NHC graphical tropical weather outlook map showing two areas to watch over the coming days
I’ll keep this fairly short and to the point as there really isn’t much to talk about right now.
Now that Hermine has come and gone things are quieting down for the time being. There are a couple of areas to monitor over the next few days but none seem ready to develop any time soon and certainly are of no concern for land areas.
The first feature is a broad area of low pressure that developed some fairly organized deep convection over night out to the east of the northern Leeward Islands. The NHC says in their morning outlook that any development should be slow to occur. I don’t see much in the computer models to suggest this system will do much but it’s there and is tracking over warm water at the peak of hurricane season so we’ll certainly keep an eye on it.
Next up is a large tropical wave and overall area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the far eastern Atlantic not too far off the coast of Africa. Here too, conditions seem only marginal for what ever reason and I expect development to be quite slow if at all. There just seems to be something missing from the Atlantic Basin again this season and it’s preventing the tropical waves from getting going like we saw from 2004 through 2008. Perhaps it’s a sign that things have changed back to a more normal or even inactive period of hurricane activity in the Atlantic. I just don’t know and we really won’t know unless this keeps going for a year or two more. For now, let’s enjoy the quiet spell since we know all to well what the alternative is.
M. Sudduth 8:40 AM ET Sept 8
Recent satellite photo of 94L off the west coast of Africa
The National Hurricane Center has recently identified an area of interest, a strong tropical wave with an associated low pressure center, not too far off the west coast of Africa. The tropical wave, labeled as 94L, is moving westward over warm water and actually has a slim chance at further development. However, the environment well ahead of this wave of low pressure is about as hostile as it gets. The combination of very strong upper level winds coupled with a generally stable atmosphere should clip the wings of this fledgling before it ever takes flight.
The global models are “seeing” this scenario as well and none are really doing much with 94L once it leaves the favorable environment that it is currently moving through.
It is interesting to note that after 94L seemingly dies off as it moves farther west that more strong tropical waves emerge from Africa in the coming days and also try to develop. I have to wonder – is the Atlantic just too hostile to allow any of them to flourish and become a tropical storm or hurricane? Or, is each one analogous to arrows being shot at a target: if you have enough, eventually one will hit. We are moving in to August very soon but it’s early August and even during a year without a strong El Nino, climatology tells us that eastern Atlantic development is rare until later in the month.
94L will be interesting to watch and will likely generate a lot of discussion within the hurricane blogosphere but from what I am seeing, that will be the extent of it. We never completely dismiss an area of interest and as such, I’ll be monitoring the future progress of this feature, even if it means watching from afar as it heads straight in to the sheer machine waiting to its west.
I’ll have more here tomorrow morning.
M. Sudduth 3:15 pm ET July 29
Tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic has potential to develop next week
It’s not much to look at now, but the NHC has mentioned a tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic that has some potential for development over the next few days.
Right now, the environment is not very suitable for anything to get going but that may change as indicated by some of the global computer models. A more favorable upward motion pattern, coupled with less dry air (perhaps) just might allow for a tropical low and eventually a depression to develop. It is close enough to August that this scenario seems plausible, especially considering the fact that TD2 formed within this general region just a few days ago. Even though that depression literally dried up, it is still a sign that this part of the deep tropics is becoming more and more favorable.
On the other hand, there has been an overwhelming amount of dry air across this region for a good part of the hurricane season to date. If this pattern does not ease up, it will be extremely difficult to believe that much will come out of the area south of 20N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. All it takes is a few weeks of less hostile conditions and the lid could come off but for now, I am skeptical of seeing much – we’ll see what happens in the coming days.
Elsewhere, the Atlantic Basin is quiet this weekend.
In the east Pacific, things remain very busy with several systems on the map this morning. However, none pose any threat to land areas and that looks to remain the case over the next several days at least.
I’ll have more here tomorrow.
M. Sudduth 11 AM ET July 26
TS Nadine is the 14th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
We are now up to 14 named storms for the season as the large tropical wave that emerged from Africa a few days ago is now TS Nadine. Top winds are 40 mph and it is expected to become a hurricane over the next few days.
There is no reason to worry about Nadine as it will likely never get past 50W longitude due to the abnormally weak subtropical ridge that has seemingly been in place for the past four years. This absence of deep layer ridging has kept a majority of the hurricanes that have formed far away from the U.S. and other land masses in the western Atlantic Basin. The only issue Nadine will pose is to shipping lanes. We might see an increase in swells along the East Coast and Bermuda if Nadine grows strong enough and large enough. We’ll just have to wait and see about that.
The rest of the Atlantic is nice and quiet and I see no threats to land over the next five to seven days.
Large Area of Disturbed Weather in the East Pacific off the Coast of Mexico
In the eastern Pacific, there is a large area of disturbed weather just off the coast of Mexico that has a good shot at becoming a tropical depression soon. It should move generally west-northwest and away from Mexico.
I will have more here tomorrow as we look in to the latter half of the season and what to look for in the weeks ahead.
Wow, things could not be much more quiet than they are now across the Atlantic Basin. I see no areas of significant convection that show any signs of development over the next few days. This certainly spells great news for coastal locations all over the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Now keep in mind that climatology suggests that it is towards the end of August and obviously through September that the tropics normally ramp up. We’ll see just how close to climatology we are as we move through the next few weeks. For now, enjoy the quiet.
In the east Pacific, the storms just keep coming off what seems like an assembly line. Right now, there is TS Hector which poses no threat to land and a new area of slowly organizing convection near the coast of Mexico that is destined to develop. This system (actually labeled as 95E) could run parallel to the Mexican coastline in the days ahead, bringing heavy rains and squally conditions to the region. We’ll have to watch it closely this week since it is already impacting land and could continue to do so. I’ll have more here tomorrow, including a look at the growing El Nino, SST anomalies and what the long range models are showing as we move in to the traditional heart of the hurricane season. I’ll also have an update on our iPhone app which has an update due out soon that will add new tracking maps and add some ease-of-use enhancements.