5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook map from the NHC showing the high chance of development for invest area 93L. Click or tap for full size.
The NHC has upped the chances of development for 93L to 80% now. Upper level winds are just favorable enough for it to organize more and with the system over very warm Caribbean waters, it won’t take much for it to become a depression or storm later today.
A Hurricane Hunter crew is en route to investigate the system and we will know more by 5pm ET about what is happening and whether or not a depression or storm has in fact formed. Interests from the Caymans, to Cuba and the Florida Keys should be prepared for squally weather with heavy rain and gusty winds at times as the system passes by. Later tomorrow it looks as though what ever this becomes will cross through portions of the Bahamas on its way out in to the open Atlantic.
Also, part of the heat and moisture from the Caribbean connection to 93L will get pulled in to an approaching strong trough of low pressure – the one I mentioned in yesterday’s blog post – and is likely to bring a potent storm to parts of New England later this weekend.
I take a look at this and more in my latest video discussion posted below:
It is a darn good thing that 93L is just an area of interest and not a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane. Aside from the obvious reasons, let’s just say that if it were a hurricane, we would be talking about the potential for a massive storm to impact the East Coast this weekend. As it is, with what’s down in the Caribbean now, we’re talking about a fairly significant event taking shape.
The current situation
Invest areas 93L in the western Caribbean and 92E in the Southeast Pacific
Right now, invest area 93L is hugging the coast of Nicaragua and this is keeping it from developing further for the time being. It is also worth noting that there is another area of disturbed weather, east Pacific invest area 92E, that is close enough to the Caribbean system that I believe it is also keeping a lid on development since the two weather systems are competing for available latent heat energy within the same general area. In fact, the NHC indicates that 92E has the chance of becoming a tropical depression at some point over the next few days over the southeast Pacific, rather close to the coast of Central America.
As for 93L, over the next couple of days there is a small window of opportunity for it to become better organized and perhaps attain tropical depression status. In this case, don’t focus on the meteorological term – it won’t matter much – the impacts are coming and they have the potential of being substantial for a large swath of real estate from the Florida Keys up to Maine.
Tomorrow through the weekend
00z ECMWF snap shot showing the low pressure area developing quickly off the DE/NJ coast this coming Sunday (graphic courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com)
As the disturbance lifts northward tomorrow and in to Saturday, it will bring periods of heavy rain and squalls to Cuba, the Florida Keys and in to south Florida. It will be breezy too with winds gusting to 35 mph or higher in some exposed locations, especially in the Keys. Obviously, this will not be nearly as big a deal as a tropical storm or hurricane but in the wake of Irma, any disruptive weather is enough to rattle nerves and maybe knock out power to some areas weakened by the September hurricane.
The next phase of the event begins to take shape Sunday as a strong and deep trough of low pressure moves in to the East with a lot of upper level energy associated with it.
In the meantime, over the Atlantic, the tropical heat and energy associated with 93L will become part of the equation and make for a stormy period as Sunday progresses.
As it looks right now, the ECMWF model has the best handle on things and shows a potent area of low pressure moving up the East Coast, strengthening as it does so, especially off of Delaware and New Jersey. This low, combined with the approach of the strong upper level energy and trough, will likely result in more heavy rain for parts of the region, extending in to New England late in to the weekend and early Monday. How much, how long and exactly where remains to be seen but the set up is there for a lot of rain and wind – along with coastal impacts.
The biggest unknown right now is exactly how much of the heat energy of 93L gets pulled in to the upper level trough. The more it all phases together in to one intense low pressure area, then the higher the impacts will be. If the energy remains just offshore and ahead of the trough, we’ll see a significant storm but not the powerhouse event that could take place if the whole thing phases. It’s just impossible to know until it’s upon us really – so we’re going to have to wait and see – as usual.
The bottom line here is that a tropical disturbance, which itself has a lot of energy associated with even if it is not a named storm or a hurricane, has the potential of getting “mixed up” with a very strong trough of low pressure and its associated upper level energy to combine in to a powerful coastal storm this weekend.
We still have a day or so to watch as the model guidance flushes out and gives us more details of what to expect but for now, it looks like a moderate chance of a high-impact event taking shape this weekend. Stay tuned!
I’ve posted a video discussion on the situation below:
Newly designated “potential tropical cyclone two” and the 5-day track map. What does this mean? Watch the video discussion to learn more.
It looks as though invest area 92L will go on to become a tropical storm at some point. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it has become better organized as today has progressed and as a result, the NHC has begun issuing advisories on it….even though it is not yet a tropical depression or a storm.
This new initiative by the NHC was slated for starting this season though I am sure not many people thought it would be implemented so soon, especially for a tropical wave out in the tropical Atlantic. This is certainly highly unusual to say the least.
I have prepared a special video discussion covering this developing situation which you may view below. I’ll have more coverage here tomorrow, including the latest concerning 93L in the NW Caribbean Sea – which is also forecast to strengthen further and likely become a tropical storm.
