The westward shift and models has huge implications for southwest Florida

 12z  European model valid Sunday morning

12z European model valid Sunday morning

4:35 PM Eastern time Friday, September 8

Wanted to post a quick note before the main discussion and video that Zach will be posting early this evening.

The afternoon model runs are suggesting a larger and more significant threat of dangerous storm surge and overall hurricane conditions for Southwest Florida.

Notice this image from the European model valid Sunday at 8 AM Eastern time.

We need to watch this very closely as it could be quite too far greater impact for the West Coast of Florida and people need to prepare and evacuate accordingly.

Again, meteorologist Zack Fradella  Will have a detailed video discussion posted early this evening. I will post a discussion near midnight tonight.


Mark Sudduth



Irma, Jose and Katia all part of a very busy peak time of the hurricane season

Updated: 12:15 pm ET Friday Sept 8

It is close to the peak of the hurricane season and the warmer than normal SST profile for the Atlantic Basin is now showing what it can do. We have three powerful hurricanes, all of which will impact land in one way or another. We have not seen a season like this in quite some time – and we have a long way to go yet.

I am in Florida preparing to set out equipment for monitoring the impacts of Irma over the weekend. I plan to put live cameras and two weather stations (wind and air pressure sensors) throughout the southern part of the peninsula. Exactly where I set up the equipment remains to be seen but I have some ideas already.

To follow the live cams and weather data, you will need our iOS app developed for iPhone. It is called Hurricane Impact. It is available on the Apple App Store for $3.99 and the funding helps to support my job in this effort to bring you the best hurricane information and field updates possible.

We also have a subscription service available called HurricaneTrack Insider – see the ad for it on the right column. All of our content is posted there as well exclusively for our members – some have been with us for over 12 years.

I have produced an in-depth video discussion covering Irma, Jose and Katia. Please give it a watch as there is some important information about how to find out what to expect in your LOCAL area. The next update will posted here early this evening from our colleague in New Orleans, meteorologist Zack Fradella.

M. Sudduth



Irma slightly weaker, impacts to begin in Florida Saturday

This is an article written by Meteorologist Zack Fradella:

As of the 8 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Irma has weakened slightly now down to a strong Category 4 storm with winds of 150 mph. Movement continues west-northwest at 16 mph.

The track thinking remains the same with a landfall expected on Sunday morning at the southern tip of Florida near the middle to upper keys. Thereafter the storm will move due north up the spine of the state bringing major impacts to almost every city from Miami to Orlando/Tampa to Jacksonville. Those residents in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina will see less impact as long as the storm remains inland although residents in these states are being urged to prepare for a minimal hurricane.

Hurricane watches and warnings have been posted from South Florida up through the Peninsula and expect these to be expanded north throughout the day today.

For those trying to make final preparations, South Florida has all of Friday to do so while the rest of the state has until Saturday afternoon. Conditions will quickly deteriorate from south to north Saturday afternoon and especially Sunday when landfall is expected.


GFS vs ECMWF Video Post Added

Updated: 2:45 AM ET Sept 8

Just added a new video discussion comparing the latest runs of the GFS vs the ECMWF models. I am off to bed – meteorlogist Zack Fradella will handle the early morning video and blog post. I will be back in around 11am ET with an update and plans of the day of setting up equipment around S Florida, etc.

M. Sudduth



New video posted concerning Irma, Jose and Katia as tropics become super busy

12:15 AM ET Sept 8

I am in New Smyrna Beach preparing for the plan of attack to set out equipment in the path of powerful hurricane Irma. There is so much to address – sometimes video truly is the best method.

Note: I will post a shorter video around 2:30 am to compare the latest model output from the GFS and the ECMWF

M. Sudduth