Remnants of Bill still alive and well, tropics as a whole quiet for now

Tropical depression Bill as seen via visible satellite photo on June 20, 2015

Tropical depression Bill as seen via visible satellite photo on June 20, 2015

Tropical storm Bill made landfall early Tuesday morning along the central Texas coast and has since left a tremendous amount of rain in its wake. Fortunately, the flooding situation in Texas was not as severe as it could have been but in parts of Oklahoma, it’s a different story.

Bill once again underscores the importance of the public having a grasp on the total package, so to speak, that tropical cyclones bring. It’s not just categories of hurricanes or the amount of storm surge, rain and the resulting freshwater flooding has a way of sneaking in and seemingly catching people off guard.

Today, the remnant low pressure area of Bill is currently moving through parts of Arkansas and Missouri. Heavy rain is falling in areas such as St. Louis and will spread up the I-70 corridor in to Indiana over the weekend. The satellite presentation is still rather impressive for a depression that has been over land for several days. The low is forecast to track through Kentucky and eventually off the Mid-Atlantic states within the next few days, spreading more heavy rain along its path.

As for the tropics going in to the weekend – nothing to worry about at all. We are currently within a period of time that is not likely to allow for much development in either the east Pacific or the Atlantic. This should last for about 10 to 15 days, maybe more, we’ll see. In addition, dry, dusty air from Africa is traversing the Atlantic right now, keeping a literal lid on any development chances out that way. So enjoy the weekend along the shores, tropical storms and hurricanes won’t be an issue anywhere. I’ll have more here on Monday.

M. Sudduth 1pm ET June 20

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Texas deluge as tropical moisture aimed at Lone Star State

NHC graphical outlook and the potential track area of invest 91L

NHC graphical outlook and the potential track area of invest 91L

A lot has been made already about the presence of invest area 91L. After all, it is hurricane season and we do have an area of interest to monitor in a region that hasn’t had much activity over the past few years. In fact, a grand total of zero hurricanes have made landfall in Texas since 2008 – Ike was the last. While there is nothing at all to suggest that 91L will become a hurricane, it does raise a few eyebrows and for good reason: the rain threat.

May was an absolutely stunning month for rain in parts of Texas. Houston alone set records and had flooding issues. Farther inland, areas such as Austin, San Antonio and Wimberley experienced flooding which resulted in loss of life and significant damage. The power of water is often unappreciated until it changes lives and alters the landscape.

Enter 91L in to the picture and the NHC’s potential track area as seen in the graphic and you can see why Texans are probably a little more concerned about this system than they might be otherwise. None of the intensity guidance suggests anything more than a lopsided, weak tropical storm. Nothing to worry about, right? Wrong. Tropical cyclones, this includes tropical depressions and tropical storms mind you, have four main hazards that they can hit you with: wind, storm surge, rain and tornadoes (downburst winds too). The majority of the public responds well when the forecast suggests 150 mph winds are coming. Sadly, storm surge, as lethal as it is, seems to be ignored (see Katrina, Ike and Sandy).

That leaves us with rain, the most abundant of the tropical cyclone hazards and yet it is the most ignored and least understood by the average person. We think of rain as cleansing and necessary to sustain life. However, too much of it at once or even over several days has a drastic effect on life as we know it.

Only a few inches of rain in a short period of time can overwhelm flood control systems in large metro areas such as Houston. If the rain keeps coming, everything literally cascades in to a total disaster, often stranding hundreds of people who didn’t seem to know better. Even after years of “turn around, don’t drown” people will think they are immune to the laws of physics and do something that defies logic. All because they didn’t respect the power of rain and freshwater flooding.

What does all of this have to do with 91L? Plenty. I think this is an opportunity for people in the region, mainly Texas, to show that they have learned from past experiences. Allison in 2001 was quite a while ago, I’ll give them that. But the May floods were, well, in May – just a few short weeks ago.

There is the potential for what ever becomes of 91L, whether or not it attains tropical storm intensity, to drop a lot of rain over areas that simply don’t need it – at least not in the quantities that some forecasts are showing.

The good news is that upper level winds should keep 91L from becoming much more than a rain threat. This will minimize the amount of wind and surge impact to the coast. However, any onshore flow in areas such as Bolivar Peninsula could lead to over wash – that area is flat with little to no dune protection.

