It’s October and climatology would suggest that we would be looking in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico for the best chance of development right now. While this may be the favored region, the tropical Atlantic is not quite ready to shut down just yet and we may actually see something develop out that way over the next several days.
Right now, the MJO pulse for enhanced upward motion and tropical convection is still weak and centered over the west Pacific. However, it looks as though the MJO will strengthen and begin to shift eastward around the tropics, heading in to the Western Hemisphere soon.
Add to this an existing area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the deep tropical Atlantic and we may yet see another named storm before all is said and done. The arrival of the favorable MJO pattern could be the spark needed to get this disturbance, actually labeled as 98L, to spin up and be some thing to track.
Looking at the various global models, the GFS seems to be the most ambitious with development though it does not take place until about a week out. I am leery about putting too much faith in any model that indicates development that far out in time. However, considering the favorable conditions that look to be present, I would not rule out the possibility that we will in fact see 98L slowly come together over the next several days.
In addition, it looks like the steering pattern will more typical of summer than fall and as such, 98L may track fairly far to the west over time and not turn out to the open Atlantic like Nadine and Oscar did. I suggest that interests in the Lesser Antilles pay close attention to 98L over the next week. It is possible that some impacts will be felt in the islands but to what extent, it’s hard to say.
Elsewhere, 97L remains off the coast of the Southeast U.S. and is bringing showers and some thunderstorms to the Bahamas but that’s going to be the limit of the impact from this system. Upper level winds will preclude any significant additional development.
In the east Pacific, TS Olivia will track south of west in the coming days and fizzle over the cooler Pacific waters. In fact, the Pacific is quite a bit cooler than the major climate models were predicting for this time of year, a sign that the much talked about El Nino has not come to pass. This may have an impact on the remaining weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season since El Nino conditions typically thwart late season Atlantic/Caribbean development. There are no other areas of interest in the east Pacific to monitor right now.
For those who have our iPhone app, be sure to catch today’s Hurricane Outlook video which will be posted within the hour. I’ll go over in extensive detail all of the topics in the blog post plus take a look at the state of the ENSO and how much the Pacific has cooled in recent weeks. I’ll have more here tomorrow.