NHC indicating a high chance of development in the red area, meaning impacts for Florida early this coming week
It looks like we are on our way to having another tropical system develop and it’s only June 5th. This time, we are looking at the southern Gulf of Mexico where a broad area of low pressure is taking shape, trying to organize enough to become a tropical depression or maybe even a tropical storm by later today.
The NHC indicates a 90% chance of this happening and the Hurricane Hunters will be flying out in to the system this afternoon for a close up look. At that point we’ll know for sure what is going on in the region just north of the Yucatan peninsula, extending in to the southern Gulf and northern Caribbean Sea.
Water temps in the area are plenty warm and it will not surprise me at all to see this get named – if so, it would be “Colin”.
Now, as I said yesterday, before folks in Florida get too nervous about all of this, let’s take a look at something very important: upper level winds. I think this is what keeps the system from becoming very strong. Looking at the latest 200mb wind forecast from the GFS computer model, we can clearly see very strong winds blowing across the top of the would-be storm at the 36 hour mark. This will likely keep the system from being very symmetrical in shape and with that, it should be rather lopsided with most of the wind and rain on the east side of the low pressure center.
GFS 200mb chart from the 6Z run showing the low pressure area at 36 hours. Notice the strong southerly to southwest winds blowing across the storm. This “shear” is not favorable for strengthening but could aid in severe weather for Florida (click to enlarge)
On the other hand, there will be substantial impacts for portions of the Florida peninsula. Exactly where and to what extent remains to be seen.
Winds to tropical storm force, maybe reaching 50 mph in some locations, could be expected but it’s tough to know where right now.
Very heavy rain coming from the warm Gulf of Mexico will move in as early as tomorrow afternoon. This is the biggest impact that I see for now and could cause localized flooding. It will be important to monitor your local NWS information and news sources as this will be a dynamic, constantly evolving part of the storm. In other words, it will come down to where the heavy rain bands or squall line(s) set up. Your area could get several inches of rain, along with strong gusty winds, or very little at all. We won’t know until the system is within radar range of NWS sites along the Florida west coast.
Coastal flooding will be a concern in typical onshore, surge prone areas of the west coast. I’ll know more about this once the NHC issues advisories and releases their storm surge and coastal flooding forecasts. I can highlight this better in my video discussion, especially tomorrow.
Severe weather as a whole could be a problem as well. With the very strong upper level wind pattern, it won’t take much to produce isolated tornadic thunderstorms along with possible strong down burst winds during the passage of the storm system. Again, there is no way to know where this might occur until we can see the storms on radar. The severe weather threat is high enough to warrant considerable concern, it’s just impossible to know precisely where and when.
Once the low moves across Florida on Tuesday, it will quickly move in to the Atlantic and could become stronger as it moves out to sea. The impacts along the Atlantic side won’t be as pronounced but even up the coast from Georgia to North Carolina could see heavy rain from the storm – it all depends on the angle of its track once it emerges in to the Atlantic.
I will post a video discussion shortly to follow up on the blog post for today. As new information comes in throughout the day, I will post updates on Twitter and our Facebook page – so be sure to follow along if you’re not already. We also have an app that consolidates all of our info in to one nice package. Search Hurricane Impact in the app store or Google Play.
Track forecasts from the various computer models showing the potential for a Fllorida landfall from what ever develops in the Gulf of Mexico early next week
The tropics continue to be busy during this young hurricane season with another system developing in the northwest Caribbean Sea this weekend. This time, it will track towards Florida and bring with it copious amounts of rain and the possibility of severe weather.
Overnight, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased quite substantially over portions of the northwest Caribbean Sea. The latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center gives an 80% chance of the system developing in to at least a tropical depression over the next few days. As it slowly organizes, the disturbance will bring heavy rain and occasional gusty winds to portions of the Yucatan peninsula this weekend. After that time, what should eventually become perhaps a tropical storm will move northward in to the Gulf of Mexico and then turn northeast towards Florida.
So far, the computer models only show modest strengthening due to strong upper level winds that will be present over the top of the system as it moves towards Florida. This should keep the wind from being too strong and I do not see any evidence right now to suggest a hurricane threat. On the other hand, I think we all know by now that one does not need a hurricane to have big problems, especially when considering the very heavy rain that is likely headed for Florida.
It is difficult to know this far in advance which areas will receive the heaviest rain. Right now, it looks as though south Florida will be spared the worst of the weather while points farther north, especially along the west coast, could be in for a rough start to the week. The possibility of severe weather exists too as strong upper level winds tearing across the tropical system will help to aid in severe thunderstorms which could bring their own locally intense down burst winds and the chance for tornadoes. This is something that people in the region will need to monitor closely over the next few days.
Once the system develops further, assuming that it does, we will know more about specific impacts to Florida. I think the bottom line is that we will be looking at a large, low-end tropical storm from a wind perspective, with plenty of heavy rain and possible severe weather. While not a hurricane threat, I cannot emphasize enough the importance of understanding all of the hazards associated with even “weak” tropical storms.
I will have another update on this system tomorrow morning.