TS Nadine is the 14th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
We are now up to 14 named storms for the season as the large tropical wave that emerged from Africa a few days ago is now TS Nadine. Top winds are 40 mph and it is expected to become a hurricane over the next few days.
There is no reason to worry about Nadine as it will likely never get past 50W longitude due to the abnormally weak subtropical ridge that has seemingly been in place for the past four years. This absence of deep layer ridging has kept a majority of the hurricanes that have formed far away from the U.S. and other land masses in the western Atlantic Basin. The only issue Nadine will pose is to shipping lanes. We might see an increase in swells along the East Coast and Bermuda if Nadine grows strong enough and large enough. We’ll just have to wait and see about that.
The rest of the Atlantic is nice and quiet and I see no threats to land over the next five to seven days.
Large Area of Disturbed Weather in the East Pacific off the Coast of Mexico
In the eastern Pacific, there is a large area of disturbed weather just off the coast of Mexico that has a good shot at becoming a tropical depression soon. It should move generally west-northwest and away from Mexico.
I will have more here tomorrow as we look in to the latter half of the season and what to look for in the weeks ahead.
All is quiet across the Atlantic Basin as we start the week. The tropical wave that flared up yesterday near Florida has all but vanished – at least in terms of deep convection. Conditions just do not favor development here or anywhere else across the Atlantic right now. As I posted last week, the Saharan Air Layer has been quite dominant in recent weeks, providing plenty of dry, dusty air and some incredible sunsets for south Florida. I do see signs of the SAL beginning to lose its grip and it won’t be too many more days until we have to begin watching the coast of Africa for signs of development from the westward moving tropical waves.
In the east Pacific, invest area 90-E is likely to become a tropical depression before too long but it will move generally westward and not pose any problems for land areas.
The Atlantic Basin is free and clear of any tropical activity this 4th of July holiday period. There are no areas of concern and none of the global computer models indicate any development over at least the next five days and probably more.
In the east Pacific, there is one area of concentrated convection well off the coast of Mexico. The NHC indicates that some slow development is possible as the system moves generally off to the WNW and farther away from land.
In other news, our iPhone/Android app is getting closer to its release. We are all very excited about it and I’ll be posting a series of blog entries detailing the various features of the app. The first will be posted tomorrow.
A non-tropical low pressure area, designated 95L, is the only area on the NHC’s tracking map worth noting this morning. It is located well out in the subtropical Atlantic, far from land areas. Even though it has gale force winds and some convective activity, it lacks a well organized warm core and is moving over progressively cooler sea surface temperatures. Even if it were to become a subtropical storm, it will continue to move to the northeast and not bother any land areas.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are, for the most part, nice and quiet. There is a notable increase in convection in the Caribbean which is partly due to the favorable MJO pulse moving through coupled with a tropical wave passing across the region. There is some chance for this energy to eventually develop in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week but I see nothing to suggest a major problem.
In the east Pacific, a large disturbance is moving eastward not far off the coast of Mexico. It has some potential for additional development before moving inland over Mexico later this week, bringing with it more heavy rains for the region.
TS Carlotta in the east Pacific
Tropical storm Carlotta is not in any hurry.The fairly slow moving storm continues to edge closer to becoming a hurricane and should do so later today. The NHC forecasts Carlotta to peak at 90 mph – a solid category one hurricane.
For now, the deep convection or thunderstorm activity remains mostly off shore, keeping the wind and precip with it. This could change later today as the forecast track takes the system closer and closer to the coast but without making landfall. This scenario would likely keep the core of the strongest winds off shore but heavy rains and winds to tropical storm force are a good bet for portions of the southern region of Pacific Mexico.
The big concern that I have is the fact that Carlotta is not forecast to move very much after the weekend. Its close proximity to the coast would likely mean a heavy rain event for the region. Interests in the area should be prepared for the possibility of several inches of rain over the next few days which could easily result in flash flooding and mudslides.
Atlantic Basin Quiet
The Atlantic Basin remains nice and quiet with no organized areas of convection noted on satellite imagery. I do not see any evidence that this pattern will change anytime soon although the western Gulf of Mexico could be the place to watch in about a week. Both the GFS and ECMWF models indicate the lowering of pressures across that region as a Monsoon Trough remains in place from the east Pacific, extending eastward in to the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. This focusing mechanism for convection often leads to development though it usually takes several days, similar to what we see in the west Pacific with large areas of low pressure spread out over a wide area. For now, the weekend ahead looks fantastic with no trouble spots at all in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf.