Tropics going to be very busy for a while

TS Karl track map from the NHC. Click for full size.

TS Karl track map from the NHC. Click for full size.

We are past the mid-way point of the month and the climatological peak of the hurricane season. However, I do not think that means things will begin to calm down. Instead, it looks as though the Atlantic Basin will be very busy over the next few weeks.

Let’s begin with Julia. It’s interesting that the storm is even there in the first place since it was not forecast by any of the global models – yet, there it is. Ever since it was named it has defied almost every forecast that the NHC has put out on it. Fortunately Julia is far enough off the coast and is being sheared to the point where it is not much of an issue anyway. Strong upper level winds will likely keep it from wrapping the deep thunderstorms around the center. As for movement? Probably a slow drift pretty much where it now for the next couple of days. This will result in continued elevated rip currents for the Carolinas and Georgia but the rain and any wind will likely be well offshore.

Next up is a tropical disturbance with limited thunderstorm activity over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Time is running out for this to develop much further but it could bring periods of showers and thunderstorms with locally gusty winds to Texas and Louisiana before moving inland this weekend.

My main concern right now is tropical storm Karl. It was upgraded from TD12 last night and is moving west over the tropical Atlantic. The overall area of energy with Karl is very impressive but it means that it could take some time for it to consolidate and strengthen. Dry air out ahead of it will likely slow its growth but this will allow it to track well to the west with time.

The NHC, along with several of the intensity models, indicate that Karl will eventually find itself within an environment more conducive for strengthening. Warmer sea surface temperatures along with less and less shearing wind just might allow the storm to become a hurricane later in the forecast period.

As we track Karl, we should see a notable bend to the south in a couple of days as strong high pressure builds to its north. I do not think that this southward push will be enough to make it a direct threat to the Lesser Antilles. All of the guidance suggests a path well to the north of the islands but we cannot be 100% sure just yet.

As for what happens beyond the five day time period – a lot will depend on how far west Karl has tracked and how strong the western Atlantic high pressure area is at the time. It is simply impossible to know this far out whether or not the pattern favors any impacts for the East Coast or Bermuda for that matter. We are going to have to wait and see how things pan out as we move through mid-week next week. I suspect that Karl will have a lot of people talking and speculating on where it’s headed. For now, we have ample time to watch it and let the pattern evolve. It’s peak time during hurricane season – we should be ready for anything.

After Karl moves farther west across the Atlantic, I suspect we will have another area of low pressure to move off of Africa and try to develop. The global models are in generally good agreement on this and it’s possible that we could have Karl and Lisa on the map at the same time.

I will be watching things very closely over the weekend. Check back here, or our app, for new blog posts. I’ll also post video discussions covering what to watch for with all of these systems over the next several days.

M. Sudduth 12:40 PM ET Sept 16

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TS Ian forms out in open central Atlantic; otherwise, all is quiet

Visible satellite image showing TS Ian and not much else for the time being. Click for full size image.

Visible satellite image showing TS Ian and not much else for the time being. Click for full size image.

Hard to believe that it is close to mid-September and the only track-able feature is a highly sheared tropical storm named Ian.

The NHC upgraded what was invest area 94L to tropical storm Ian around 11am this morning. Top winds are 40 mph but mainly within what little organized convection the storm is able to generate. Strong upper level winds are pushing the deep thunderstorms away from the low level center and this will limit the development of Ian and could keep it from becoming a hurricane.

There is almost zero chance that Ian will directly impact the United States or any other area of the western Atlantic. Steering currents are such that a south to north movement will continue for now followed by a gradual turn to the northeast and in to the far North Atlantic. Ian will generate a few ACE points for the season but that’s about it.

Ian is the ninth named storm to form in 2016 and replaces Igor which itself replaced Ivan, both powerful hurricanes with lasting impacts worthy of having those names retired from the list. Ivan was a devastating hurricane from the 2004 season and so Igor replaced that name in 2010. As fate would have it, Igor was destined for infamy due to its destructive path which included massive damage in Newfoundland after brushing past Bermuda in the latter half of September 2010. I don’t think Ian is in jeopardy of having its name replaced this cycle.

