The fist 10 days of the official start to the season are usually quiet but we do need to watch the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the southwest Atlantic for signs of development as the month wears on. Tap or click for full-size image.
As you know, we have already had a named storm – Alberto – even though it was outside of the normal window that we call “hurricane season”. It was also classified as being subtropical in its structure but I think that will be changed in post-season analysis. Does the presence of Alberto mean the season will be busier or more problematic than usual? Not really. Although, I am intrigued at how well it maintained itself, and even became better structured, while over land. Perhaps this gives us a glimpse in to the future of how other systems will behave near or inland over the United States this season. Something to consider but overall, Alberto was a product of the pattern, not a symptom that something is amiss as we enter the official start to the season.
The list of names we are using this year are the same ones from 2012 except for Sara which replaced Sandy for obvious reasons. The next name on the list this season will be Beryl followed by Chris, Debby, Ernesto and so on. The general consensus is that we will use between 12 and 14 names this season; we’ve already used one, so we shall see.
This time of the season, we usually look to the Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean Sea or the southwest Atlantic for signs of development. The deep tropics, or what we call the Main Development Region, is almost never favorable in June due to higher pressures, lower SSTs and generally fast trade winds. It’s not until August that we typically watch the eastern Atlantic for development but you never know…there’s always a first time. For the most part, however, June is considered a slow month for Atlantic hurricane activity.
My plan this season is to continue to do what I have done for the better part of two decades: provide easy to understand, matter of fact updates about the tropics. If there’s nothing going on, then that’s what I will say. If I see something that worries me, I will say that too. In between, we will work on learning more together and I will use my 22 years experience to help you better understand not only what may or may not happen in the tropics, but also what to do about it should something head your way. We all have a role to play, it’s not up to the government to do it for us. I’ll help in what ever capacity that I can but will often refer you to other experts who know more than I do or who may have a different take on a certain aspect of what we’re dealing with. Preaching down to you as if I am beyond learning will never happen. When I stop learning, I will retire and write a nice long book. Until then, let’s get through the 2018 hurricane season together using the tools that we have and the collective trust that we have in each other.
Program note: this evening at 7:30 pm ET I will be live on my YouTube channel and hopefully on Facebook live as well to gather ’round the campfire, so to speak, and talk about the season. It will be like a gathering of friends, some old, some new, who have like-minded interests. In this case, it’s hurricanes and how we deal with them. I’ll have some tee shirts to give away plus a very special opportunity to own a piece of history. I will also take questions via email, Twitter, our own HurricaneTrack Insider chat, YouTube chat and (hopefully) Facebook comments. It should be fun which is what friends do when they get together. Hurricanes are tough, getting ahead of the curve shouldn’t be and it shouldn’t be all doom and gloom either. Weather is exciting and often beautiful – yet we know that tropical storms and hurricanes are dangerous, especially if not respected and understood. I think we can do a lot together and this evening we begin that journey. I call it “Day 1”. I’ll embed the YouTube feed here at 7:30 pm and will Tweet the link as well. Follow via YouTube and Facebook for instant notifications: search “hurricanetrack” and look for my logo.
8:35 AM ET June 1