TS Cristobal is not very healthy this morning. Strong northerly winds are pushing the deep thunderstorms, or convection, to the south and southeast, away from the low level center. This means the storm is not getting stronger anytime soon. If the stronger upper level winds let up, then Cristobal has a chance to become the 3rd hurricane of the Atlantic season – which most intensity guidance suggests will happen.
The forecast track continues to indicate a turn to the northeast with time and keeps Cristobal away from the United States and Bermuda.
One effect that I mentioned yesterday, especially if Cristobal becomes a hurricane, is the ocean swells that will roll in and impact the coast this week. Surfers will delight in this but swimmers, especially younger ones and those with little ocean experience, need to be very careful. Rip currents and general dangerous surf conditions could make for a hazardous few days along portions of the East Coast. Your best bet is to ask local life guard officials about the current conditions. Also, you may consult your local NWS homepage for any hazards related to beach conditions.
Meanwhile, we have a new area of interest out in the tropical Atlantic that has potential for development this week. The NHC is giving it a 30% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression within five days. We’ll have plenty of time to monitor this feature as it moves westward this week. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor this tropical wave closely – but you don’t need me to tell you that, it’s that time of year, anything coming out of the deep tropics is worth watching.
Elsewhere, not much going on for the time being but the overall pattern is fairly ripe for development in many areas. Water temps are plenty warm and we are approaching the time of year when we could see several systems develop in a short period of time. Do not be surprised to see quite a bit of activity in the coming weeks – it’s the “where and who” that is difficult to know right now, so keep paying attention on a daily basis at least.
In the east Pacific, hurricane Marie, which peaked out at cat-5 intensity yesterday, is now weakening. The forecast keeps Marie well off the coast of Mexico but powerful ocean swells will impact parts of the region for the next several days. Again, this is great for surfers who can handle such things but swimmers need to be very careful and know their limits.
TS Karina is also on a weakening trend and should fizzle out within the next few days posing no threat to land.
That’s it for today – I’ll have more here tomorrow including my plans to perhaps head out to the NC Outer Banks to cover the ocean swells coming in from Cristobal – especially if it becomes a hurricane. More on this tomorrow morning.
M. Sudduth 10:02 AM ET Aug 25