TS Nadine is the 14th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
We are now up to 14 named storms for the season as the large tropical wave that emerged from Africa a few days ago is now TS Nadine. Top winds are 40 mph and it is expected to become a hurricane over the next few days.
There is no reason to worry about Nadine as it will likely never get past 50W longitude due to the abnormally weak subtropical ridge that has seemingly been in place for the past four years. This absence of deep layer ridging has kept a majority of the hurricanes that have formed far away from the U.S. and other land masses in the western Atlantic Basin. The only issue Nadine will pose is to shipping lanes. We might see an increase in swells along the East Coast and Bermuda if Nadine grows strong enough and large enough. We’ll just have to wait and see about that.
The rest of the Atlantic is nice and quiet and I see no threats to land over the next five to seven days.
Large Area of Disturbed Weather in the East Pacific off the Coast of Mexico
In the eastern Pacific, there is a large area of disturbed weather just off the coast of Mexico that has a good shot at becoming a tropical depression soon. It should move generally west-northwest and away from Mexico.
I will have more here tomorrow as we look in to the latter half of the season and what to look for in the weeks ahead.
Leslie and Michael both at fairly high latitudes as seen on this recent satellite image
September 10 is regarded as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and today is no exception. We have Leslie, Michael and a new tropical depression forming in the east Atlantic which should go on to become tropical storm Nadine.
The only system that will affect land is Leslie. Top winds are still below hurricane strength but Leslie is such a large storm that its effects will reach Newfoundland well ahead of the center. In fact, the center is of little consequence due to the general lack of an inner core. The wind field is spread out over a very large area and this means tropical storm force winds or higher will spread in to the region and last for several hours. Leslie will also bring heavy rains to the area but at least it will be moving quite quickly.
It is interesting to note that the 5-day NHC forecast map shows the remnants of Leslie passing very close to Iceland, of all places, by day 5. By then, the storm will be transitioned from a warm-core cyclone to one that has its energy spread over a wide area with a more or less level temperature throughout. Tropical cyclones are warmer the closer to their centers you get. I think this is a great example of how tropical cyclones remove heat from the tropics and disperse it towards the poles.
Elsewhere, hurricane Michael continues to churn along at a high latitude with winds near 80 mph this morning. It is forecast to eventually turn north and northeast and should not pose any problems to land areas. However, its energy will also translate north in to the far reaches of the North Atlantic, perhaps reaching portions of Europe before all is said and done.
Then we have invest 91L which is likely to become tropical storm Nadine later this week. No worries about this system as the pattern currently in place does not favor significant westward tracks of eastern Atlantic tropical cyclones. I think that we will not see any threats to the U.S. or Caribbean until after the 20th of the month when the pattern begins to change some. This is a natural evolution in the season as development areas shift from the deep tropical Atlantic towards the western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. If we factor in the non-event that the growing El Nino has turned out to be, then I believe we can expect a fairly active late September and early October. For now, with the exception of Leslie, none of the existing tropical systems will impact land areas.
Leslie could remain a poweful storm or hurricane as it makes landfall in Newfoundland
As expected, the effects of Leslie on Bermuda were not much more than a few power outages and some minor vegetative damage from the large circulation of the tropical storm. The weather will improve significantly by tomorrow as Leslie finally picks up some forward speed and moves out of the area.
However, now it’s time for Newfoundland to be ready and this could mean getting ready for quite an impact. The NHC mentions on their most recent update that Leslie could be transitioning from a tropical cyclone to an extratropical cyclone at about the time it makes landfall in Newfoundland. This means it is possible for hurricane conditions to be felt in the region as Leslie moves through. One key here is that the wind field will likely expand with this transition even though it looks as if Leslie already has an enormous wind field. Folks in Newfoundland will feel the effects from Leslie well before any center it has left arrives.
Elsewhere, 91L in the east Atlantic is taking its time to develop and when/if it does, I highly doubt it will get past 60 W longitude as this is the pattern we seem to be in right now. Obviously, we’ll watch it closely but I do not see any indication from the long range models that we’ll see any threats from the east Atlantic anytime soon.
I’ll have more here on Leslie and its expected effects for Newfoundland on tomorrow morning’s blog post. Be sure to check the HurricaneTrack app this evening for today’s video blog that was recently posted.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Climatology
We are almost to the half-way point of the hurricane season, at least from a climatological perspective. Over the past 100 years of all tropical cyclones, it seems that September 10 is the tip of iceberg and this year, it will be no different. We have two named storms out there with Leslie and Michael as well as a new area of interest, 91L, just off the coast of Africa. The peak of the season will indeed be a busy one this year.
However, the impacts from all of this activity will likely be minimal. Leslie is still struggling and should pass Bermuda well to the east, bringing only passing showers and a few squalls at most. Of course, the surf will be up, but that’s the extent of it and certainly great news for Bermuda. It also looks like Newfoundland will escape any major impacts from Leslie as the forecast for track and intensity are much more favorable than what it looked like a few days ago.
The rest of the tropics are busy but I do not see any threats to land from anything over the next five days at least. In fact, the MJO is quite unfavorable right now which means sinking, converging air over much of the western Atlantic Basin. We should see a nice quiet period before things ramp up again towards the last half of the month.
I’ll have more here tomorrow. Be sure to check the HurricaneTrack app for today’s video blog which covers all of the above-mentioned info. Don’t have our app? Get it now from the app store.
A Busy Map With No Significant Threats to Worry About
A look at the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook map and it would seem that things are quite busy as we end the first full week of September. Busy is relative. While there is plenty to track, there are no significant threats to land areas, not even from Leslie.
As it turns out, the upwelling of colder water underneath the slow moving storm has taken a toll on the energy available for it to generate deep convection. This may change as Leslie moves a little faster and over warmer sea surface temps this weekend. As a result, it is possible that Leslie will become a hurricane again but no worries, Bermuda will be just fine and it looks like Newfoundland will as well. Just keep in mind the large swells that are continuing to radiate out from Leslie towards Bermuda and much of the East Coast of the U.S.
Elsewhere, the area in the Gulf of Mexico, 90L, is dwindling away and will not be an issue.
I will be watching a new area of interest just emerging off of Africa now as it has potential for development over the next several days. Odds are it will just turn north somewhere near 60 W longitude but this is not a 100% guarantee.
We are coming up on the peak time of the hurricane season and so far the numbers of named storms and hurricanes is fairly impressive. We have a lot of hurricane season left and the need to remain alert and prepared is certainly there. For this weekend, it looks great out there along our coastal regions. Go enjoy it.