Remnants of TD 7 in the SW Gulf
Early morning satellite imagery shows that what was once TD 7 is coming back to life again in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The NHC is indicating a 70% chance of it becoming a tropical depression again before it moves inland this weekend.
Computer models suggest a WNW to NE track towards Mexico as a tropical storm or category one hurricane (SHIPs model shows it reaching hurricane intensity). The overall circulation is fairly small and will only affect a limited area of the southwest to western Gulf and I do not see much impact for Texas. However, it is possible that some of the northern rain bands will move in to south Texas over the weekend. The main threat will be very heavy rains for Mexico with the possibility of a strengthening tropical storm at landfall. The NHC has tasked a recon plane to investigate the area later today if conditions warrant.
Meanwhile, we have a new area of interest just off the African coast that certainly bears watching. It has been designated as invest 94L and should steadily develop as it moves westward over the deep tropics.
All of the global computer models indicate that it will develop and it is likely to become a hurricane at some point since conditions are becoming more favorable along its path. This will be one to watch very closely as we move through the week next week. For now, it is in its early stages of development and we’ll just monitor how it develops over the weekend.
In the east Pacific, Hector has dissipated and there are no other areas of concern brewing in that region. I’ll post another blog here later this afternoon or early evening and will cover all of the goings on in the tropics thoroughly in the video blog to be posted in our app early this afternoon.
All is quiet across the Atlantic Basin as we start the week. The tropical wave that flared up yesterday near Florida has all but vanished – at least in terms of deep convection. Conditions just do not favor development here or anywhere else across the Atlantic right now. As I posted last week, the Saharan Air Layer has been quite dominant in recent weeks, providing plenty of dry, dusty air and some incredible sunsets for south Florida. I do see signs of the SAL beginning to lose its grip and it won’t be too many more days until we have to begin watching the coast of Africa for signs of development from the westward moving tropical waves.
In the east Pacific, invest area 90-E is likely to become a tropical depression before too long but it will move generally westward and not pose any problems for land areas.
I know that folks in Florida will be glad to see Debby moving on off the coast and out in to the Atlantic. The storm dumped anywhere from 12 to 20+ inches of rain across portions of Florida. Freshwater flooding will be an ongoing concern as rivers fill with the run off and swell to flood stage and beyond. You can check the progress of the flooding situation by utilizing the fantastic resources of the Southeast River Forecast Center. Click here to access their site. It will give you specific river flooding info for your area and provide daily updates to that data.
Debby is certainly a lesson in understanding all of the effects of a tropical cyclone. I hope that people realize that we’re not just worried about the impacts from big, mean hurricanes. Even a moderate tropical storm, even a depression, can dump excessive amounts of rain on an area and cause significant flooding issues.
Once Debby leaves Florida behind, it will move out in to the Atlantic and likely regain some of its strength over the warm waters. However, it will move away from the Southeast and not be a problem any longer.
The remainder of the tropics are mostly quiet although there is a well developed tropical wave moving westward across the open tropical Atlantic. The NHC tagged it last night as “low probability for development”. This area is not usually favorable for development in June so the fact that we are seeing some potential is interesting. I’ll keep an eye on the system as it moves westward. It is likely going to bring some rain and squally weather to portions of the Lesser Antilles in a few days but should remain only a tropical wave and not develop much.
The east Pacific hurricane season has been quite busy so far with three named storms; one of them becoming a major hurricane.
It looks as though another tropical depression is forming not too far off the coast of Manzanillo. The good news here is two-fold. First, the system is only experiencing marginally favorable conditions to develop so it should not ramp up very quickly. Second, computer model guidance suggests that it will not track in to Mexico but rather turn back to the north and northwest over the next couple of days. While it could strengthen in to a tropical storm, none of the intensity models indicate a very strong system. Obviously, interests along the Pacific coast of Mexico will need to monitor this feature closely until it starts moving away.
Meanwhile, I am watching a large area of showers and thunderstorms that has developed over the southeast Gulf of Mexico and portions of the northern Caribbean Sea. The NHC mentions that there is a surface trough in the region which is simply a weak area of low pressure that acts like a focusing mechanism for unsettled weather. Upper level winds are not completely hostile but they’re not particularly favorable either. Water temps are plenty warm and this will lead to a continuation of the shower and thunderstorm activity that we currently have in place.
HPC Precip Forecast
Computer models indicate that the disturbance is likely to remain in the region and move slowly northwest throughout the remainder of the week. The result will be periods of stormy weather for the Florida peninsula. In fact, the precip forecast from the HPC shows the potential for several inches of rain to fall across south Florida (see graphic). Beyond that, I do not see much in the way of potential for the system to become a tropical storm although this scenario cannot be ruled out. As long as the disturbance remains disorganized and lacking of a well defined low level center, it will not do much more than be a large rain maker.
Elsewhere, invest 95L, over the cold waters of the North Atlantic, is a non-issue except for shipping interests. The storm system had some potential yesterday to develop in to a more tropical type storm but that window has since closed.
I’ll post another update here tomorrow with more info on the Pacific and Atlantic at that time.
Hurricane Carlotta made landfall last night along the southern Mexican coastline with winds to near 90 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The circulation is now weakening rapidly over the rugged terrain of Mexico but the threat of heavy rains will continue for the next few days. Remember that tropical cyclones release a tremendous amount of heat through rain fall and it takes time for the moisture envelope to totally spin down and dissipate. The mountains of Mexico will also serve as a focusing mechanism to wring out even more moisture and should help to hasten the process. Interests in the region should continue to be aware of the rain threat, especially along the higher elevations where mud slides and flash flooding could occur with little to no warning.
There is another area of interest in the east Pacific but it is farther away from the coast and will likely move in to cooler water before it can develop much.
Now we will turn our attention to the southern and western Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. The pattern is such that there is at leas some potential for a tropical depression to form later next week. Water temps are plenty warm and the current wet phase of the MJO, coupled with the remnants of Carlotta, could trigger a low pressure area to form in the Bay of Campeche. I do not see any indication in the global computer models that anything too strong will come of this but the region will certainly bear watching as we begin the week ahead.