Development threat increasing for Bay of Campeche as active pattern continues

Invest area 93L moving in to the Bay of Campeche

Invest area 93L moving in to the Bay of Campeche

It may take a few days, but it looks like we will get another tropical cyclone developing in the apparently fertile Bay of Campeche. The NHC says that invest area 93L should move in to the eastern portion of the region today and slowly develop – as long as it can remain over water.

Upper level winds look favorable and the water underneath is very warm. It looks like all the ingredients are in place for 93L to become our next tropical storm.

The forecast models are interesting to watch as they may be having an issue with 93L and the overall larger low pressure envelope or gyre that exists across the region, even extending in to the southeast Pacific. As such, it is difficult to determine when we may see something develop and this is somewhat important in terms of its future track and intensity.

Right now, it looks like we’ll have a low take shape over the next day or two with a track off to the north-northwest towards Mexico, well south of Texas.

However, the persistent onshore flow across the western Gulf of Mexico could lead to minor coastal flooding and an increase in showers and thunderstorms across the region. Heavy rain will be a serious issue for portions of eastern Mexico due to the slow motion of this system.

Elsewhere, Gabrielle is a tropical depression but has managed to develop limited deep convection again around its circulation center. It won’t be too much longer before Gabrielle is picked up by a trough and swept on across Nova Scotia as a post-tropical/extra-tropical system with rain and some wind but little more.

Out in the eastern Atlantic, Humberto remains a hurricane and is likely to be around for at least another week as it mills about the open Atlantic. This will help to drive up the seasonal ACE index which has been lagging quite a bit in recent weeks. There is still no indication that Humberto will impact land areas.

Beyond the short-range, the pattern looks to remain very active with the western Atlantic Basin, including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, being primed for development. Global models indicate numerous systems developing over the next 10 to 15 days and this is consistent with the time of year we are in coupled with the very warm water that remains intact across most of the western Atlantic and surrounding areas. There is nothing to pinpoint just yet in the long range but indications suggest that the Gulf and/or Caribbean will foster development again before the month is out. We’ll see what happens, just something to keep in mind as we progress through September.

I will have another blog post here this evening concerning 93L in the Bay of Campeche.

M. Sudduth 8:15 am ET Sept 12