Tag Archive for Florida

Weak low pressure moving across Florida worth watching, Edouard stays well out to sea

Invest area 92L moving over southern Florida this afternoon

Invest area 92L moving over southern Florida this afternoon

A weak low pressure area, easy to spot on visible satellite imagery, is crossing south Florida this afternoon. Strong upper level winds have kept it from becoming any better organized by pushing the deep convection away from the low level center.

The low has brought periods of heavy rain to portions of south Florida but so far, nothing widespread has occurred and it looks to remain that way.

Forecasts from various computer models indicate the low will move westward and in to the Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Normally this would be cause for concern since Gulf water temps are in the mid to upper 80s. However, the strong upper level wind pattern is not likely to abate anytime soon. This should keep the low from strengthening too much as it gets pushed across the Gulf towards Texas.

It is obviously worth watching since we’re in the peak of the hurricane season and water temps are so warm. However, without any significant strengthening indicated by the models, I am not too concerned just yet. The low could bring heavy rain to any land areas that it eventually interacts with but beyond that, I see little to be concerned with.

Meanwhile, TS Edouard formed yesterday in the open Atlantic well to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The NHC is forecasting Edouard to turn out in to the Atlantic with a path that takes it northward between 55 and 60 degrees west longitude. This will keep it away from Bermuda. Edouard is forecast to become the season’s fourth hurricane which will help to add to the ACE score which is a numeric method of measuring how active a hurricane season has been. Right now the ACE score is around 20, well below the long term normal of about 100 or so. Edouard should add a few points to the total but it looks like we are going to end up well below the average unless a particularly intense hurricane forms before the end of November.

In the east Pacific, TS Odile continues to move to the west-northwest. It is expected to turn more northwest with time, parallel to the Baja peninsula but well offshore. Higher surf will be felt once again up and down a good deal of the Pacific coast from the Baja up in to southern California – especially once Odile becomes a hurricane. In fact, it is forecast to become a strong hurricane peaking out at 105 mph.

The rest of the east Pacific remains active with disturbances and another depression but none of them pose any threat to land at the moment.

I’ll keep an eye on the low over Florida and will post any updates to Twitter with a full blog post here tomorrow.

M. Sudduth 1:34 PM ET Sept 12

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Critical week ahead for parts of the Southeast

Computer guidance has shifted west over night, resulting in a track that poses a threat to the Carolinas later this week

Computer guidance has shifted west over night, resulting in a track that poses a threat to the Carolinas later this week

This week is probably one of the worst weeks out of the entire year that a potential hurricane could threaten the United States. It’s coming up on Independence Day and a huge monkey wrench is likely to be thrown in to the plans of thousands who are wanting to relax at the beach. While nothing is etched in stone, far from it, the chances seem to be going up that something rather unpleasant is in the making as we move through this all-important week.

The issue is, of course, 91L and what will very likely become TS Arthur. The NHC continues to indicate a high chance of development over the next few days.

As of early this morning, the area of low pressure was situated to the east of Florida, about the same latitude as Melbourne and vicinity. So far, organized deep convection remains limited. It appears that northerly winds are continuing to blow over the circulation, injecting some dry air while keeping a lid on tropical thunderstorm formation. However, all indications are that this pattern will change and we will have a tropical depression before too long.

At this point, the forecast guidance is in pretty good agreement that a tropical storm will form and move northward, actually somewhat west of north for a time. Then, the crucial turn to the northeast will commence ahead of an approaching trough swinging down from the upper Midwest. This acts like a soccer player kicking the ball (Arthur to be) out to sea. Well, it’s more complicated than that, but in keeping with current sports news, I thought the soccer analogy worked. The idea is that the supposed-storm would be pushed out to sea at some point – when this happens is very important.

The overnight runs of most of the models indicate that there is a good chance that the system could move over parts of extreme eastern North Carolina. To be fair, there is also a good chance the center remains just offshore. However, we should all know by now that the center is not the only area to watch – effects can reach out 50 to 100 miles or more from the center. We’re talking rip currents, bands of heavy rain, increasing winds and seas and the possibility of tropical storm or even hurricane winds affecting some part of the North Carolina coast. I do not say this without backing it up. The SHIPS intensity model, often cited in NHC advisories, brings the system to hurricane strength – so this needs to be considered. Add to the complication the fact that intensity forecasting is where the least amount of skill lies. Do not gamble on this being a weak, sheared storm with little to worry about. There is enough room for error that I would not be at all surprised to see this system become a hurricane.

For now, we have a slowly developing tropical cyclone just off the Florida coastline. That region will be the first to feel impacts. Higher surf, rain bands and an increase in wind will likely put a damper on vacationers along the east coast of the Sunshine state for a day or two. After that, we need to wait and see what develops and take it from there.

