Not quite hurricane season but getting close

Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 for the Atlantic Basin and May 15 (as in tomorrow) for the east Pacific. We’ve already had one tropical depression form outside of the Pacific season and may add one in the Gulf of Mexico before the week is out.

I have posted a video discussion outlining all of this and more, including the latest look at the SOI and how that relates to my thoughts concerning El Nino for the season ahead.

M. Sudduth 10:10 AM ET May 14

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East Pacific hurricane season starting early…again

NHC outlines an area, invest 90-E, for possible additional development well to the southwest of the Baja peninsula.

NHC outlines an area, invest 90-E, for possible additional development well to the southwest of the Baja peninsula.

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins on May 15 but once again, like we saw last year, it seems that things will get started a littler sooner than expected.

The NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure well to the south and west of Cabo San Lucas along the Baja peninsula. It currently has a 70% chance of additional development and could become a tropical depression later today.

If it were to strengthen in to a tropical storm, with winds of at least 40 mph, it would take the first name on the 2018 Pacific list: Aletta.

Even if the system (technically designated as invest 90-E) does develop further, it will have zero impact to land but would be an interesting novelty – especially since we saw early season development in the eastern Pacific last year; on this same date ironically. That was TS Adrian and it was the earliest formation of a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific. Adrian formed much closer to land, just offshore of Central America but quickly dissipated.

The eastern Pacific is only marginally favorable right as sea surface temperatures are still warming since we’re only in early May. A favorable upward motion pattern (MJO) in the region, along with other local factors which enhance convection or thunderstorm activity, is likely causing this earlier-than-normal occurrence to take place.

It will be interesting to see what happens as this favorable pattern slowly migrates eastward in to the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico towards the end of the month. It would not be surprising to me if we saw a similar flare-up of convection farther east near Central America, either on the Pacific side or the western Caribbean side, in a week or so.

I’ll have more information concerning 90-E in a video discussion that I will post later this afternoon.

M. Sudduth

8:50 AM ET May 9

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Minor weather system in SW Atlantic

GOES-16 satellite image showing the weak disturbance situated off the Southeast coast. Click or tap image for full-size.

GOES-16 satellite image showing the weak disturbance situated off the Southeast coast. Click or tap image for full-size.

It’s early May and that means it’s almost hurricane season again. Most people who read this blog know this and keep up with things on a regular basis. It’s almost time and wouldn’t you know it, we have a little something to talk about before things officially get started in a few weeks.

A surface trough of low pressure, which is essentially a focusing point for air to come together and rise, creating showers and some thunderstorms, is interacting with cold air in the upper levels of the atmosphere – an upper level low. All of this has combined to produce an interesting but rather harmless storm system off the Southeast coast of the U.S. and extending down in to the Caribbean Sea.

Nothing about the current pattern favors additional pure tropical development but the feature is forecast by the global models to bring showers and maybe some heavier pockets of rain to extreme eastern North Carolina over the next day or so as a cold front sweeps in from the west, further adding moisture to the environment.

It will make for some gray skies, rain and maybe rougher than usual beach conditions but nothing more. Let it serve to remind us that hurricane season is near and yes, we do need to be aware and ready in case something of a more pressing nature comes our way. For now, this system is worthy of mentioning and so I have and thus, I wish you a great rest of your weekend!

M. Sudduth

2:15 pm ET May 5

 

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A legend retires: the story of the HurricaneTrack Chevy Tahoe

Here we see the Tahoe during hurricane Alex in 2004 along the NC Outer Banks.

Here we see the Tahoe during hurricane Alex in 2004 along the NC Outer Banks.

In February of 2003, thanks to a remarkable partnership that I had with Lowe’s Home Improvement, I purchased and placed in to operation a 2001 model year Chevrolet Tahoe. We’ve known it ever since as simply “the Tahoe”.

Over the course of the next 15 years, the Tahoe endured extreme weather conditions that exceed any test track or environmental conditions that General Motors could throw at it during development. We’re talking hurricane force winds, extremely low air pressure, salt spray, blistering rain, sand blasting and countless hours of grueling work – all the while keeping my team members and me safe.

The Tahoe performed like this for over 430,000 miles and not once did it break down while we were on a field mission or during any of our public awareness/education work.

Sure, over the years it needed to have various parts replaced and we did a great job of keeping it maintained – proving that if you follow the recommendations of keeping a vehicle up to date with regular maintenance, it will last. And ours did just that, it lasted, and lasted….

Hurricanes such as Isabel in 2003 and Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne of 2004 quickly “broke” the Tahoe in and showed us that we had made the right choice for our flagship “hurricane vehicle”.

By 2005 we developed our remote cam project. We packed the Tahoe to the ceiling with large yellow “Storm Cases” that would be set out to stream live video of historic hurricane Katrina in Gulfport, Mississippi. It was absolutely critical that the Tahoe kept going – no matter what. And it did.

The next ten years saw dramatic changes in technology, the rise of social media and a continuation of storms and hurricanes. Our Tahoe? It kept right up with it all – often being featured in television news stories, newspaper and magazine articles and online reports. Its legendary status grew and more and more people began asking, “Are you still driving that Tahoe?”

“Absolutely!” I answered.

In 2012 it was the Tahoe that captured the attention of a police captain in Belmar, New Jersey as hurricane Sandy bore down, about to change the lives of millions along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

He noticed the weather gear mounted on the roof, the various hurricane related decals on the side and approached me for some advice. After a few minutes, he knew that I could help the town of Belmar to better understand what they were up against as Sandy closed in.

