East Pacific hurricane season will begin a little early this year

Latest model plot showing the likely track of invest area 90-E in the eastern Pacific

Latest model plot showing the likely track of invest area 90-E in the eastern Pacific

Officially, the east Pacific hurricane season gets going on May 15. That’s the date on a calendar – Mother Nature often strays from such notions and this year will be no exception.

The NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure, known as invest area 90-E (the “E” is for east Pacific) well off the coast of Central America and southeast Mexico. It is forecast to go on to develop in to a tropical depression and will likely become the east Pacific’s first named storm: Adrian.

Fortunately, the model guidance suggests a track that would keep much of the inclement weather offshore with only minimal impacts, if any, being felt on land. It’s something to keep an eye on for sure but nothing to be too concerned with just yet.

Let it also serve as a reminder that hurricane season is nearing – not only for the east Pacific, but also for the Atlantic Basin. That being said, it is Hurricane Preparedness Week and I encourage you to visit the updated section of the NHC’s site to learn what you can about tropical storms and hurricanes. There’s always something new, so even if you’re an avid weather geek who thinks they know a lot, might as well brush up your knowledge base and check out the latest from the NHC here.

I’ll have more on invest 90-E later this afternoon during my video discussion which will be posted to YouTube and here.

M. Sudduth 8:55 AM ET May 9

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Tropical depression in east Pacific poses flood threat, rest of tropics quiet

NHC Track Map of TD2-E

NHC Track Map of TD2-E

The second tropical cyclone of the east Pacific season formed yesterday just off the coast of southeast Mexico. It is rather poorly organized and not forecast to get very strong wind-wise. The main issue, as is the case with any tropical cyclone, will be heavy rain and the potential for fresh-water flooding related issues.

Forecasts from various computer guidance suggests that the depression/storm will move northward and make landfall over southeast Mexico sometime tomorrow. From that point, the low pressure area will weaken and could move in to the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico where it might have a chance to regain some strength. Water temperatures in the Gulf are not very warm compared to what it will be like in August, for example, but there is some potential here for this system to re-energize in the southern Gulf. None of the global models show much happening with this feature but I have to emphasize again the threat of heavy rain for the region.

Elsewhere, the Pacific and Atlantic are nice and quiet as we would expect for the early part of the hurricane season.

I will post an update tomorrow morning, including information on a brand new feature we are adding to our app, Hurricane Impact – for the 2014 season.

M. Sudduth 1:29 PM ET June 3

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Tropics not an issue this weekend

Two areas of interest in the east Pacific this weekend

Two areas of interest in the east Pacific this weekend

Other than a weak area of low pressure over southeast North Carolina today, the tropics are of little concern this weekend. The NHC did issue an outlook for the small low pressure area over the coastal waters of the Carolinas this morning but it is not going to do much more than bring some periods of rain and perhaps an increase in winds. Pressures are fairly high in the area and the low center is over land now and this will preclude any further development from taking place.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, all is quiet for now. None of the global models indicate any significant chances for development for at least the next week. Once we get in to July, a favorable MJO pulse may set off an active period but we’ll deal with that when and if it comes.

In the east Pacific, the NHC is keeping tabs on invest areas 94-E and 95-E. Both are situated well to the south and west of Mexico and pose no threat to land. All of the available computer model guidance suggests that at least one of these systems will go on to become a tropical storm early next week. Fortunately, there is no indication that either syustem will impact land directly though an increase in surf is possible along portions of the Mexican coastline – depending on how strong either one of the areas gets as they develop.

Enjoy the weekend, it will be a little wet and breezy for parts of the Carolinas but elsewhere, things look great for the first full weekend of summer. I’ll have more here tomorrow.

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Active pattern setting up as we round out June and enter July

Tropical weather outlook map showing two areas of interest in the east Pacific

Tropical weather outlook map showing two areas of interest in the east Pacific

The forecast for a busy season looks to be panning out so far as we have had two tropical storms already in the month of June, a rare thing to happen. Fortunately, no hurricanes have formed and thus the impacts have been tolerable.

The way things look now, it appears that we will be entering a period of active tropical weather as we end June and head in to July.

First up will be the east Pacific where two areas of disturbed weather are being monitored by the NHC. Both are far from land and both have a low chance of development right now. However, computer guidance suggests that a tropical cyclone of some magnitude will form well off the coast of Mexico within the next several days. The good news here is that steering patterns indicate a track towards the west and away from land. This system also looks rather large in the model fields and could mean an increase in the surf for areas along the Baja peninsula and other areas of Pacific Mexico.

Next, we will have to watch the western Caribbean once again for the possibility of tropical development later next week. The GFS, which is generally very good at detecting development in the medium to long range time span, has been consistently showing low pressure coming together north of Honduras in about a week. While this may seem to far out in to the future to take very seriously, consider the pattern we are in and that this region has been the hot-spot this season. I am going to be monitoring this area quite closely over the next several days to see if other reliable models jump on board with development.

Then, we have the MJO which I talked about in yesterday’s post. It has not reached its favorable phase for the Atlantic or east Pacific just yet. With things beginning to look more active as it is, I would tend to think that the addition of a favorable upward motion pattern, the wet phase of the MJO pulse, would really aid to get development going further as we get in to July. I believe there is a decent chance that July will be quite a bit more active than we’re used to seeing as of late.

I think it is remarkable that we have the tools to see in to the future enough to at least get a clue that something may be brewing in the not-to-distant future. I hope this information helps as it is not intended to be alarming but rather a good heads-up to be aware and know what may be coming down the road. Long range computer model guidance is getting better and better each year and recognizing certain patterns helps as well. Use this information to at least keep your attention on the tropics a little more than usual for this time of year. We have had a busy season already with Andrea and Barry. This looks to be the start of a very busy few months ahead, just as we were told by the many forecasts put out by NOAA, Colorado State and others who make it a point at trying to figure out the hurricane season in advance. We may get lucky and nothing happens of any significance but luck also favors the prepared.

I’ll have more on this developing pattern tomorrow.

M. Sudduth

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Nadine forms in central Atlantic; won’t be of any concern except to shipping lanes

TS Nadine is the 14th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

TS Nadine is the 14th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

We are now up to 14 named storms for the season as the large tropical wave that emerged from Africa a few days ago is now TS Nadine. Top winds are 40 mph and it is expected to become a hurricane over the next few days.

There is no reason to worry about Nadine as it will likely never get past 50W longitude due to the abnormally weak subtropical ridge that has seemingly been in place for the past four years. This absence of deep layer ridging has kept a majority of the hurricanes that have formed far away from the U.S. and other land masses in the western Atlantic Basin. The only issue Nadine will pose is to shipping lanes. We might see an increase in swells along the East Coast and Bermuda if Nadine grows strong enough and large enough. We’ll just have to wait and see about that.

The rest of the Atlantic is nice and quiet and I see no threats to land over the next five to seven days.

Large Area of Disturbed Weather in the East Pacific off the Coast of Mexico

Large Area of Disturbed Weather in the East Pacific off the Coast of Mexico

In the eastern Pacific, there is a large area of disturbed weather just off the coast of Mexico that has a good shot at becoming a tropical depression soon. It should move generally west-northwest and away from Mexico.

I will have more here tomorrow as we look in to the latter half of the season and what to look for in the weeks ahead.

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