Tropical wave headed for Lesser Antilles, not expected to develop

Vigorous Tropical Wave That Will Affect the Lesser Antilles in a Few Days

Vigorous Tropical Wave That Will Affect the Lesser Antilles in a Few Days

The tropics are busy, sure, but with no threats to land, there is probably not much interest in what’s going on out there. However, we do have a tropical wave that has flared up in recent days that is bound for the Caribbean Sea.

While none of the global models develop this wave to any significance, it will likely bring a period of squally weather to portions of the Lesser Antilles in the coming days. This is probably one of the last of the vigorous tropical waves that we will see for a while as the season is progressing towards favoring the western parts of the Atlantic Basin rather than the region between Africa and the Islands.

Meanwhile, hurricane Nadine continues to move away from the U.S. and could be an issue for the Azores Islands several days down the road. In fact, the global models suggest that it will linger in the Atlantic for perhaps another 10 days. Sometimes these systems get stuck in the current pattern and can hang on for days on end.

The east Pacific has TS Kristy which is falling apart off the Baja and TD #12-E which is not expected to impact land as it strengthens some and moves generally northwest with time.

I’ll have more here tomorrow. Be sure to catch the video blog for today which has been uploaded to our iPhone app.

Share

New hurricane documentary in the works; hoping for your help to support it

It has been four years since I last produced a DVD about hurricanes. The “Tracking the Hurricanes” trilogy has proven to be very successful and I still get orders from them from people all over the world. Many of the chapters from the DVDs are on YouTube and some have had over 600,000 views. I enjoy making the programs that tell the stories of our work during those incredible seasons of 2004, 2005 and 2008. Now it is time for something new.

I have begun working with colleague Mike Watkins to produce The Hurricane Highway. It will be a documentary that takes a look at the people, the places and the hurricanes that have come to define our generation in profound ways. The project will explore the nature of why we are so fascinated by hurricanes and how little we still understand them.

It will also dig deep in to the history of the modern hurricane era through stories from the people who have lived through the likes of Fran, Isabel, Charley, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Ike and Isaac. This will not be about survival. We’ve seen those stories. This will be about life after the hurricanes. There are stories out there that will amaze and move you. We have met people along our journeys down this highway that have more strength in them than I could ever hope to have. I want to make sure their triumphs over such calamity are not lost with the passage of time.

We will also talk about technology and how it has both helped and hindered the effort to warn people and spread a culture of preparedness instead of one of reacting after the fact.

You will hear from some big names in the business of hurricanes and weather. You’ll also hear from people who live in small coastal towns that were virtually unheard of until Katrina or Ivan or similar hurricane events.

Hurricanes are a part of American history whether we like it or not. They shape our economy, sometimes suddenly (think gas prices after Katrina). Politics and hurricanes are the topic of many a Sunday news magazine show. We won’t delve too much in to politics but we know the history and the lessons learned from past responses by the government.

Our goal will be to take you down the Hurricane Highway and show you a side to the hurricane phenomenon that you have never seen before. Through the use of archival footage and compelling stories from real people who endure long after the wind dies down, you will be moved by what you see and hear.

The documentary will be made available on DVD video as well as put on to the iTunes store and hopefully other Internet-based movie sources.

The release date has not been determined yet but it will be no later than March 1, 2013. If all goes REALLY well, it could be as soon as this December. A lot of the footage we already have from past hurricanes. The tough part will be getting the interviews done and editing it all together with our own original music score (I do the music myself for all of our DVDs). There’s a chance that luck will be with us and we get it done before Christmas – which would be great. If not, we want to do it right and will wait until March 1 for an official release. Either way, I’ll keep you posted.

We are very excited about the project and will certainly be calling upon our audience for ideas, possible interview topics etc. We may even need help locating certain people whom we ran across many moons ago and would like to talk to now to see how things are going. Mike and I will shoot in Florida, the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas over the next 4 to 6 weeks. We will have meet and greets along the way to say hello to folks in person who have followed our work all these years.

We know we have a loyal following who have enjoyed our DVDs from the past. With this in mind, I have a unique offer to help raise the $$$ needed to fund this project. For the first 100 people who purchase a copy in advance, as in now, you will receive a credit in the DVD ending credits. Your name, or the name of a loved one, will appear in a “Special Thanks Go To Those Who Supported This Project” as the ending credits roll. In addition, you will receive an autographed copy of the DVD along with a gorgeous 11″ by 17″ movie poster of the artwork for the project. The cost is only $29.95 and the investment can be used immediately by us to get started with shooting, travel and other expenses related to producing an independent film. If you wish to contribute more, by all means feel free to do so. Simply send to our PayPal address: posters@hurricanetrack.com with a note that you wish to support the project.

The Hurricane Highway advance order page.

The Hurricane Highway

The Hurricane Highway

Share

Nadine strengthening but poses no threat to land; might be a while before anything develops to be concerned about

TS Nadine Gaining Strength in the Open Atlantic

TS Nadine Gaining Strength in the Open Atlantic

Tropical storm Nadine is quickly ramping up and should be a hurricane fairly soon. It is situated in a favorable pattern with warm sea surface temps to work with and I think it will become the second category three hurricane of the season at some point.

