NHC Upgrades TD 16 to TS Nate – future a little uncertain

9:30 AM ET Thursday, October 5

The NHC upgraded the depression to tropical storm Nate via their 8am ET intermediate advisory. The storm is about to cross over the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras and then emerge in to the very warm waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea. From there, Nate could strengthen but how much depends on how well its inner core can consolidate. There are a lot of competing weather systems in the region and this makes the overall forecast very complex.

I have posted a video discussion that covers these topics and more – check it out below. Note: I will post another video update around 5pm ET this afternoon.

M. Sudduth


October looks to begin where September left off: busy

8:10 AM ET Sept 29

NHC 5-Day Tropical Weather Outlook Map

NHC 5-Day Tropical Weather Outlook Map (Click for full size)

It looks like we will continue with the very busy 2017 hurricane season right on in to October. The latest 5-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center indicates that there are a couple of areas of interest to monitor over the next few days.

As Lee and Maria both head out in to the far reaches of the North Atlantic, we will begin focusing more on areas closer to the western part of the basin from here on out. The natural progression of climatology suggests that the region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles becomes less favorable this time of year. As such, we shift our attention more and more to the southwest Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

I will have  full video discussion posted early this afternoon and will go over not only the current systems that are worth watching but also a look in to what October may bring and why.

M. Sudduth



After Maria and Lee, hurricane season far from over

11am ET Thursday September 28

Maria and Lee are moving away from the United States and out in to the open Atlantic. Now we turn our attention to the area of interest near Cuba which is forecast to develop in to “something” off the coast of eastern Florida over the weekend. I have the latest on all of this and more in today’s discussion.

M. Sudduth