Wind shear analysis where red is unfavorable. As you can see, the Atlantic Basin is full of strong upper level winds. Click for full size image.

Wind shear analysis where red is unfavorable. As you can see, the Atlantic Basin is full of strong upper level winds. Click for full size image.

As for the rest of the tropics – the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are all free and clear of any potential development threats. Strong upper level winds dominate the pattern right now and I do not see this changing anytime soon. There is plenty of warm water available, much of it above the long-term average in terms of temperature but without a favorable atmosphere, warm water alone is not enough.

Meanwhile out in the western Pacific, a typhoon with 180+ mph winds is tracking towards Taiwan and mainland China. This will be one to watch over the coming days as it is the equivalent to a category five hurricane. Forecast models suggest that it may track just far enough south of Taiwan to avoid a direct hit but this would mean a stronger impact for China a couple of days later. I’ll take a look at this and more in my video discussion which will be posted later this afternoon.

M. Sudduth 11:55 AM ET Sept 12

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Atlantic generally quiet, only a couple of areas to monitor

NHC graphical tropical weather outlook map showing two areas to watch over the coming days

NHC graphical tropical weather outlook map showing two areas to watch over the coming days

I’ll keep this fairly short and to the point as there really isn’t much to talk about right now.

Now that Hermine has come and gone things are quieting down for the time being. There are a couple of areas to monitor over the next few days but none seem ready to develop any time soon and certainly are of no concern for land areas.

The first feature is a broad area of low pressure that developed some fairly organized deep convection over night out to the east of the northern Leeward Islands. The NHC says in their morning outlook that any development should be slow to occur. I don’t see much in the computer models to suggest this system will do much but it’s there and is tracking over warm water at the peak of hurricane season so we’ll certainly keep an eye on it.

Next up is a large tropical wave and overall area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the far eastern Atlantic not too far off the coast of Africa. Here too, conditions seem only marginal for what ever reason and I expect development to be quite slow if at all. There just seems to be something missing from the Atlantic Basin again this season and it’s preventing the tropical waves from getting going like we saw from 2004 through 2008. Perhaps it’s a sign that things have changed back to a more normal or even inactive period of hurricane activity in the Atlantic. I just don’t know and we really won’t know unless this keeps going for a year or two more. For now, let’s enjoy the quiet spell since we know all to well what the alternative is.

M. Sudduth 8:40 AM ET Sept 8

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Hermine hanging around off Northeast coast as Newton hits Baja, brings rain threat to Southwest

Early morning visible satellite image of Hermine off the Northeast coast

Early morning visible satellite image of Hermine off the Northeast coast

The story of Hermine has yet to find its conclusion. The pesky, downright aggravating storm is still milling around off the Northeast coast. Fortunately, the environment combined with marginal sea surface temperatures will limit the amount of deep thunderstorms or convection and we won’t be having to deal with a hurricane just offshore.

As it stands, the system that we once called 99L, for a long time it seemed, is still packing 65 mph winds but those are confined to areas out over the open Atlantic. Onshore wind obs are lower but the seas are rough and with each high tide cycle, the beaches from New England south to parts of North Carolina keep getting chewed up. It’s like a slow, agonizing impact instead of in and out and be done with it. Sadly, it won’t come to an end for a few more days.

The complex steering pattern has resulted in Hermine being left behind and not caught  up in the westerly flow that we usually associate with sweeping tropical storms and hurricanes out to sea. Think of it as a rowdy kid who missed the morning bus. Now they are left to hang out in the neighborhood with no supervision – causing mayhem until another bus comes along. That’s Hermine in a nutshell. It missed the bus and now it’s sitting offshore being a pain in the butt.

