East Pacific and tropical Atlantic becoming active

July is starting off quite busy with areas to watch in both the Atlantic Basin and the east Pacific. Fortunately, none of the systems pose any threat to land and I do not see that changing anytime soon.

The east Pacific system, designated as invest area 94-E is situated well to the southwest off the coast of Mexico and is forecast by the model guidance to continue moving westward and away from land. It may eventually become a tropical storm over the open Pacific but the cooler water temps out ahead of it will be a challenge. None of the intensity models indicate that 94-E will become a hurricane, something that is unusual for this part of the east Pacific but a sign that conditions are not as favorable out that way this season.

In the Atlantic, we are keeping a close eye on invest area 94-L which is located in the deep tropics, about mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.  The NHC is giving it a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days. Curiously, the system is not moving much right now, which is rare to see in the deep tropics in early July. Normally the trades are quite strong across the region and we see tropical waves moving westward at 15-20 mph or faster. The fact that 94-L is moving so slowly indicates that conditions in the tropical Atlantic are quite different than we have seen in recent years – meaning that things are much more favorable for development even this early in July.

I have produced a video discussion covering these topics and more. Check it out via the YouTube video below.

M. Sudduth 1:45 pm July 4, 2017

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July begins with an area to monitor in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific

NHC monitoring tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic for possible development next week.

NHC monitoring tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic for possible development next week.

June is now behind us and we had two named storms form that month: Bret and Cindy. Both had significant impacts despite the overall lack of wind energy (both systems were low-end tropical storms wind-wise) and showed us that, once again, it is the rain that we need to focus more attention on, not the wind.

Now that we are entering the second month of the Atlantic hurricane season, what can we expect? Typically July is a quiet month with little overall threat from hurricanes, especially in the early part of the month. Saharan dust outbreaks and high pressure over the Atlantic tends to keep a lid on things – in most years. Will 2017 follow “most years?” Perhaps not.

The NHC is monitoring a tropical wave way out in the eastern Atlantic that has potential for additional development over the next 5 days. In fact, the odds are at 40% in the longer term which is quite unusual for the early part of July this far east.

Take a look at my latest video blog for a detailed discussion concerning this system plus a look at what the first 10 days of July typically looks like from a climatological perspective.

M. Sudduth 2:10pm ET July 1

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StormGeo hurricane seminar – 28th edition – coming July 20 in Houston

Trpical storm Cindy as seen just prior to landfall in SW Louisiana. Will the early action of Bret and Cindy equal a busy rest of the season ahead? We will disucss at the 28th annual StormGeo Hurricane Seminar on July 20 in Houston, TX.

Trpical storm Cindy as seen just prior to landfall in SW Louisiana. Will the early action of Bret and Cindy equal a busy rest of the season ahead? We will disucss at the 28th annual StormGeo Hurricane Seminar on July 20 in Houston, TX.

Each year I have an opportunity to speak about the work that I do in studying the impacts of hurricanes via various seminars, conferences and symposiums. It allows me to showcase the technology that has been developed to get closer to the dangerous impacts of hurricanes than ever before – all without putting myself or my colleagues in harm’s way. The results of our efforts are always compelling to see on a big screen, emanating from a high-tech projector, almost like a movie premier.

While I enjoy the privilege of speaking and presenting my work, I also relish the opportunities to learn from others. Whether it be about the future of hurricane forecasting or the latest updates from a private sector vendor (think Radarscope) or the stunning first-hand accounts of dealing with typhoons and hurricanes from the likes of Josh Morgerman, these events fuel my inner weather geek like nothing else can (except being in the eye of a hurricane of course).

Before the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season kicks in to high gear, there is one more opportunity coming up – not just for me, but for you as well.

StormGeo, a global weather decision-making, forecasting and analytics company (among other things), is hosting a seminar in fabulous Houston, Texas on July 20. The venue is none other than the brand new Marriott Marquis right in the middle of downtown Houston.

Check out the list of who will be presenting:

  • Sean Sublette from Climate Central (@SeanSublette), “Climate Change Discussion”
  • Mark Sudduth (@HurricaneTrack), “State-of-the-art hurricane data acquisition, recording and live-streaming from inside the hurricane”
  • Dr. Neil Frank, “Climate Change Discussion”
  • Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone), “First-hand view of the consequences of a failure to prepare”
  • Hurricane Response and Business Preparedness Panel discussion with execs from:
  • Whataburger, Belarmino Castellanos, @Whataburger
  • Texas Children’s Hospital, James Mitchell, @TexasChildrens
  • USAA, Rob Galbraith, @robgalb, @USAA
  • StormReady Certification with the NWS’ Dan Reilly, #StormReady, #WeatherReadyNation
  • Advanced Analytics merges with decades of global weather data to form the next generation of weather forecasting, DeepStorm

And the emcee of the event? None other than former Director of the National Hurricane Center, Bill Read. He is about as good as it gets for events like this and we all look forward to seeing and working with him once again.

