For Florida and the Southeast U.S., track will literally mean everything

Updated: 9 AM ET Sept 7

Hurricane Irma is now moving just north of the Dominican Republic as a category five on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. I suspect that it will weaken some as it has some disruption of the core and overall circulation due to the proximity to the Greater Antilles (Hispaniola and Cuba). However, in another couple of days, Irma will be passing over some of the warmest, highest ocean heat content around and could be the strongest it has ever been.

The track forecast is complicated not so much because of any great spread in the models but because every mile will make a difference in terms of where the greatest impacts are felt.

For the next couple of days, the Turks & Caicos along with the remainder of much of the Bahamas will feel the brunt of Irma’s fury – again, exactly where the core crosses will determine the which areas receive the highest wind and storm surge.

I am about to head out from Wilmington, NC to Florida to possibly set up specialized equipment there to monitor the conditions. I have produced a video discussion going over the latest model output from the ECMWF and GFS – with interesting and important comparions/contrasts between the two.

I will be streaming live as I travel via this link:

Live Cam from HurricaneTrack Chevy Tahoe

M. Sudduth

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