Tropics nice and quiet except for pesky Nadine

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf are Mostly Quiet with the Exception of TS Nadine Near the Azores

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf are Mostly Quiet with the Exception of TS Nadine Near the Azores

The Atlantic Basin is unusually quiet for this time of the hurricane season and I do not see that changing anytime soon.

We are tracking TS Nadine out near the Azores but that’s it and even Nadine is not that much of an issue.

Some people are blaming El Nino for the quietness, I do not think that the tropical Pacific is really all that warm compared to normal and we are certainly not in an official El Nino period as of yet. In fact, the central Pacific SST anomalies cooled by .30 degrees C in the recent week – and this is also not typical of an El Nino. So what is the reason behind the quiet time? It’s most likely the MJO phase which is currently not favorable in the Atlantic Basin. In other words, we are not in a pattern that supports upward motion in the tropics across the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The lack of instability and generally unfavorable conditions are simply not allowing for any new development.

Looking at the long range models, I do not see any signs of change over the next week to 10 days either. We may escape September with no additional named storms in the Atlantic.

As for October? We’ll wait and see. Without a solid El Nino in place, it is possible that we could have a normal October with a couple of hurricanes developing somewhere – but that’s the key, where? Time will tell. For now, the tropics are of little concern and look to stay that way for quite some time.

Be sure to catch today’s video blog in our iPhone app as it covers these topics graphically. Also, we are anticipating a new update to the app within the next few days that I will address in tomorrow’s blog post.

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No worries from the tropics this week unless you live in the Azores

Heavy Rains Streaming North Out of the Gulf of Mexico

Heavy Rains Streaming North Out of the Gulf of Mexico

The tropics are of little concern as we begin the week and the second half of September. The two areas of interest, 92L and 93L, have both become non-issues within the last several hours and development is not expected from either system.

However, copious amounts of rain are headed in to the central Gulf Coast region and throughout much of the East over the next few days as a cold front taps deep tropical moisture. Be aware of this heavy rain threat and drive with caution if you’re caught in any of these downpours. With the change of seasons beginning to progress, these cooler air masses can squeeze out plenty of water since the Gulf of Mexico is still very warm.

The only item of interest this week continues to be Nadine which will still be on the map this time next week it looks like. Folks in the Azores Islands may have to deal with some of the effects from the storm as it meanders slowly in the eastern Atlantic. Nadine’s longevity will add several more ACE points which stands Accumulated Cyclone Energy. This is a more accurate measure of how much energy was expended by this season’s tropical storms and hurricanes. Right now, we are just above 80 which is about what was expected for this season by most forecast entities. I think we will likely see another hurricane or two before the season is finished, adding another 10 to 20 points for the year. We have already had eight hurricanes, about two more than the 100 year average. Fortunately, no intense hurricanes have affected land thus far and I do not see that changing anytime soon.

In the east Pacific, the NHC is tracking hurricane Lane which is well out to the southwest of the Baja and poses no threat to land. There are no other areas of interest in the east Pacific right now and things should remain quiet there for the next several days.

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A lot of rain for the eastern 3rd of U.S. but no tropical troubles per se

A lot of rain heading for the East as deep moisture rides out of the warm Gulf of Mexico

A lot of rain heading for the East as deep moisture rides out of the warm Gulf of Mexico

The tropics are busy with hurricane Nadine and now two areas of interest, 92L and 93L, to keep an eye on over the coming days.

However, conditions are just not ripe for anything significant to develop across much of the western and central Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico. A combination of dry mid-level air and fairly high wind shear should limit any development of either of these two invest areas.

Meanwhile, hurricane Nadine is stuck in the pattern it seems and will be bothering the Azores Islands this week with possible hurricane conditions. After that, Nadine is going nowhere fast as the steering flow is such that we could be talking about it a week from now; still out over the eastern Atlantic.

One side effect of 93L in the western Gulf is its moisture that will feed in to an approaching cold front sweeping across Texas right now. Plenty of deep moisture will be lifted north and east over the week ahead and with it, the chance for heavy rains across portions of the eastern U.S., especially in the mountains. Just be aware of this as too much rain in short order can cause quick flooding problems.

We’ll watch 92L as it moves in to and across the Caribbean Sea. This is the time of year to look for development in that region but as of now, none of the dynamic global models indicate much at all.

I have covered all of this and more in our daily video blog for the HurricaneTrack app for iPhone. If you own it, check it out now. If not, get the app today via the link above or by searching “hurricanetrack” in the app store from your device. I’ll have much more here tomorrow morning.

