Small window for small system to develop in extreme southern Gulf of Mexico

Invest area 90L slowly trying to organize in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico

Invest area 90L slowly trying to organize in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico

The only area of interest in the Atlantic Basin is 90L, situated way down deep in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

It is a small weather feature but has a chance, perhaps due in part to its small size, that it could become a tropical depression later today. Upper level winds are not especially favorable but it appears that some deeper convection is developing near the center. Water temps are quite warm and so it won’t take much for it to acquire enough organization to perhaps become the first tropical depression of the 2014 season.

The main issue has been and will continue to be rain. Fortunately, with the area being quite small, the impact to land will be limited. Nevertheless, heavy rain over portions of Central America will be something to contend with as this system festers in the Bay of Campeche.

Most computer guidance suggests that it will eventually move inland over southern Mexico, probably well south of Tampico. Even if it is able to attain tropical depression, or even become a tropical storm, it will not have much time to strengthen before upper level winds become too hostile and land interaction becomes a factor. Again, the main impact will be heavy rain and this can cause loss of life and damage due to mudslides and flash flooding.

Elsewhere, the Atlantic and east Pacific are nice and quiet as we enter the first full weekend of the hurricane season.

I will have an update here early this evening once more data becomes available on 90L – including the chance that recon will fly in to investigate.

M. Sudduth 10:11 AM ET June 6

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Invest 90L in southern Gulf not much of a concern

Invest 90L in the southern Gulf of Mexico

Invest 90L in the southern Gulf of Mexico

A weak surface trough of low pressure has draped itself across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Water temps are plenty warm and there is even some growing deep ocean heat content but the limiting factor by far is upper level winds.

Water temps can be 90 degrees and it won’t matter if upper level winds are blowing too strong across a developing system. This is true for tropical waves and other areas of disturbed weather that are “trying” to develop over tropical waters.

The ideal upper pattern is one that allows the clouds to rise, we call this convection, and then be thrown out in a clock-wise direction in an even fashion. It helps to have so-called outflow channels too which aid in further evacuation of the rising air.

Strong upper level winds blowing across 90L will keep it from developing over the coming days

Strong upper level winds blowing across 90L will keep it from developing over the coming days

In the case of 90L, the upper level winds are cutting across the cloud mass which acts like blowing out a candle. The convection cannot thrive and persist and thus the heat engine never really has a chance to get going.

In any case, the NHC is monitoring and so will our team. Mike Watkins will have some interesting model plots at his site and I will post them here from time to time as we track this feature over the next few days.

The bottom line is that nothing leads me to believe this will develop in to anything substantial, at least not wind-wise. Heavy rain is always an issue with tropical weather systems and this will be no different. Fortunately, it is not a large, sprawling area so its impact will be limited in coverage.

The east Pacific is quiet now since TS Boris made landfall early this morning in extreme southeast Mexico. Some of that energy will spread across from the Pacific and in to the southern Gulf of Mexico but again, upper level winds should preclude any significant development.

I’ll have another post this evening regarding a new feature we are unveiling in our app, Hurricane Impact.

M. Sudduth 11:06 AM ET June 4

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