About all I can say at this point is watch and wait for it to finally take off later this week. The coastal impacts are mounting but it is better than a direct hit from a true hurricane, I think we can all agree on that. Lucky for all of us, nothing is imminent once Hermine clears the pattern and gets out.

NHC track map showing hurricane Newton moving across the Baja, northwest Mexico and then in to the Southwest U.S.

NHC track map showing hurricane Newton moving across the Baja, northwest Mexico and then in to the Southwest U.S.

Meanwhile, hurricane Newton made landfall in the overnight hours along the Cabo San Lucas area of  the southern Baja peninsula. Top winds were near 90 mph and now the hurricane is headed more north with a turn towards the northeast expected. This will bring Newton across the Baja and in to northwest Mexico where torrential rain will likely move across the region and in to Arizona. We saw this twice in 2014 with Norbert and Odile moving out of the Pacific around this same time frame. Areas such as Tucson could see potentially heavy rains with gusty winds Wednesday and in to Thursday as the remnant low of Newton tracks in to the region. As such, a flash flood watch has been posted for parts of southern Arizona in anticipation of this event.

Elsewhere, the tropics are mostly quiet for now. The global models are suggesting a possible uptick in activity over the coming week to ten days but I am skeptical and for good reason. The models have done a terrible job of prediction genesis or the start of any tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic thus far. We need only look at Hermine as a fine example of this. Conditions are just not very favorable overall with considerable dry air still prevalent in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, acting like a cap keeping a lid of developing thunderstorms over the tropics.

I will have a thorough look at everything during my video discussion which will be posted later this afternoon.

M. Sudduth 9:15AM ET Sept 6

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More going on in the tropics than we’ve seen in quite some time

It’s the end of August and the tropics are busy. We have a pair of hurricanes that are headed towards Hawaii, one in the Atlantic that poses no threat to land, two disorganized depressions and one significant tropical wave that has just emerged off of Africa. Did I miss anything? I think that’s it. So let’s look at each area beginning in the central Pacific…

Hurricane Madeline

Hurricane Madeline track forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hurricane Madeline track forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Click for full size.

Just a couple of days ago the forecast for Madeline did not indicate it would even reach hurricane strength. My how that changed – it is now a category four with winds of 130 mph. It is currently moving west but is expected to track a little south of west over the next day or so and this just might keep the core of the worst weather south of Hawaii where a hurricane watch is currently in effect for the Big Island.

The official forecast brings the center fairly close and the Big Island would be within the right-front quadrant of the hurricane as it passes by. This is usually the stronger side of a hurricane relative to its forward movement and as such, it is possible that hurricane conditions could be experienced throughout portions the region. In addition, dangerously high waves along with very heavy rain could cause localized damage. Hawaii is a unique geographic location for hurricanes to impact and so pinpointing the effects is hard to do; so much depends on the eventual track and intensity. Needless to say, residents and visitors on the Big Island need to be preparing for a hurricane today and tomorrow in anticipation of Madeline’s arrival or close passage sometime on Thursday.

Hurricane Lester

Meanwhile, off to the east of Madeline is hurricane Lester with winds of 125 mph, down from a peak of 140 yesterday.

The good news here is that Lester is currently forecast to track to the north of the islands over the next few days and should also weaken considerably while doing so. As such, I am not nearly as concerned about impacts from Lester as I am about Madeline for Hawaii.

There will be another increase in the swells and local high surf due to the intensity of Lester in recent days. While the surfers in Hawaii can take advantage of this, novice swimmers should avoid tangling with the big waves headed to the area.

Satellite photo showing hurricane Gaston, TD8 and TD9

Satellite photo showing hurricane Gaston, TD8 and TD9

Hurricane Gaston

Moving along in to the Atlantic where hurricane Gaston has weakened some overnight. Top winds here are 100 mph but there is a large eye apparent on satellite imagery. It is possible that the hurricane could strengthen again over the fairly warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. Gaston is only an issue for shipping lanes as it will likely turn northeast out over the open water with an increase in forward speed.