I parked the Tahoe in front of the town hall and proceeded to provide guidance to the mayor, the town administrator and about 30 other officials and first-responders. I told them precisely what to expect. They listened and were as ready as they could be for the worst part of Sandy – the storm surge.

I used the Tahoe and my years of experience tracking hurricanes to landfall to give them up to the second situation updates from the water front – until it was time to retreat as the surge came in. They were able to save valuable time for their rescue teams to get rest, knowing that they had an expert, and his trusty vehicle, keeping watch.

They were so grateful for my assistance that they insisted that I meet the governor the next day on a battered, sand-covered Ocean Blvd in Belmar. Had it not been for the Tahoe, none of this would have been possible.

Last year, as Harvey dumped historic rain on southeast Texas, it was the trusty Tahoe that allowed me to set out unmanned camera equipment to stream live data and video before the floods became severe. This gave people time to react and make evacuation decisions for themselves or loved ones.

Only a week later, the Tahoe proved itself one more time with a long, multi-day mission to south Florida for hurricane Irma. It eclipsed the 430,000 mile mark during this journey; never showing signs of giving up.

There are so many other stories that go along with the science aspect of what the Tahoe has meant to me and those who have supported my work for all of these years. One day, it will be part of an epic book. For now, I have prepared a short look back at this remarkable vehicle.

Now it is time for a new Tahoe, for new stories and for new ways to change the world for the better because we have a safe, reliable vehicle to help us do so. What do you think, Chevy? Want to help us out?

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Five years after Sandy: Communicating hazards still a challenge

Hurricane Sandy in the hours before landfall along the New Jersey coast five years ago

Hurricane Sandy in the hours before landfall along the New Jersey coast five years ago

Five years ago today, I stood among hundreds of stunned New Jersey residents along the battered coast of Belmar. The wind was howling, the sky was gray and the Jersey Shore had been forever changed in the blink of an eye. All up and down Atlantic Ave, as far as the eye could see, there was destruction unlike anything most of us had ever seen. I might as well have been standing in Pensacola the day after Ivan in 2004 – the scene looked almost identical.

If you ask people today what happened five years ago – what caused it – you will get a couple of distinctly different answers: “Hurricane Sandy” or “Superstorm Sandy”; some just refer to the event as “Sandy”.

From a technical standpoint, it was post-tropical cyclone Sandy. I bet no one on the street has ever called it that, not in casual conversation as they reflect on the event that literally changed the policy of how watches and warnings are handled.

Even the subtitle of Scott Mazzella’s book, Surviving Sandy, says “Long Beach Island and the Greatest Storm of the Jersey Shore”.

Storm. Not hurricane. This is hugely important. Why? Because books written about Andrew in 1992, Camille in 1969 or Hugo in 1989 are not ambiguous; those were hurricanes. No question about it. So was Sandy – six hours before landfall.

Even in the days leading up to October 29-30, the media went crazy with the term “Superstorm” – all while Sandy was still very much a hurricane from a technical point of view. Do we blame the media? How about social media? While not nearly the vaunted force it is today, we still had plenty of people utilizing hashtags and other means of adding extraneous adjectives to what should have already been a dangerous enough term: hurricane. Why the word “super”? I think of Superman or Super Bowl – words that are exciting and mean big or better. Maybe that’s just me, but calling a hurricane a “Superstorm” was the beginning of a very bad idea in my opinion.

As Sandy took aim on New Jersey in terms of where the center would cross the coast, many people who lived farther north in New York had no idea of what was coming. People generally do not care about the weather, not like us weather geeks do. If they see that “a hurricane” is forecast to make landfall in Atlantic City, then that’s all they need to know – or so they think. They focus on “it” meaning the center or the eye and do not understand the entire picture of the hazards that are heading their way.

Now, five years later, we have storm surge specific watches and warnings. While it adds to the overall background noise of information, I think it is a great idea and will save lives (probably already has). Sandy was mostly a surge event although yes, the wind caused major damage. In terms of fatalities and the extensive damage at the coast, it was storm surge. People simply didn’t understand what storm surge was and why Sandy was going to deliver a lethal punch of it. Calling Sandy a hurricane the entire time would not have changed that in my opinion, if the center isn’t coming to their location, most people tune out the rest – especially in this day and age.

This must change.

The challenge of educating the public about the entire package of weapons that tropical storms and hurricanes bring is substantial. We have the greatest information sharing tool in history, the Internet, at our disposal – yet people still don’t get the big picture. We share video discussions, info-graphics, key messages, top 5 or 10 lists, etc. etc. etc. and people still say, “I had no idea it would be this bad”. How is this possible? I wish I knew, I really do.

As fate would have it, another powerful storm, in some ways similar to what happened with Sandy (similar but not the same), has blasted through New England with major damage in some areas. We had all the elements of a hurricane: hurricane force winds, storm surge and very heavy rain. Yet it was not a hurricane – no question about it this time. What was it? Was this current storm a “Superstorm”? If not, why? It walloped a huge population center and hundreds of thousands are without power because of it. It will be remembered for a long time I can assure you. Was it communicated properly by the NWS, media and via social media? Was anyone caught by surprise? I guess time will tell. I just found it mildly ironic that on this five year mark of Sandy’s place in history, another storm with the influence of a tropical cyclone (Philippe) has left us wondering once again about how to communicate the hazards of said storm.

The last line of Scott’s book goes like this:

“On the winds of catastrophe, Sandy delivered the same message to a new generation – rebuild, restore and come back stronger and wiser every time you do.”

We have certainly rebuilt and restored along the Jersey Shore and elsewhere after the hurricanes and Superstorms of the recent cycle of hurricane activity.

Are we stronger and wiser, however? That remains to be seen.

M. Sudduth

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