First of all, the Atlantic is a non-issue right now. We are tracking TS Edouard but it will remain far out in the open Atlantic and be of issue only to shipping interests.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, only minor disturbances are scattered from the Gulf of Mexico to the tropical Atlantic. None of them are forecast to develop much at all in the coming days, keeping the very quiet Atlantic season in check.
The bigger issue appears to be hurricane Odile. Right now it is gaining strength off the coast of Mexico with winds of 85 mph. The NHC is forecasting Odile to strengthen further, perhaps rapidly in the coming days.
Interests along the Baja need to monitor the track closely which shows Odile far enough offshore to keep hurricane conditions away but that could change. The ECMWF model actually gets the hurricane quite close to the peninsula over the next few days and we could see a slight westward adjustment in the track from the NHC as a result.
Beyond the Baja, there is now a growing concern for more flooding issues in the Southwest U.S. around mid-week next week.
The pattern is eerily similar to the one that just produced record rainfall for Phoenix and the wash-out of parts of I-15 northeast of Las Vegas this past Monday afternoon.
Basically we’re looking at a squeeze play between moisture coming in from the Gulf of Mexico coupled with even deeper tropical moisture being pulled in from the Pacific due to the circulation of Odile. Unfortunately, California and Arizona are caught in the middle. Reading the NWS forecast discussion from Phoenix, it looks as though very high precip values will be present in the atmosphere once again next week. The risk of flash flooding looks to increase by Wednesday and through the end of the week ahead.
Sadly, the computer models cannot pinpoint where the heaviest rains will fall. This means people across the region, from SE California and Nevada and in to W Arizona need to be aware of this potentially disruptive and dangerous weather situation. We saw what happened this past week with numerous flood events taking place across the Desert Southwest. There is increasing potential for it to happen again this week so be alert if you live in or are planning to travel to the area.
I will be watching the situation closely and might decide to head out to the Southwest once again. I spent the better part of a week out there for the Norbert-induced flood event and saw first-hand what can happen. I think this time the focus will be more on SE CA and W AZ. We’ll see as each day unfolds and I will plan from there. Mark my words, this has the potential of being a high-impact flood event once again related to the effects of a Pacific hurricane.
I will have more here tomorrow.
M. Sudduth 3:13 PM ET Sept 13