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Tropical wave headed for Lesser Antilles, not expected to develop

Vigorous Tropical Wave That Will Affect the Lesser Antilles in a Few Days

Vigorous Tropical Wave That Will Affect the Lesser Antilles in a Few Days

The tropics are busy, sure, but with no threats to land, there is probably not much interest in what’s going on out there. However, we do have a tropical wave that has flared up in recent days that is bound for the Caribbean Sea.

While none of the global models develop this wave to any significance, it will likely bring a period of squally weather to portions of the Lesser Antilles in the coming days. This is probably one of the last of the vigorous tropical waves that we will see for a while as the season is progressing towards favoring the western parts of the Atlantic Basin rather than the region between Africa and the Islands.

Meanwhile, hurricane Nadine continues to move away from the U.S. and could be an issue for the Azores Islands several days down the road. In fact, the global models suggest that it will linger in the Atlantic for perhaps another 10 days. Sometimes these systems get stuck in the current pattern and can hang on for days on end.

The east Pacific has TS Kristy which is falling apart off the Baja and TD #12-E which is not expected to impact land as it strengthens some and moves generally northwest with time.

I’ll have more here tomorrow. Be sure to catch the video blog for today which has been uploaded to our iPhone app.

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New hurricane documentary in the works; hoping for your help to support it

It has been four years since I last produced a DVD about hurricanes. The “Tracking the Hurricanes” trilogy has proven to be very successful and I still get orders from them from people all over the world. Many of the chapters from the DVDs are on YouTube and some have had over 600,000 views. I enjoy making the programs that tell the stories of our work during those incredible seasons of 2004, 2005 and 2008. Now it is time for something new.

I have begun working with colleague Mike Watkins to produce The Hurricane Highway. It will be a documentary that takes a look at the people, the places and the hurricanes that have come to define our generation in profound ways. The project will explore the nature of why we are so fascinated by hurricanes and how little we still understand them.

It will also dig deep in to the history of the modern hurricane era through stories from the people who have lived through the likes of Fran, Isabel, Charley, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Ike and Isaac. This will not be about survival. We’ve seen those stories. This will be about life after the hurricanes. There are stories out there that will amaze and move you. We have met people along our journeys down this highway that have more strength in them than I could ever hope to have. I want to make sure their triumphs over such calamity are not lost with the passage of time.

We will also talk about technology and how it has both helped and hindered the effort to warn people and spread a culture of preparedness instead of one of reacting after the fact.

You will hear from some big names in the business of hurricanes and weather. You’ll also hear from people who live in small coastal towns that were virtually unheard of until Katrina or Ivan or similar hurricane events.

Hurricanes are a part of American history whether we like it or not. They shape our economy, sometimes suddenly (think gas prices after Katrina). Politics and hurricanes are the topic of many a Sunday news magazine show. We won’t delve too much in to politics but we know the history and the lessons learned from past responses by the government.

Our goal will be to take you down the Hurricane Highway and show you a side to the hurricane phenomenon that you have never seen before. Through the use of archival footage and compelling stories from real people who endure long after the wind dies down, you will be moved by what you see and hear.

The documentary will be made available on DVD video as well as put on to the iTunes store and hopefully other Internet-based movie sources.

The release date has not been determined yet but it will be no later than March 1, 2013. If all goes REALLY well, it could be as soon as this December. A lot of the footage we already have from past hurricanes. The tough part will be getting the interviews done and editing it all together with our own original music score (I do the music myself for all of our DVDs). There’s a chance that luck will be with us and we get it done before Christmas – which would be great. If not, we want to do it right and will wait until March 1 for an official release. Either way, I’ll keep you posted.

We are very excited about the project and will certainly be calling upon our audience for ideas, possible interview topics etc. We may even need help locating certain people whom we ran across many moons ago and would like to talk to now to see how things are going. Mike and I will shoot in Florida, the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas over the next 4 to 6 weeks. We will have meet and greets along the way to say hello to folks in person who have followed our work all these years.

We know we have a loyal following who have enjoyed our DVDs from the past. With this in mind, I have a unique offer to help raise the $$$ needed to fund this project. For the first 100 people who purchase a copy in advance, as in now, you will receive a credit in the DVD ending credits. Your name, or the name of a loved one, will appear in a “Special Thanks Go To Those Who Supported This Project” as the ending credits roll. In addition, you will receive an autographed copy of the DVD along with a gorgeous 11″ by 17″ movie poster of the artwork for the project. The cost is only $29.95 and the investment can be used immediately by us to get started with shooting, travel and other expenses related to producing an independent film. If you wish to contribute more, by all means feel free to do so. Simply send to our PayPal address: posters@hurricanetrack.com with a note that you wish to support the project.

The Hurricane Highway advance order page.

The Hurricane Highway

The Hurricane Highway

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