Also, none of the global computer models that we watch for tropical development show anything taking place over the next several days. Typically, June is pretty quiet – Andrea was an exception this year.

We are likely headed towards a period of favorable upper level winds associated with the MJO towards the end of the month. I am not confident about it just yet though as the GFS shows a much more pronounced signal than does the ECMWF MJO forecast. There’s no need to worry about which one will be correct right now, we’ve got a nice weekend ahead and should enjoy that. I’ll examine the MJO forecast more closely on Monday. Until then, have a great weekend, stay safe if traveling and I’ll have more here on Monday.

Thoughts on Andrea plus the tropical Atlantic

This is a fairly active Tropical Weather Outlook Map for early June

This is a fairly active Tropical Weather Outlook Map for early June

Andrea made landfall early this evening along the Big Bend area of Florida as a solid tropical storm. Heavy rain bands produced some flooding as well as tornadoes across portions of the Florida peninsula today. Now that the center is over land, a steady weakening will take place though the threat of additional impacts from Andrea is not over.

Bands of heavy rain will rotate onshore across coastal Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina throughout the remainder of the night. These spiral bands are capable of dropping a quick inch or two of rain if they train over an area for an extended period of time. There is also a slight risk of tornadoes tonight though without daytime heating to help elevate those thunderstorms within the rainbands, this risk is quite low.

The main issue will be tomorrow as the storm moves up the I-95 corridor and continues to dump excessive rain fall over a large area. This will make travel difficult and I know that people, despite the storm, will be headed to the area beaches as school is now out for a lot of families. Please, take my advice and slow down, leave extra time to get to your destination. I have driven in many a hurricane and know the dangerous of not just the roads but OTHER DRIVERS who could not care any less about others. I want you back reading the blog Monday, so drive safe!

I know this will be a rainy and generally nasty start to the weekend for the region but, no worries, by Noon Saturday, skies will clear and places such as Tybee Island, Hilton Head, Wrightsville Beach and the Outer Banks will be fine and dandy – so do not cancel plans if you’re headed there this weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we have 92L which went mostly un-noticed by most until late this afternoon when it became a little better organized over the deep tropics. I believe this is a sign of things to come as the atmoshphere is more unstable across the deep tropics this season and it will not surprise me to see an active July out that way considering the distinctly different set up than we’ve seen in recent years. For now, 92L is fighting against one heck of a shear machine which is common for June. If this were late August, we’d be looking at our next named storm already with this system. It’s just something to monitor and will not have a negative impact on any land areas anytime soon, if at all.

I’ll post more here in the morning and plan to add a few video clips to our iPhone app, Hurricane Impact, throughout the day tomorrrow from the Wilmington, NC area.

M. Sudduth

Andrea lopsided but going to bring adverse conditions to the Southeast

Tropical storm Andrea to affect a lot of people from FL to VA

Tropical storm Andrea to affect a lot of people from FL to VA

Tropical storm Andrea has intensified over night with top winds now reaching 60 mph. The surface pressure has also dropped to 997 mb. This is fairly impressive for a lopsided storm like Andrea where most of the more intense convection is located to the north and east of center rather than wrapping completely around it.

The storm is already bringing bands of heavy rain and gusty winds to a good deal of Florida, mainly from the central panhandle across much of the peninsula. Embedded within these rain bands are isolated tornadoes that spring up with little warning. Fortunately, they are not the same type of tornadoes that are seen on the Great Plains but they can still cause significant damage where ever they touch down. This severe weather threat will continue for parts of Florida and will spread in to Georgia and the Carolinas throughout today and tomorrow. Keep that NOAA Weather Radio handy – rapidly changing weather can affect you with little advance warning.

The strength of the storm will limit its storm surge potential but as much as four feet of water could inundate otherwise dry areas from Tampa Bay north and west to Apalachicola. My best advice to know if your area will be impacted by surge is to visit weather.gov and input your ZIP Code on the homepage. From there you will have a page specific to your location. There will be red headlines in the top area of that page outlining hazards associated with Andrea. Read these discussions and you’ll know what to expect for your local area. It’s a great tool to help you better understand the impacts from this tropical storm.

Winds will continue to increase and may approach tropical storm force across a wide swath of the west coast of Florida. These windy conditions will then move up along the Southeast coast, also pushing a small storm surge onshore from Florida to Virginia. Rough seas will make boating a no-no over the next couple of days.