But there’s more to it than just being in the audience. The setting provides a unique opportunity to those who attend to mingle with not only the speakers from the list above, but with other top-notch meteorologists who know hurricanes inside and out. Chris Hebert, who heads up StormGeo’s Tropics Watch will be discussing the future of the 2017 hurricane season. Got questions after the fact? Ask him. He, and the rest of us, will be around to chat it up with the group. It’s a rare chance to really get to know the people behind the stories whether it be someone from the National Weather Service, a legend like Neil Frank, or how about someone who has been in the strongest hurricane EVER? You’ve seen Josh on TV, now meet him in person – see if he is made of steel or is in fact a real, living person (ha ha). Seriously, seminars like this afford the attendees a rare chance to really get to know the presenters like few events can.

As for me? I will be presenting a history of the technology that we use to capture not only the close-up video of even the most dangerous of storm surge events but also the all-important wind and pressure data that helps to fill in holes during landfalls where data is so badly needed. Plus, I will talk about the exciting potential behind our HURRB weather balloon project and what our chances are to finally launch in the eye of a hurricane this season. I also look forward to just sitting back and listening to the other presentations, a chance to learn more than I knew before I walked in.

So, if you’re in the Houston area or can travel there for this event, I encourage you to do so. The city is amazing, I have spent a lot of time there doing R&D work on many of our newest projects. The venue is outstanding, we’re talking about a lazy river on the roof of the place that’s shaped like Texas itself! You gotta be there – even if it’s just for that 😉

How can you be a part of it? Check out StormGeo Hurricane Seminar

Use my special promo code: HurrSem17MARK and save 20% but you have to register before the end of June to take advantage of this discount.

If you can’t make it, no worries, follow #HurricaneSeminar and you’ll be able to keep up with what is going on via the awesome power of social media. Nothing beats live, so if you can attend, you won’t regret it and please, by all means come up and say hello, not just to me but to any of the folks who will make this seminar a memorable one, believe me, we love talking to YOU!

Any questions? Email me: ms@hurricanetrack.com or the seminar folks themselves: cst@stormgeo.com

Hope to see you in Houston next month!

M. Sudduth 11:20 AM ET June 27

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Hurricane Dora in east Pacific to be short-lived, no threat to Mexico

Hurricane Dora track map from the NHC

Hurricane Dora track map from the NHC

It took a littler longer than we’ve seen in recent years, but the east Pacific finally has its first hurricane of the season: Dora.

Top winds are 85 mph and it is forecast to strengthen more as it moves west-northwest off the coast of Mexico. Fortunately, the small size of the hurricane will mean that very little impact will be felt along the Pacific coast of Mexico.

The forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates a steady track to the west-northwest which will bring the hurricane over cooler waters, ultimately leading to its demise later this week. In fact, sea surface temperatures in the region are running below the long-term average by almost a full degree Celsius. This will equate to a quick weakening trend as the hurricane moves farther out in to the open Pacific.

In the Atlantic Basin, all is quiet for now. I will have a new video discussion posted later this afternoon which will address topics such as the weekly SST anomalies, current ENSO update and a look back at tropical storm Cindy and its impacts to the Gulf Coast and inland areas of the Southeast.

M. Sudduth 10:40 AM ET June 26

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Tropical Storm Cindy will make landfall tomorrow along the TX/LA border – biggest threat is rain and isolated tornadoes

Radar animation showing the strong bands of rain and storms moving in off the Gulf of Mexico towards the northern Gulf Coast

Radar animation showing the strong bands of rain and storms moving in off the Gulf of Mexico towards the northern Gulf Coast

Cindy has made a mess of things across a large swath of the Gulf Coast states with heavy rain, storm surge and even a few tornadoes being reported. It’s all part of the package when it comes to tropical systems, no matter how weak/strong they are.

In the overnight hours tonight, the main threat will continue to periods of very heavy rain and strong bands swing northward off the Gulf of Mexico and in to the northern Gulf Coast. You can see this on the radar animation that I have included with this update. Some of the cells could produce brief but strong tornadoes so please keep your NOAA Weather Radio handy or have a way to receive EAS alerts even while you’re asleep.

If you have travel plans across I-10 from FL to TX, please leave extra time in your schedule so as to be able to slow down during periods of heavy rain. Some of the bands can produce blinding rain, reducing visibility to near zero in an instant.

By tomorrow afternoon, the brunt of the storm will be inland over Louisiana and eastern Texas but the rain and severe weather threat will likely continue for a few more days as the remnant low pressure area moves across the eastern U.S.

I go over all of this in my latest video discussion which is posted below:

M. Sudduth 5pm ET June 21, 2017

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