River flooding continues in NC, Nicole likely to pass close to Bermuda and western Caribbean becomes area of interest soon

We are getting close to mid-October and the tropics are still very much a major topic of conversation. The aftermath of Matthew from Haiti and Cuba through the Bahamas and in to the Southeast U.S. is the top story outside of the political craziness that has dominated the news cycles for most of the year.

Right now, the clean up process has begun and unfortunately, so have the plans for saying goodbye to those killed in the hurricane. Last I heard from news sources, at least 23 people have died in the United States with hundreds more lives lost in Haiti. This saddens me but it also underscores the need for better hurricane preparedness across the Western Hemisphere. We have so much technology, so much information, yet we still lose people in ways that should not ever happen. I will re-visit this grim topic at a later date and offer some suggestions for doing better in the future.

Hydrograph for Kinstron, NC along the Neuse River showing the slow rise of the river to near record flood stage by Friday.

Hydrograph for Kinstron, NC along the Neuse River showing the slow rise of the river to near record flood stage by Friday.

In eastern North Carolina, the river flood situation continues. Parts of I-40 and I-95 remain closed as flood waters are slow to recede. In places such as Kinston, along highway 70, the flood has only just begun and will not peak until Friday. Other locations are also experiencing record to near-record flooding even as skies are clear and temps are finally fall-like.

I am going to head to Kinston on Thursday to place one or two unmanned cams to monitor the rising water in real time. I will share the link here and on social media so that residents who need to evacuate can still see what is going on in their town. I’ll have more on this tomorrow.

Meanwhile, tropical storm Nicole is slowly gathering strength south of Bermuda and is expected to become a hurricane again before passing very close to the island on Thursday. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been posted for Bermuda in anticipation of this event. It looks as though Nicole could be nearing category two intensity and as such, residents in Bermuda need to be ready for yet another hurricane over the coming days.

GFS model at day-5 showing the first signs of weak vorticity or spin in the lower levels of the atmosphere over the western Caribbea Sea.

GFS model at day-5 showing the first signs of weak vorticity or spin in the lower levels of the atmosphere over the western Caribbean Sea.

Once Nicole clears the pattern later this week, we will need to begin watching the western Caribbean for one last development cycle. All of the major global models are suggesting a large, sprawling area of low pressure will develop between days five and ten. Different models have different solutions for what happens after that so it’s best to just wait and see. For now, know that the western Caribbean is favored this time of year and, perhaps more importantly, the water temps in the region are as warm is it gets right now. Upper ocean heat content is nearly off the chart warm – so any disturbance that gets going in the region will more than enough fuel to become a powerful hurricane. This is an area we will need to monitor very closely as we get in to the weekend and early next week.

I will have my daily video discussion posted later this afternoon covering the latest river flooding info for eastern NC, Nicole and the western Caribbean potential for next week.

M. Sudduth 9:10 AM ET Oct 11

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Matthew moving along the North Carolina coast – once it exits, the freshwater flooding event begins and could be dangerous

Updated: 6:45 PM ET Oct 8

I am back in my office and home from a grueling but successful trip to Florida to intercept hurricane Matthew. I will go over the data collected etc. at a later time. Right now, the focus is shfiting to the threat of record inland flooding from excessive rain fall as a result of Matthew interacting with a trough of low pressure. Please watch the video discussion below and for interests in the eastern North Carolina region and parts of NE South Carolina, you need to be ready for this flooding. It will happen over the next few days and has potential to exceed the record set by Floyd in 1999. I will have another video update early tomorrow afternoon.

M. Sudduth 6:45 PM ET Oct 8

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Live cams set up for Matthew in SC

Update: 4:15 AM Eastern time October 8

I have relocated the two live camera stream is from Florida to South Carolina for the arrival of hurricane Matthew today. The links to the two cameras, one of them in Charleston, one of them in Murrells Inlet,  can be found below. Feel free to share these links with anyone you wish.

Charleston SC (the Battery)

Murrells Inlet SC (near Wicked Tuna)

I will have a complete discussion concerning Matthew and what to expect of the next 36 hours around noon Eastern time.

M Sudduth

 

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Matthew about to move out of the Bahamas and blast Florida

UPDATED: 6:45 PM ET Oct 6

There’s really not much else I can say as far as what people should be doing along the Florida East Coast tonight as Matthew approaches. Preparations should have been done hopefully commonsense prevails and everyone will get through the next 12 to 18 hours.

As has been the case lately, I have posted a video discussion which more thoroughly explains how I feel about things then I can write and a blog. Please check it out if you haven’t seen it via the link below.

Also, I have two unmanned cameras running in the New Smyrna Beach area.  You may view those here:

Cam 1- New Smyrna Beach #1

Cam 2- New Smyrna Beach #2

Mark Sudduth 6:45 pm ET Oct 6

 

 

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Almost eleven years since anything like this for Florida

UPDATED: 12:25 pm ET Oct 6

New live cam online now:

New Smyrna Beach: http://ustre.am/1rAmF

Matthew is passing through the NW Bahamas this morning with category three conditions being felt in areas such as Nassau and Andros Island. From there, the hurricane is likely get stronger as it approaches the southeast coast of Florida.

I am in Florida ready to cover the hurricane. Here is my latest video discussion including a look at how I plan to use technology to show you the impact like you’ve never seen before.

Link to live vehicle cam (will be up and running by 11am ET): http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack

M. Sudduth

9:35 AM ET Oct 6

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