TD8

Tropical depression 8, just off the North Carolina coast, is trying to wrap deep thunderstorms around its well defined center of circulation this morning. It won’t take much for it to strengthen over the very warm water and become a tropical storm. If it does so before TD9 does, it would be named Hermine.

The effects overall will be minimal with a few passing rain bands and locally gusty winds at times for the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Even the waves will not be too much of an issue since the wind is not very strong right now but locally higher surf is possible within any squalls that happen to make it to the coast.

The forecast is for the depression to possibly become a tropical storm and then turn north and eventually northeast and away from land.

TD9

The forecast for TD9 remains very complex which seems to have been the case ever since it was just an area of interest or tropical wave several days ago.

During the overnight hours, deep thunderstorms have managed to expand and possibly cover the low level center. If this is the case, it might be that we finally have a tropical storm out of this system. The Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the depression off and on today and we’ll know more later if it’s not obvious based on satellite that it has in fact strengthened.

Overall the idea of a Florida Big Bend area landfall on Thursday seems intact. The question is really more about how strong it manages to get before that time. Upper level winds are not particularly favorable but could be just enough so that the depression makes it to tropical storm intensity plus perhaps a little more strengthening after that.

I see two main impacts from this system that concern me. First, storm surge flooding along the immediate coast. The area of Florida that the system is forecast to move in to is very vulnerable to storm surge from tropical storms and hurricanes. The onshore flow, combined with the fact that the would-be storm will be pushing water in the direction that it is moving means several feet of inundation is possible. We won’t know how much is being predicted until later on and especially so when and if it becomes a tropical storm. Areas in the Big Bend region down to the Nature Coast should be prepared for some coastal storm surge issues on Thursday – this includes an increase in wave action as well along what is normally a very placid Gulf of Mexico.

Rainfall forecast over the next few days highlighting the chance for excessive rain totals in parts of Florida.

Rainfall forecast over the next few days highlighting the chance for excessive rain totals in parts of Florida.

The other significant impact will be the heavy rain. Several inches is likely to fall across portions of Florida and this will lead to areas of localized flooding. It’s impossible to pinpoint which areas will receive the most rain and when but it’s a good bet that north-central Florida will see rainfall totals exceeding 5 inches with isolated higher amounts.

I am not as concerned about the wind since the model guidance does not suggest a very high chance of this becoming a hurricane. However, the official forecast calls for 65 mph near landfall which is enough to knock down some trees and cause minor damage to property. Scattered power outages will also occur but it all depends on the final intensity near the time of landfall.

Once inland, the threat of heavy rain will spread in to southeast Georgia and northern Florida as the storm system moves towards the Atlantic. From there, things get very interesting. It is possible that we will see quite a ramping up of intensity once it gets out over the very warm water and begins moving off to the north and east. It is possible at that point that it could become a hurricane.

We will have to watch closely how the pattern evolves over the coming days as there is some hint in the models that the system could track fairly close to the coast as high pressure tries to build in across the western Atlantic again. If it gets blocked enough, it is not out of the question that another landfall or very close approach to the coast could take place farther north. This is something we can worry about later on but it is beginning to show up in some of the models so keep that in mind along the Mid-Atlantic states and points north. I’m not too concerned just yet but the trend has my attention.

I am planning to head down to Florida tomorrow to set up a couple of our unmanned cameras along the immediate coast. I will also have the ability to provide live wind and pressure data from the on-board weather station atop my Chevy Tahoe. I will not set out any additional weather stations for this event but will have a live stream coming from the vehicle so that I can relay instant wind readings as I record them on the anemometer.

I will outline not only the goings on in the tropics but also my plans for setting up the cameras along the Gulf Coast of Florida in anticipation of the landfall on Thursday during my video discussion which I will post early this afternoon. This will be followed by another blog post early this evening.

M. Sudduth 8:30 AM ET Aug 30

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