Well it took a bit of time but the tropical wave that we have been watching for the last several days has strengthened to TD #9. It is currently situated well east of the Leeward Islands but will close in rather quickly, bringing tropical storm conditions to the region within 36 hours.
The depression is currently winning the battle against the unusually dry air that has been in place all hurricane season across the deep tropics. Now that it is moving across ocean heat content that is considerably higher than in recent days, the amount of energy needed to fuel the deep convection is in place. Keep in mind that sea surface temperatures and heat content only increase ahead of the soon-to-be storm (which will be Isaac).
Interests in the Leewards need to be ready for a strengthening tropical storm and a large one at that. This means squally weather, heavy rains and winds gusting to near hurricane force in less than 48 hours.
Once past the Lesser Antilles, what would presumably be Isaac is forecast by the NHC to pass south of Puerto Rico and just clip portions of Hispaniola as it heads to a position just south of Cuba in five days. Now this part is extremely important. If the cyclone remains far enough south of these land masses, it could strengthen quite a bit. On the other hand, if the delicate circulation gets tangled up within the mountains of the Greater Antilles, it would almost certainly result in a weaker, disrupted storm/hurricane. The next few days will be critical in terms of what happens next.
I know it is natural to want to know what happens after the five day forecast period. There are certainly plenty of sites that have long range models available. Let’s just say that interests in Florida and indeed the Southeast U.S. as a whole need to watch the progress of this developing system very closely. There are some indications in the long range guidance that it could end up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico while other models suggest a path east of Florida. So there is the problem. It’s just too far out to even worry about right now. My best advice is to monitor and be ready to act. You should already have a hurricane plan in place for just such an event. If not, you better be ready, if not for this one, then for the rest of the season ahead.
We will have a lot more information in the coming days as recon planes from NOAA and the Air Force will be checking the system out thoroughly. This information will help to make the forecasts even better and will give us all the detail we need to prepare accordingly.
I would also like to remind our readers that we do have an app in the App Store that is available for purchase. It is a great way to keep up with the latest from HurricaneTrack.com on your iPhone, iPod Touch or even iPad. The app features this blog, our Twitter posts, Facebook updates, live weather data during landfall missions (might we have one coming up soon?), live web cam images from our own instrumented wind towers, video blogs EXCLUSIVE to our app and even a GPS tracking map to show our location while we are out in the field! To get it now click here. If what is a shoe-in to become Isaac makes landfall in the U.S., our app will literally take you there like nothing you have ever seen in a mobile app! It’s a great way to support our work while getting something innovative and informative in return.
I’ll post another update here later this afternoon. Keep in mind that our private clients who have not logged in this season that we do have our LIVE video briefing at 2pm ET on the Client Services site.