TS Nadine Gaining Strength in the Open Atlantic
Tropical storm Nadine is quickly ramping up and should be a hurricane fairly soon. It is situated in a favorable pattern with warm sea surface temps to work with and I think it will become the second category three hurricane of the season at some point.
No worries though, Nadine is never going to get much past 55W before turning north and northeast. It could eventually pose a threat to the Azores but that is probably a week away or more.
Nadine represents a continuation of the pattern that has allowed numerous hurricanes to form and turn harmlessly out in to the Atlantic. Sure a few have impacted Bermuda or the East Coast in recent years but most have not come close enough to warrant much concern. I see this pattern remaining in place for any eastern Atlantic development for perhaps the remainder of the season. It won’t be until the natural evolution of development to shift back to the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf in the latter half of the month that we might have something to track closer to land areas.
GFS Indicating a Possible Return to Favorable MJO Conditions in the Coming Two Weeks
In fact, the MJO phase may come right in to those regions as indicated by some of the long range model guidance. This would time quite well with the shift in pattern that occurs this time of year. For now, however, the Atlantic Basin has nothing aimed towards land, at least not on the western side.
In the east Pacific, tropical storm Kristy formed today not too far off of Mexico and will move away from land and towards cooler water. In this region, the upper pattern has mostly favored westward moving storms and hurricanes and this pattern is likely to also continue for the next several weeks.
Be sure to read tomorrow’s blog post as I will have a very special announcement regarding a major project that we are about to undertake. I am actually announcing it to our private clients tonight at 8pm ET so if you’re a member, be sure to log in and watch the live announcement on the main Client Services homepage. Then, tomorrow morning, I’ll have a big write up on what we’re up to. I am very excited about it and think that you will be too!
TS Nadine is the 14th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
We are now up to 14 named storms for the season as the large tropical wave that emerged from Africa a few days ago is now TS Nadine. Top winds are 40 mph and it is expected to become a hurricane over the next few days.
There is no reason to worry about Nadine as it will likely never get past 50W longitude due to the abnormally weak subtropical ridge that has seemingly been in place for the past four years. This absence of deep layer ridging has kept a majority of the hurricanes that have formed far away from the U.S. and other land masses in the western Atlantic Basin. The only issue Nadine will pose is to shipping lanes. We might see an increase in swells along the East Coast and Bermuda if Nadine grows strong enough and large enough. We’ll just have to wait and see about that.
The rest of the Atlantic is nice and quiet and I see no threats to land over the next five to seven days.
Large Area of Disturbed Weather in the East Pacific off the Coast of Mexico
In the eastern Pacific, there is a large area of disturbed weather just off the coast of Mexico that has a good shot at becoming a tropical depression soon. It should move generally west-northwest and away from Mexico.
I will have more here tomorrow as we look in to the latter half of the season and what to look for in the weeks ahead.
Leslie and Michael both at fairly high latitudes as seen on this recent satellite image
September 10 is regarded as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and today is no exception. We have Leslie, Michael and a new tropical depression forming in the east Atlantic which should go on to become tropical storm Nadine.
The only system that will affect land is Leslie. Top winds are still below hurricane strength but Leslie is such a large storm that its effects will reach Newfoundland well ahead of the center. In fact, the center is of little consequence due to the general lack of an inner core. The wind field is spread out over a very large area and this means tropical storm force winds or higher will spread in to the region and last for several hours. Leslie will also bring heavy rains to the area but at least it will be moving quite quickly.
It is interesting to note that the 5-day NHC forecast map shows the remnants of Leslie passing very close to Iceland, of all places, by day 5. By then, the storm will be transitioned from a warm-core cyclone to one that has its energy spread over a wide area with a more or less level temperature throughout. Tropical cyclones are warmer the closer to their centers you get. I think this is a great example of how tropical cyclones remove heat from the tropics and disperse it towards the poles.
Elsewhere, hurricane Michael continues to churn along at a high latitude with winds near 80 mph this morning. It is forecast to eventually turn north and northeast and should not pose any problems to land areas. However, its energy will also translate north in to the far reaches of the North Atlantic, perhaps reaching portions of Europe before all is said and done.
Then we have invest 91L which is likely to become tropical storm Nadine later this week. No worries about this system as the pattern currently in place does not favor significant westward tracks of eastern Atlantic tropical cyclones. I think that we will not see any threats to the U.S. or Caribbean until after the 20th of the month when the pattern begins to change some. This is a natural evolution in the season as development areas shift from the deep tropical Atlantic towards the western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. If we factor in the non-event that the growing El Nino has turned out to be, then I believe we can expect a fairly active late September and early October. For now, with the exception of Leslie, none of the existing tropical systems will impact land areas.
Leslie could remain a poweful storm or hurricane as it makes landfall in Newfoundland
As expected, the effects of Leslie on Bermuda were not much more than a few power outages and some minor vegetative damage from the large circulation of the tropical storm. The weather will improve significantly by tomorrow as Leslie finally picks up some forward speed and moves out of the area.
However, now it’s time for Newfoundland to be ready and this could mean getting ready for quite an impact. The NHC mentions on their most recent update that Leslie could be transitioning from a tropical cyclone to an extratropical cyclone at about the time it makes landfall in Newfoundland. This means it is possible for hurricane conditions to be felt in the region as Leslie moves through. One key here is that the wind field will likely expand with this transition even though it looks as if Leslie already has an enormous wind field. Folks in Newfoundland will feel the effects from Leslie well before any center it has left arrives.
Elsewhere, 91L in the east Atlantic is taking its time to develop and when/if it does, I highly doubt it will get past 60 W longitude as this is the pattern we seem to be in right now. Obviously, we’ll watch it closely but I do not see any indication from the long range models that we’ll see any threats from the east Atlantic anytime soon.
I’ll have more here on Leslie and its expected effects for Newfoundland on tomorrow morning’s blog post. Be sure to check the HurricaneTrack app this evening for today’s video blog that was recently posted.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Climatology
We are almost to the half-way point of the hurricane season, at least from a climatological perspective. Over the past 100 years of all tropical cyclones, it seems that September 10 is the tip of iceberg and this year, it will be no different. We have two named storms out there with Leslie and Michael as well as a new area of interest, 91L, just off the coast of Africa. The peak of the season will indeed be a busy one this year.
However, the impacts from all of this activity will likely be minimal. Leslie is still struggling and should pass Bermuda well to the east, bringing only passing showers and a few squalls at most. Of course, the surf will be up, but that’s the extent of it and certainly great news for Bermuda. It also looks like Newfoundland will escape any major impacts from Leslie as the forecast for track and intensity are much more favorable than what it looked like a few days ago.
The rest of the tropics are busy but I do not see any threats to land from anything over the next five days at least. In fact, the MJO is quite unfavorable right now which means sinking, converging air over much of the western Atlantic Basin. We should see a nice quiet period before things ramp up again towards the last half of the month.
I’ll have more here tomorrow. Be sure to check the HurricaneTrack app for today’s video blog which covers all of the above-mentioned info. Don’t have our app? Get it now from the app store.