Tracking Beryl and Chris


It looks as though Beryl has already degenerated in to a tropical wave and is likely no longer a true tropical storm. However, the technical classification won’t matter too much as the effects will generally be the same: gusty winds, periods of heavy rain and locally rough seas as it approaches the Lesser Antilles throughout the day and tonight.

The forecast from the NHC indicates that Beryl will in fact be only a tropical wave by tonight as it moves very quickly in to the eastern Caribbean Sea. From that point on, we will certainly monitor the future progress of the system as there are indications in the model guidance that it may try to stage a comeback once it reaches the southwest Atlantic well east of Florida and the Bahamas. For now, it will be a nuisance event for some of the islands of the eastern Caribbean.


Next we have tropical storm Chris which was upgraded this morning. Top winds are 45 mph and are forecast to increase and Chris is expected to become the season’s second hurricane; well ahead of the climatological norm.

The impacts from the tropical storm will be minimal for the coast of North Carolina and elsewhere since Chris is not going to get any closer at this point. That being said, the threat of rough surf and deadly rip currents will persist for several days and needs to be taken seriously. If there are red flags flying at the beach, it means NO SWIMMING and you really should stay out of the water. I know it’s frustrating but so is planning a funeral, so heed the warnings and use extreme caution if you will be at the beach anywhere along the Carolina coast and eventually the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as the week progresses. Swells from what is likely to be a hurricane will affect a large portion of the East Coast and it’s the height of beach season – just keep this in mind.

As for the future track of Chris, it looks as though it will move quite slowly at first and then move on out to the northeast with potential direct impacts for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later this coming week.

Water temps are quite cold in the region but the warm Gulf Stream will provide plenty of energy to allow Chris to steadily intensify as it moves away from the U.S. coast. It will be losing its warm, tropical characteristics as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes but heavy rain and strong winds are a good bet at some point over the coming days. Let’s see how strong and how well organized Chris becomes over the next couple of days – then we can fine-tune what impacts are to be expected later on.

Elsewhere, the tropics are quiet including the east Pacific which has no threat of development anytime soon.

M. Sudduth 2:10 PM ET July 8


Tropics quite busy for early July with hurricane Beryl and now TD #3

Things are getting busy now in the Atlantic as we track two systems: hurricane Beryl and newly designated tropical depression #3 off the NC coast.

I have prepared a short video summary of both systems and posted it here. Feel free to share as you see fit – especially for those friends and family who might be heading to the beach this weekend along the North Carolina coast. I am worried about an increase in rip currents from the developing storm off the coast – a hazard that is often overlooked when it comes to understanding tropical cyclones.

I’ll post another video discussion here tomorrow afternoon.


Watching invest 95L for development

Ironically this same time last year we had an area of interest in the same general area as we do today – out in the  open tropical Atlantic. However, this season’s background conditions are markedly different than what we observed in 2017.

That being said, we do have a vigorous troplcanwave that has a good chance of developing in to a tropical depression at any time as it moves generally westward across the tropical Atlantic.

Check out my latest video discussion which goes in to more detail about the current and future outlook for this system.

M. Sudduth 8:50 am July 5


Atlantic will remain nice and quiet for several days

East Pacific may be busy but the intensity of the current batch of storms is certainly lacking.

Meanwhile, dust from Africa blankets most of the tropical Atlantic and extends westward in to the Caribbean Sea – typical for this time of year. This will help to keep things nice and quiet for the next several days at least.

I go over all of these topics and more in today’s video discussion.

June 28 Hurricane Outlook and Discussion


Hurricane Bud in east Pacific will bring plenty of moisture to parts of SW U.S.

The east Pacific has seen two category four hurricanes within less than a week. This is quite unusual and fortunately, neither will have major impacts on land areas. However, Bud, now weakening from its peak overnight, will bring tropical storm conditions, including the threat of heavy rain, to portions of the Baja peninsula and mainland Mexico.

After this initial landfall, the remnants of Bud will move across Mexico and provide some relief from the heat over the Desert Southwest. With this relief will come the threat of heavy rain and maybe even thunderstorm activity would could set off flash flooding and even wildfires due to lightning strikes.

I go over all of this, plus a look at invest 91L in the Caribbean Sea, in my latest video discussion posted below.

M. Sudduth 5:20 pm ET June 12