Tropical Atlantic showing signs of life with 93L

5-day graphical tropical weather outlook map from the National Hurricane Center showing 93L over the tropical Atlantic

5-day graphical tropical weather outlook map from the National Hurricane Center showing 93L over the tropical Atlantic

There has been a lot of talk in recent weeks about how hostile the environment is in the tropical Atlantic when it comes to hurricane development.

Dry air, cooler than average sea surface temps, African dust – it’s all part of the so-called “anti-hurricane season” going on in the deep tropics. So far, the negative conditions has meant there has been absolutely nothing to talk about between Africa and the Caribbean Sea; that is, until now.

It seems that conditions have become a little less hostile in recent days with a let up in what is known as the Saharan Air Layer or SAL. Also, water temps have warmed some in the region compared to where they’ve been over the past month or so. Add to this mix a vigorous tropical wave that exited Africa a few days ago and we have an area of interest: 93L.

The National Hurricane Center indicates that the disturbance has a small window of opportunity for some development over the next day or so as it moves across the deep tropics. However, it is still a bit early for development this far east and eventually, upper level winds are likely to put a lid on strengthening for 93L.

It is interesting to me that we are seeing this happening simply because the deep tropics are supposed to be very unfavorable this hurricane season. While I won’t make too much out of this system’s presence, I do take note of it and will be watching the region a little closer in the coming weeks. Perhaps conditions won’t be quite as negative out that way as some were thinking, time will tell.

For now, it is just something to watch as it travels westward over open water. There are no indications at this time that it will develop much further but even if it does, it is still far out over the Atlantic and would not be an issue for any land areas for several days at least.

Track map showing hurricane Dolores over the eastern Pacific

Track map showing hurricane Dolores over the eastern Pacific

Meanwhile, in the east Pacific, what was once powerful hurricane Dolores is weakening well to the southwest of the Baja. The forecast track takes it northwest to a position that could send fairly significant moisture towards the Southwest U.S. in the coming days. This might help to enhance the rain chances across southern California, Arizona and Nevada. How much so remains to be seen but it’s something to keep an eye on for both beneficial reasons and the potential for flooding.

It’s also worth noting that high surf could be an issue for south facing beaches in southern California as swells generated by the hurricane reach the coastline this weekend. Surfers will obviously love this scenario but need to be careful out there as the sets roll in.

I will have more here over the weekend concerning 93L and Dolores.

M. Sudduth 6:45 AM July 17

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