October will end very quietly as there are no areas of concern in the Atlantic Basin this week. What about November? The last 30 days of the season are almost here – so what can we expect?
We typically look for development in the western Caribbean where the most concentrated development points over time are seen. However, it is possible get development all over the sub-tropical Atlantic, far from land. Even the east Pacific remains fairly active during November but overall, things begin to really slack off in both basins.
If we do get development in the Atlantic Basin during November, the most likely track is northeast. Sometimes, we do see a blocking ridge of high pressure set up over the Gulf of Mexico, sending anything that gets going westward in to Central America. All in all, November is normally pretty quiet.
As for this November, well, there is at least a small chance of seeing something develop in the Caribbean Sea over the next couple of weeks.
The MJO or Madden-Julian Oscillation is forecast to be quite favorable for upward motion as we get in to the first part of the month. Both the ECMWF and the GFS models show this trend. Looking at the long range model runs, nothing really seems to come along to take advantage of this more favorable upper level pattern. Sure, one run of the GFS may show a tropical storm forming in the long range but it gets dropped during the next run, only to pop up again later on. This inconsistency leads me to believe that we will not see much happening over the next week and probably longer.
There are a couple of fairly strong tropical waves moving across the deep tropics and these will likely impact the Lesser Antilles and other parts of the Caribbean Sea in the coming days. It is possible that one of these could try to develop as the favorable upward motion pattern sets in but again, the global models do really indicate much happening.
We are almost out of the season and one that was originally forecast to be extremely busy with a lot of potential hurricane activity. I know many people are wondering, with a smile on their face, what happened. While I do not know for sure, I have some ideas and will be putting together a special blog post about this for next Monday. I think seasonal forecasting is important as it could lead to better long and medium range forecasting which in turn can greatly reduce the impacts of hurricanes in the future by providing adequate lead time to prepare. I will delve in to this subject quite a bit as I work on this special post coming up for next week. Until then, enjoy the quiet pattern.
M. Sudduth 1:50 PM ET Oct 29