Invest 90L in the southern Gulf of Mexico
A weak surface trough of low pressure has draped itself across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Water temps are plenty warm and there is even some growing deep ocean heat content but the limiting factor by far is upper level winds.
Water temps can be 90 degrees and it won’t matter if upper level winds are blowing too strong across a developing system. This is true for tropical waves and other areas of disturbed weather that are “trying” to develop over tropical waters.
The ideal upper pattern is one that allows the clouds to rise, we call this convection, and then be thrown out in a clock-wise direction in an even fashion. It helps to have so-called outflow channels too which aid in further evacuation of the rising air.
Strong upper level winds blowing across 90L will keep it from developing over the coming days
In the case of 90L, the upper level winds are cutting across the cloud mass which acts like blowing out a candle. The convection cannot thrive and persist and thus the heat engine never really has a chance to get going.
In any case, the NHC is monitoring and so will our team. Mike Watkins will have some interesting model plots at his site and I will post them here from time to time as we track this feature over the next few days.
The bottom line is that nothing leads me to believe this will develop in to anything substantial, at least not wind-wise. Heavy rain is always an issue with tropical weather systems and this will be no different. Fortunately, it is not a large, sprawling area so its impact will be limited in coverage.
The east Pacific is quiet now since TS Boris made landfall early this morning in extreme southeast Mexico. Some of that energy will spread across from the Pacific and in to the southern Gulf of Mexico but again, upper level winds should preclude any significant development.
I’ll have another post this evening regarding a new feature we are unveiling in our app, Hurricane Impact.
M. Sudduth 11:06 AM ET June 4