The bad news is that the Gulf of Mexico is ripe with moisture. Water temps are running above normal with actual temps close to the upper 80s along parts of the northwest Gulf. This will lead to an incredible amount of precipitable water being lifted in to the atmosphere and wrung out over Texas next week. Flooding is almost a certainty but exactly where is impossible to pinpoint.

It is going to be important for people in the region to monitor their local news outlets and reliable social media sources for updates. This is going to be a constantly changing situation and a lot will come down to how much rain falls over a certain area and for how long. Since that cannot be forecast with any real accuracy this far out, keeping up with the latest from the National Weather Service and your local TV meteorologists will be important in keeping you and your family safe.

I highly recommend using weather.gov and then inputting your ZIP Code. The return page will have a ton of useful links and information, including the latest watch/warning package and any special statements. It’s all right there at your fingertips – use it!

TS Carlos tracking map from the National Hurricane Center

TS Carlos tracking map from the National Hurricane Center

Meanwhile, Carlos is a tropical storm now just off the coast of Mexico in the eastern Pacific. The forecast takes the storm inland between Tuesday and Wednesday while strengthening it again to hurricane strength. Again, as with 91L in the Gulf of Mexico, the biggest issue with Carlos will be the potential for flooding rain. Certainly hurricane force winds are an issue but with a slow moving tropical system the rain is probably the larger concern at this point. Fortunately, the proximity of Carlos to land should keep it from intensifying much more than it is now, fluctuating back and forth between tropical storm and hurricane strength. Once inland in a few days, its moisture will spread over the interior portions of Mexico further extending the rain and flooding threat to that region.

I will have continuing coverage of 91L and Carlos tomorrow and via my video blog discussions now available through our YouTube channel. Follow and subscribe to the channel here: HurricaneTrack YouTube channel

M. Sudduth 12:15 PM ET June 14

 

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Karen a remnant low, still bringing some heavy rain to Gulf Coast

Recent radar image showing rain bands coming onshore as the remnants of Karen pass by

Recent radar image showing rain bands coming onshore as the remnants of Karen pass by

Karen never made it to land. The October storm that had potential to become a hurricane succumbed to relentless strong upper level winds and dry air. This constant battering finally overwhelmed the storm and it is now just a remnant low pressure area over the Gulf.

The moisture that remains will stream northward today and impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast where flood watches are posted for some areas. Rain could be heavy at times and there is the possibility for isolated tornadoes so keep your NOAA Weather Radio handy just in case.

Once the cold front sweeps through, the weather will return to more fall-like and bring a nice pattern back to the region.

Looking ahead – there is a chance we’ll see another tropical storm form out in the open Atlantic this coming week. I’ll have more on that plus the chance of a hybrid storm developing off the Carolinas later in the week as well. October can be a very active month as the clash of the seasons mixes tropical activity with winter-like storms – just as we saw lately with Karen and the incredible blizzard for parts of the upper Midwest.

I’ll have more here tomorrow morning.

M. Sudduth 10:20 AM ET Oct 6

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Debby exiting Florida but leaving behind a lot of water

I know that folks in Florida will be glad to see Debby moving on off the coast and out in to the Atlantic. The storm dumped anywhere from 12 to 20+ inches of rain across portions of Florida. Freshwater flooding will be an ongoing concern as rivers fill with the run off and swell to flood stage and beyond. You can check the progress of the flooding situation by utilizing the fantastic resources of the Southeast River Forecast Center. Click here to access their site. It will give you specific river flooding info for your area and provide daily updates to that data.

Debby is certainly a lesson in understanding all of the effects of a tropical cyclone. I hope that people realize that we’re not just worried about the impacts from big, mean hurricanes. Even a moderate tropical storm, even a depression, can dump excessive amounts of rain on an area and cause significant flooding issues.

Once Debby leaves Florida behind, it will move out in to the Atlantic and likely regain some of its strength over the warm waters. However, it will move away from the Southeast and not be a problem any longer.

The remainder of the tropics are mostly quiet although there is a well developed tropical wave moving westward across the open tropical Atlantic. The NHC tagged it last night as “low probability for development”. This area is not usually favorable for development in June so the fact that we are seeing some potential is interesting. I’ll keep an eye on the system as it moves westward. It is likely going to bring some rain and squally weather to portions of the Lesser Antilles in a few days but should remain only a tropical wave and not develop much.

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