Wanted to post some thoughts on 99L this very late hour of Friday night/early Saturday morning. It’s been a long week and tonight I can sleep soundly and not wonder what the future model output will show for the storm that never was.
I also want to comment on the other areas that bear watching as we progress through the weekend. One thing is fairly clear to me: there are no hurricane threats looming so we have that going for us.
As it turned out, the environment just didn’t support the development of the tropical wave that garnered so much attention this past week. Invest area 99L as it become widely known as will just pass in to the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Straits this weekend with little more than passing squalls. While I can’t say development chances are zero, in my opinion, the chance of this becoming a hurricane is as close to zero as one could ask for. It’s just not going to happen this time. Despite the HWRF model blowing it up run after run in to a formidable hurricane, upper level conditions and the lack of overall organization of the system should keep this a scenario only inside of the computer model’s world.
Now we have a couple of other areas to watch – one in the Gulf of Mexico, the other not far from Bermuda over the Atlantic. Neither system look to develop much in the coming days – part of the overall negative pattern we seem to be in right now. Even TS Gaston is struggling as of late but it is forecast by most of the global model guidance to bust through the shear and other limiting factors to finally become a classic open Atlantic hurricane. It too poses no threat to land and I don’t see it ever becoming an issue except for an increase in ocean swells depending on how strong it gets and how far west it tracks.
In the east Pacific, tropical storm Madeline is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it moves in the general direction of Hawaii next week. Water temps in the region are running a little above normal so it’s possible that Madeline could make it to Hawaii as a tropical storm. It’s tough as heck to hit the Big Island from the east so we’ll see how this pans out. There is plenty of time to monitor the situation and react as needed as we know more about the track and intensity of this Pacific tropical storm.
Last but not least, I will be watching with keen interest as a new tropical wave emerges from Africa early next week. The GFS in particular has been very consistent in developing it right away and moving west for quite a while. The steering pattern that the GFS has been showing is one that could keep what ever might develop moving along just south of 20N latitude for several days at least. That being said, I do not see this being a threat to the Lesser Antilles, not in the modeling anyway. It’s early and it’s prime time for the Atlantic hurricane season and we know how quickly things can change. This next system will be something to keep an eye assuming the modeling is correct and it does in fact develop. Time will tell.
That’s it for now, time for some deep sleep and then more posts coming over the weekend.
M. Sudduth 12:35 AM ET Aug 27