Fred was an amazing event- bringing hurricane conditions to a small portion of the Cape Verde Islands yesterday; something not seen in well over 100 years in that region.
Now Fred is weakening as it encounters cooler water and more stable environment overall. The short-lived hurricane added a few ACE points to the season total which is now near 20 for those keeping score. ACE is the seasonal accumulation of actual energy that is output by tropical storms and hurricanes. Normally we see an ACE “score” of around 104 – most predicted 40 or less for this season. We are half way there and it’s only September 1.
So what’s happening now that Fred is on the way out? In short, not much. Take a look at the upper level winds on the graphic. I have highlighted the strongest band of upper level winds which are literally tearing across the deep tropics right now. We are talking about several thousand miles of ocean and the atmosphere above it that is essentially shut down from a tropical development stand point. Any westward moving tropical wave will be met with strong eastward moving wind that will literally tear the system apart.
There are some signs that this could change in the coming week to ten days but don’t look for anything drastic, maybe a slight relaxation of the shear. This would come as a more favorable MJO or Madden-Julion Oscillation migrates through the Western Hemisphere as indicated by the GFS and the ECMWF models. However, it doesn’t look to be very strong and as such, I don’t see much chance for any development over the next five to seven days.
Meanwhile, the Pacific continues to put on quite a show. Hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena all remain out over open water, far from land. The record pace of the Pacific season is not just due to the El Nino but a warm north Pacific as a whole, something we have not seen in quite a while.
In the east Pacific, TD 14-E is forecast to strengthen in to a tropical storm as it tracks generally northward. However, conditions do not appear to favor a hurricane forming out of it and even if it did, weakening is indicated later in the forecast period. I see no reason for this to be an issue for the Baja or elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Mexico.
That’s it for now. Enjoy the fairly quiet start to September. This is typically the busiest month of the season, even in El Nino years. Will we end the month without a hurricane strike along the U.S. coast? Only one way to find out!
I’ll have more tomorrow.
M. Sudduth 11:30 AM ET Sept 1