The track forecast keeps Andrea well inland over the Southeast but the NHC indicates it will be remain a tropical storm for quite some time. This will result in a rather unpleasant 24 to 36 hours for many folks from Florida to Virginia. Do not underestimate the impacts from “just a tropical storm”. The severe weather elements alone are enough to warrant quite a bit of concern due to the nature of this particular storm. Add to that the heavy rain, storm surge and windy conditions and you can see why this needs to be taken seriously. It’s not about the category, it’s about the impact and Andrea will bring quite a few negative impacts to the Southeast today and tomorrow.

I’ll post more on Andrea here later today. I’ll also have a video blog posted to our app, Hurricane Impact, early this afternoon and plan on posting video blogs from around SE North Carolina during this event later today and throughout tomorrow.

M. Sudduth

Hurricane season begins

It’s June 1 and that means the official start to the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season had arrived. For the next six months the Atlantic Basin will be monitored closely by hurricane trackers all over the world.

What is it about hurricanes that captivates the imaginations of so many people? A large part of it has to do with proximity: most people who care enough to track hurricanes more than just passively actually live on or very near the coast. Thus, these folks have a vested interest in what may be coming from the tropics.

Still, a large number of people from all over the country and indeed, from around the world, track hurricanes with great interest. I think it is the still mysterious nature of these children of the oceans that draws people in. It’s a power far greater than any of us can begin to comprehend and so we are glued to our computers, our mobile devices and our TVs and radios when the likes of a Hugo, Andrew or Katrina comes calling.

So what’s in store for 2013? Every respected hurricane forecasting entity from universities to NOAA to private firms have all suggested that this season could be quite busy. What none of them can tell us though, not with any degree of accuracy, is where these future hurricanes will end up. Will it be your back yard? Will they remain just far enough off the East Coast to warrant only concern but little else? There’s just no way to know for sure. We can venture to guess based on past patterns but I think it is better to be aware and be prepared.

Speaking of being prepared, what does that mean? For me, I think it is two-part concept. First, it’s about education and knowing the enemy. The more you know about something that can potentially harm you, the better you can prepare for it. Second, it’s about doing what you can to mitigate loss over the long term. Sure the preparedness tips are helpful: stock up on this and that for the storm event itself but what about long term plans to lessen the impacts over time? Simple things like having a generator and knowing how to properly use and maintain it can help to save your refrigerated goods and provide some level of comfort after a landfall. Perhaps it’s getting to know your insurance agent and your policy a little better. Why wait until everyone in your community is calling for help to get to know what’s covered and what’s not? The little things that can be done ahead of the watches and warnings will go a long way in minimizing stress and you may fare a little better because of it.

This season we will be promoting our iPhone (and soon to be released) Android app. It’s called Hurricane Impact and is exactly what it sounds like. We focus on the impact from tropical storms and hurricanes and that’s what it comes down to, right? If they all stayed out to sea, the hurricane app market would be a shadow of what it currently is. Hurricane Impact is affordable at $2.99 in the App Store and will give users a daily video blog, field mission video blogs, live wind and pressure data from our own weather stations, live web cam images and a new and innovative “Surge Cam” that we’ll set up to monitor storm surge along the coast. Add our own tracking maps, blog, Twitter and Facebook feeds and it’s a great addition to your weather apps collection. Click here to get it now.

One this first day of the season I am happy to report that there are no areas of concern in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf. We may see a low pressure area evolve in the Gulf of Mexico later this week but it looks to remain weak and rather disorganized. Still, rain chances may be on the increase for the Florida peninsula as we move through the week so keep an eye out for that.

I’ll be hosting a special live Ustream broadcast on Monday night – 8pm ET – to discuss the season and talk about our plans for field coverage. To watch live, simply go to our Ustream channel: Ustream.tv/hurricanetrack on Monday evening. I will have Mike Watkins and Jesse Bass, both long time colleagues and great friends of mine, on with me to round out the discussions. Hope you can tune in – if not, I’ll save it for later viewing anytime.

I’ll post a blog at least once a day, every day of the season. With that said, I’ll have more tomorrow.

M. Sudduth

Storm surge is major threat from hurricanes

Storm Surge From Hurricane Isaac in 2012

Storm Surge From Hurricane Isaac in 2012 as captured from one of our older generation Surge Cams. Top image is before Isaac on August 28 while the bottom image is during the height of the surge along the Mississippi coast. The water rose several feet at this location along Gulfport Harbor.

