It is September 10 and the peak day of the Atlantic hurricane season from a climatological perspective. We have a lot going on out there and the risk to people from Hawaii to the Lesser Antilles and eventually parts of the Southeast U.S. is increasing as Olivia, Isaac and Florence track closer to land. We also have to monitor a new system trying to develop in te NW Caribbean Sea which could impact the western Gulf region later in the week. I break it all down in my morning video post below.
I will post another update after the 5pm ET advisory package is released from the NHC.
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There is so much going on out there that it is mind-boggling. Not only do we have Florence to contend with, but now a new area to monitor coming out of the NW Caribbean Sea towards the Gulf of Mexico.
Of course, in the central Pacific, we’re tracking Olivia as it moves steadily closer to Hawaii.
Then, Isaac which is almost a hurricane; poised to bring hurricane conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles this coming week.
As for Florence, well, it has the makings of an epic disaster that could define a generation for portions of South and North Carolina, depending upon where the center crosses the coast, how strong it is and how much rain it dumps after landfall.
I go over the latest in this rather somber but honest discussion about what’s at hand.
Hurricane Florence will dominate the headlines this coming week, and for good reason, but we need to also keep an eye on two other systems that will impact land areas.
In the central Pacific, we are tracking hurricane Olivia which is forecast to drop southwest over time and bring rain and wind to portions of the Hawaiian Islands. I do not think there is much to worry about here except the heavy rain and locally rough surf. Olivia is slowly degenerating and should be on the down-turn as it passes the region.
We also are tracking TS Isaac which is forecast to impact the Lesser Antilles this week as a hurricane. It’s too soon to know which of the islands will receive the most wind, rain etc, but it’s looking more and more likely that hurricane conditions will be felt in some locations.
And of course we have Florence which is now a hurricane again. The official NHC forecast tracks Florence in to SE NC late next week and it is likely to be a strong hurricane when it does so.
The impacts will range from rough surf in the near term to full-on hurricane conditions by later in the week. Heavy rain, possibly made worse by a stall or slow movement, may result in major flooding; something we are unfortunately used to here in the Tarheel state. The coastal areas will receive the brunt of the winds and surge, all yet to be determined. If you have not done much to prepare ahead of time, now is your chance to do so. Time is running.
Here is my latest video discussion which covers all of these topics. I will post another update here near 6pm ET today.
The latest advisory info has been released from the NHC concerning not only Florence, but also Helene and Isaac – as well as for Olivia in the Pacific. I have produced a video discussion which goes over this new information, including a look at some of the latest model guidance and other factors that could ultimately shape the future of Florence. I will have another update Sunday morning.
The tropics are as busy as could be with storms and hurricanes scattered throughout the Pacific and extending in to the Atlantic. There is a lot to consider and many people will be affected by these various storms/hurricanes. I have prepared a thorough video discussion covering Olivia, Florence, Helene and newly formed TD 9. I will post another update to all of this information late tonight.
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