No worries though, Nadine is never going to get much past 55W before turning north and northeast. It could eventually pose a threat to the Azores but that is probably a week away or more.

Nadine represents a continuation of the pattern that has allowed numerous hurricanes to form and turn harmlessly out in to the Atlantic. Sure a few have impacted Bermuda or the East Coast in recent years but most have not come close enough to warrant much concern. I see this pattern remaining in place for any eastern Atlantic development for perhaps the remainder of the season. It won’t be until the natural evolution of development to shift back to the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf in the latter half of the month that we might have something to track closer to land areas.

GFS Indicating a Possible Return to Favorable MJO Conditions in the Coming Two Weeks

GFS Indicating a Possible Return to Favorable MJO Conditions in the Coming Two Weeks

In fact, the MJO phase may come right in to those regions as indicated by some of the long range model guidance. This would time quite well with the shift in pattern that occurs this time of year. For now, however, the Atlantic Basin has nothing aimed towards land, at least not on the western side.

In the east Pacific, tropical storm Kristy formed today not too far off of Mexico and will move away from land and towards cooler water. In this region, the upper pattern has mostly favored westward moving storms and hurricanes and this pattern is likely to also continue for the next several weeks.

Be sure to read tomorrow’s blog post as I will have a very special announcement regarding a major project that we are about to undertake. I am actually announcing it to our private clients tonight at 8pm ET so if you’re a member, be sure to log in and watch the live announcement on the main Client Services homepage. Then, tomorrow morning, I’ll have a big write up on what we’re up to. I am very excited about it and think that you will be too!

Share

Nadine forms in central Atlantic; won’t be of any concern except to shipping lanes

TS Nadine is the 14th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

TS Nadine is the 14th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

We are now up to 14 named storms for the season as the large tropical wave that emerged from Africa a few days ago is now TS Nadine. Top winds are 40 mph and it is expected to become a hurricane over the next few days.

There is no reason to worry about Nadine as it will likely never get past 50W longitude due to the abnormally weak subtropical ridge that has seemingly been in place for the past four years. This absence of deep layer ridging has kept a majority of the hurricanes that have formed far away from the U.S. and other land masses in the western Atlantic Basin. The only issue Nadine will pose is to shipping lanes. We might see an increase in swells along the East Coast and Bermuda if Nadine grows strong enough and large enough. We’ll just have to wait and see about that.

The rest of the Atlantic is nice and quiet and I see no threats to land over the next five to seven days.

Large Area of Disturbed Weather in the East Pacific off the Coast of Mexico

Large Area of Disturbed Weather in the East Pacific off the Coast of Mexico

In the eastern Pacific, there is a large area of disturbed weather just off the coast of Mexico that has a good shot at becoming a tropical depression soon. It should move generally west-northwest and away from Mexico.

I will have more here tomorrow as we look in to the latter half of the season and what to look for in the weeks ahead.

Share

Tropics very busy on this peak day of the season

Leslie and Michael both at fairly high latitudes as seen on this recent satellite image

Leslie and Michael both at fairly high latitudes as seen on this recent satellite image

September 10 is regarded as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and today is no exception. We have Leslie, Michael and a new tropical depression forming in the east Atlantic which should go on to become tropical storm Nadine.

The only system that will affect land is Leslie. Top winds are still below hurricane strength but Leslie is such a large storm that its effects will reach Newfoundland well ahead of the center. In fact, the center is of little consequence due to the general lack of an inner core. The wind field is spread out over a very large area and this means tropical storm force winds or higher will spread in to the region and last for several hours. Leslie will also bring heavy rains to the area but at least it will be moving quite quickly.

It is interesting to note that the 5-day NHC forecast map shows the remnants of Leslie passing very close to Iceland, of all places, by day 5. By then, the storm will be transitioned from a warm-core cyclone to one that has its energy spread over a wide area with a more or less level temperature throughout. Tropical cyclones are warmer the closer to their centers you get. I think this is a great example of how tropical cyclones remove heat from the tropics and disperse it towards the poles.

Elsewhere, hurricane Michael continues to churn along at a high latitude with winds near 80 mph this morning. It is forecast to eventually turn north and northeast and should not pose any problems to land areas. However, its energy will also translate north in to the far reaches of the North Atlantic, perhaps reaching portions of Europe before all is said and done.

Then we have invest 91L which is likely to become tropical storm Nadine later this week. No worries about this system as the pattern currently in place does not favor significant westward tracks of eastern Atlantic tropical cyclones. I think that we will not see any threats to the U.S. or Caribbean until after the 20th of the month when the pattern begins to change some. This is a natural evolution in the season as development areas shift from the deep tropical Atlantic towards the western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. If we factor in the non-event that the growing El Nino has turned out to be, then I believe we can expect a fairly active late September and early October. For now, with the exception of Leslie, none of the existing tropical systems will impact land areas.

Share