The deep tropics remain fairly active, despite the strong El Nino in place in the Pacific. Fortunately for coastal dwellers, none of the systems that the NHC is monitoring pose any threat to land.
Up first is invest area 93L, the western most disturbance. As you can see in the satellite photo, it certainly has that look of becoming a tropical depression and may do so later today.
Computer models suggest a short window of opportunity for it to strengthen in to a tropical storm, if it does, it would be named Ida….unless…..
Unless 95L, the eastern most system develops first. It too has become better organized overnight but I think that 93L is well on its way to becoming a depression and eventually a storm.
Steering currents are such that both systems will almost certainly turn north with time and remain well away from land areas. In the end, we could finish the week with two additional named storms and a few more ACE points for the season but that’s it.
Looking ahead, the long range global models do not indicate any solid leads as to where the next area of interest may be. The natural evolution of the season would suggest that we begin watching the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico this time of year but upper level winds have not been favorable at all this season across that region. Water temperatures are slowly coming down from north to south as well and so the sands in the hourglass of the hurricane season will begin to run out quicker as we head towards October. It’s not over until it’s over, no doubt about that, but for the next several days at least, the United States and surrounding countries of the western Atlantic Basin are safe from the threat of hurricanes.
In the eastern Pacific, there are no areas of concern right now and I do not see that changing over the next five to seven days.
I’ll have more here tomorrow.
M. Sudduth 8:20 AM ET Sept 16