This week is Hurricane Preparedness Week and as such, each day has a topic related to hurricanes and being prepared.

Today’s topic is storm surge – one of the most devastating effects from a tropical cyclone. Historically, storm surge kills more people than any other tropical cyclone hazard. We saw a period of time from 1970 through 2004 when few people lost their lives due to surge. Then, in 2005, Katrina changed all of that with scores of lives lost due to surge from the Missisisppi Sound as well as the catastrophic flooding from storm surge coupled with the failure of New Orleans’ levee system.

Sadly, the trend continued, though not to the same scale fortunately, with Sandy last October as storm surge swept in to areas along the New York and New Jersey coasts. A vast majority of the damage from Sandy was the result of storm surge and battering waves.

Most people do not understand storm surge and how it can affect them. Almost all evacauations in a hurricane are because of the threat of storm surge flooding. Studies are done to predict traffic flow, behavior patterns and response to evacuation orders. In most cases, people will wait as long as possible to determine whether or not the threat to their immediate location is substantial enough to warrant the trouble of leaving. While this is an understandble trait of human nature, it could lead to deadly consequences.

Let’s take hurricane Ike from 2008 as an example. It was an especially large hurricane that generated an enormous surge of water that was quite literally pushed towards the northwest Gulf of Mexico coastline. The NHC had forecast Ike to become an intense category three hurricane for several days before its landfall near Galveston on September 13. Yet, thousands of people remained on Galveston Island despite A) the city’s infamous history with hurricanes and B) the warning that people would face “certain death” if they remained behind.

If someone told you that if you remained in your car on a hot July day with the power off and the windows rolled up that you would face certain death, what would you do? I am guessing that 100% of you would not remain in your car under those conditions. Why? Because you know what will happen. You have felt the car get really hot before and have the A/C to fire up in order to make it tolerable. The point is, you’ve experienced the conditions that could kill you before yet you have the tool (A/C) to mitigate the worst from happening. It is that experience with a very hot car that has taught you not to remain inside of it for any length of time during warm to hot days.

The same cannot be said of storm surge. Most people who live along the coast have never experienced a storm surge from a tropical storm or hurricane. Thus, they have no idea what they’re dealing with. They have not seen it with their own eyes and do not grasp the concept of how much energy moving water has. They are shown maps on TV and the Internet and are told to evacuate. Often times, most people do not unless they sense danger.

I suppose that as Ike approached, some people did not sense any danger and chose to remain behind. The resulting storm surge as at least 20 feet high in some locations with thousands of homes either destroyed or seriously damaged by the flood waters. Lives were lost because people did not evacuate though scores of lives were indeed saved because of adequte warnings and people heeding them.

I guess since seeing is believing that we have to do something to further convince people of how bad storm surge can be.

As I announced in a blog post a few months ago, we are going to provide a publicly accessible, brand new, completely redesigned “Surge Cam” that will stream live video from the teeth of the next hurricane and its storm surge. We have been using an older technology for the past seven seasons that ended with Sandy last October. Now, we have new and more effecient technology that will allow us to place un-manned cameras anywhere we wish with almost no risk to either ourselves or to the equipment. We’ve made a decision to make one of these units available through our public Ustream channel at no cost to those who watch. The idea is to show people the effects of storm surge and convince them through live video that storm surge is a lethal, destructive force. We hope to place the Surge Cam in an area where a significant impact from storm surge is expected. The new camera systems last for at least 30 hours now, allowing us more time to place them in locations that no humans have any business being in as the hurricane and its surge sweep in. Perhaps this will help to motivate people to evacuate and take the appropriate measures to mitigate loss to property as well.

We will have three other Surge Cams dedicated to our Client Services members – after all, it’s their funding that supports this effort in the first place. We just thought it would serve the public and local officials, as well as the media, to provide one Surge Cam feed free of charge. Thanks to advances in technology, we can do that starting this season. Once we have a threat of a landfall, I’ll post the URL of the Surge Cam in a blog post and on our Twitter and Facebook pages. People are encouraged to share and embed the player as much as they wish. Anyone in the media may use the feed on-air and on their websites as they see fit. Just credit HurricaneTrack.com please – that’s all we ask.

It looks like a very busy season ahead. I hope that folks along the coast, especially newcomers, do their part to better understand the risk from tropical storms and hurricanes. For more info, including excellent video resources, check out the NHC’s preparedness page here: NHC Hurricane Preparedness