People along the Southeast coast are generally hurricane savvy. The one thing that concerns me is the crowds of people coming in to the region from some inland state and thus having zero hurricane experience. While I may be jumping too far ahead, this is something to consider since we are coming up on a massive beach holiday. This is not going to be “fun” or “exciting”, not in a good way. If what could be the season’s first storm and/or hurricane comes close enough to the coast, people need to be ready or the results could be very rough to deal with.

I will post another update on this developing situation later in the afternoon. I’ll also have the daily video blog posted to our app, Hurricane Impact, by 4pm ET. Follow along with the app which is available for iOS devices and Android. Simply search Hurricane Impact and stay connected where ever you are.

M. Sudduth 8 AM ET June 30

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First named storm of the season possible off the Southeast coast

Invest area 91L off the Southeast with limited track model data showing quite a range of possibilities over the coming days

Invest area 91L off the Southeast with limited track model data showing quite a range of possibilities over the coming days

The NHC has made mention of the possibility of development off the Southeast coast later this weekend for a few days now. A low pressure area, non-tropical in origin, moved across the landmass of the Southeast and has now emerged over the very warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

It is a small area of weak low pressure now with disorganized convection, as seen in recent satellite imagery. However, the potential is there for this to become a tropical depression and eventually a tropical storm. If it becomes a storm, the name will be Arthur.

The steering pattern is interesting as it looks like, for now, the low will move southward as high pressure in the middle layer of the atmosphere keeps the system blocked from moving north or northeast. There is a chance that the low will even turn to the southwest and may make it to the Georgia or Florida coast early next week.

Sea surface temps are very warm off the Southeast coast

Sea surface temps are very warm off the Southeast coast

Water temps are very warm across the western Atlantic, right up to the coast. There is plenty of fuel for development but upper level winds are not ideal right now. My concern is that this is a small feature and computer models typically do not handle small systems very well. It is possible that this quickly develops, taking advantage of the window of opportunity even though, generally speaking, conditions across the Atlantic Basin are hostile and have been that way since the beginning of the season.

It is important for boating interests all along the Southeast coast to keep an eye on this developing weather situation. At the very least, locally rough seas, due to showers and thunderstorms, can be expected. It is not out of the question that a tropical storm forms which can complicate matters significantly.

The NHC has tasked a series of recon flights in to the area beginning on Monday. We’ll know a lot more then when their data is available. It will be interesting to see how quickly, if at all, this system develops and then what path it takes. With a busy 4th of July week ahead, the last thing we need is a tropical cyclone near the coast of the Southeast U.S.

I will post another update early this evening and an in-depth look at the system in my daily video blog which is posted to our iOS and Android app, Hurricane Impact. Don’t have it? Search Hurricane Impact in the App Store and on Google Play.

M. Sudduth 9:47 AM ET June 28

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Tiny area of low pressure off FL east coast won’t amount to anything

Weak area of low pressure just off the FL coast

Weak area of low pressure just off the FL coast

The NHC has outlined an area of interest just off the east coast of Florida, roughly 70 miles from Daytona Beach. It is a very small area of low pressure that has virtually no chance of developing. Strong upper level winds will not allow for deep thunderstorms to form and remain persistent enough to lower pressures and allow the chain reaction of a tropical cyclone to begin.

The low is expected to move northward and then be pushed out in to the open Atlantic by an approaching upper level trough. This acts like a bulldozer and will turn the low northeast and away from the Southeast coast.

Other than that, there are a few tropical waves scattered across the Atlantic Basin but none show any signs of further development. The global models are also quiet with no development seen in the short or long term. It looks like another quiet weekend in the tropics – and this includes the east Pacific as well.

I’ll have more here on Monday unless conditions warrant another post over the weekend.

M. Sudduth 1:24 PM ET June 20

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Karen a remnant low, still bringing some heavy rain to Gulf Coast

Recent radar image showing rain bands coming onshore as the remnants of Karen pass by

Recent radar image showing rain bands coming onshore as the remnants of Karen pass by

Karen never made it to land. The October storm that had potential to become a hurricane succumbed to relentless strong upper level winds and dry air. This constant battering finally overwhelmed the storm and it is now just a remnant low pressure area over the Gulf.

The moisture that remains will stream northward today and impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast where flood watches are posted for some areas. Rain could be heavy at times and there is the possibility for isolated tornadoes so keep your NOAA Weather Radio handy just in case.

Once the cold front sweeps through, the weather will return to more fall-like and bring a nice pattern back to the region.

Looking ahead – there is a chance we’ll see another tropical storm form out in the open Atlantic this coming week. I’ll have more on that plus the chance of a hybrid storm developing off the Carolinas later in the week as well. October can be a very active month as the clash of the seasons mixes tropical activity with winter-like storms – just as we saw lately with Karen and the incredible blizzard for parts of the upper Midwest.

I’ll have more here tomorrow morning.

M. Sudduth 10:20 AM ET Oct 6

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