Here we are at the end of September and not one hurricane has formed in the Atlantic – not this month anyway. The only two hurricanes were Danny and Fred and those were in late August. I do not see much potential for hurricane formation over the coming days but there is plenty to talk about in terms of other action in the tropics.
First up, we have invest area 99L in the Gulf of Mexico. The latest info from the NHC suggests that it won’t develop in to a tropical storm before reaching the coast tomorrow or Wednesday. Upper level winds are just too strong and continue to blow across the top of the system, not allowing deep convection to develop. However, there is ample tropical moisture associated with this system and very heavy rain is possible for a large swath of the eastern Gulf Coast states and areas inland from there.
The coasts of Mississippi and Alabama received excessive rain over the weekend with flooding issues becoming a big problem in some locations. More rain is on the way but it looks like the heaviest totals will be shifting further to the east towards Florida as the moisture plume moves northward out of the Gulf.
Meanwhile, we now have TD #11 which formed yesterday over the warm waters of the southwest Atlantic. The official forecast calls for no significant additional strengthening but it would not take much for this system to become a tropical storm. It should not impact land directly but the track is aimed towards the East Coast of the U.S. and this could have an influence on the weather this weekend. More on that in a moment.
Next there is the ghost of Ida. Although no mention was made on the NHC’s latest outlook, I think there is a fair chance that Ida makes a comeback as it continues to move off to the west with time. Again, water temps are plenty warm and the MJO (favorable upward motion) is turning more positive for development for the Atlantic Basin. This should allow Ida to grow and possibly become a tropical storm again later this week. It won’t affect land, not yet anyway but needs to be watched since the pattern is such that a lot of energy from the tropics is being aimed at the East Coast of the U.S. This brings me to the weekend….
Some of the model guidance is suggesting that a combination of energy coming in from the Gulf, meeting up with energy from TD11 could produce a coastal storm that would affect areas from the North Carolina Outer Banks to points north towards Cape Cod. It has been interesting to watch each run of the various models over past few days as some will show quite a bit of wind and rain while others do not or are not as pronounced with the effects. What does look like a certainty is that a lot of rain is headed for areas of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and eventually parts of New England as the week wears on. How strong any one system is remains to be seen. Will we have a singular intense coastal storm or a large, spread out mess? It’s tough to call right now but there is an awful lot of heat energy available from the tropics right now during a time of year when the atmosphere is changing from summer to fall. Stay tuned, looks like a wild week ahead!
In the Pacific, tropical storm Marty is lurking off the coast of Mexico with 70 mph winds. The forecast track bends Marty sharply west before reaching land but as always, heavy rain is a possibility as outer bands from the storm circulate inland over the next couple of days.
I will have a full video discussion posted later this afternoon covering all of the goings on in the tropics.
M. Sudduth 9:20 AM ET Sept 28