Atlantic Basin mostly quiet

Joint Tyhpoon Warning Center track map showing typhoon Wipha in the west Pacific

Joint Tyhpoon Warning Center track map showing typhoon Wipha in the west Pacific

The Atlantic Basin will remain pretty quiet this weekend and probably throughout the week ahead. We are getting to be point in the season where development chances really begin to dwindle from a climatological perspective. However, with plenty of very warm water still around, it’s not over until it’s over.

So, what’s out there to watch? We only have one system of interest and that is 98L in the open tropical Atlantic. It had a shot at development yesterday but upper level winds are getting to be too strong and I think the chances of this system becoming a tropical storm are going down with each passing day. The low level moisture and energy will track westward but should weaken with time and not pose any significant threat to the Caribbean or elsewhere.

Meanwhile, severe tropical cyclone Phailin is making landfall along the Indian coastline as a weakening equivalent to a category three or four hurricane. While the winds are losing their punch, the storm surge already put in to motion is likely to be rather bad for the region. We’ll see what news reports come out of the region in the days ahead. While the cyclone is certainly very dangerous and will undoubtedly cause massive damage and considerable loss of life, the region is fortunate that such a storm did not make landfall in Bangladesh where some of the worst storm surge events in human history have taken place due to intense cyclones moving northward in the Bay of Bengal.

In the west Pacific, typhoon Nari will make landfall in Vietnam in the next day or so while another large typhoon, Wipha, is set to lash Japan later this coming week.

The interesting parallel with this typhoon is the location of Tokyo in relation to say, Cape Hatteras. Both areas are prone to tropical cyclone strikes as both locations are situated at roughly 35 degrees north latitude. Take a look at a map some time and compare the similarities of Cape Hatteras with Tokyo. It’s uncanny and especially so since passing storms and hurricanes need only jog a little more west to bring severe conditions to each region.

In the case of typhoon Wipha, obviously Tokyo has an enormously higher population than the Outer Banks of North Carolina and as such, how close the typhoon tracks will be critical in terms of effects for the Japanese city. I just found it interesting to consider the relative locations of each area even though they are literally oceans apart.

I’ll have more here tomorrow.

M. Sudduth 12:55 PM ET Oct 12

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