New depression forming in the SW Gulf while 94L develops in east Atlantic

Remnants of TD 7 in the SW Gulf

Remnants of TD 7 in the SW Gulf

Early morning satellite imagery shows that what was once TD 7 is coming back to life again in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The NHC is indicating a 70% chance of it becoming a tropical depression again before it moves inland this weekend.

Computer models suggest a WNW to NE track towards Mexico as a tropical storm or category one hurricane (SHIPs model shows it reaching hurricane intensity). The overall circulation is fairly small and will only affect a limited area of the southwest to western Gulf and I do not see much impact for Texas. However, it is possible that some of the northern rain bands will move in to south Texas over the weekend. The main threat will be very heavy rains for Mexico with the possibility of a strengthening tropical storm at landfall. The NHC has tasked a recon plane to investigate the area later today if conditions warrant.

Meanwhile, we have a new area of interest just off the African coast that certainly bears watching. It has been designated as invest 94L and should steadily develop as it moves westward over the deep tropics.

All of the global computer models indicate that it will develop and it is likely to become a hurricane at some point since conditions are becoming more favorable along its path. This will be one to watch very closely as we move through the week next week. For now, it is in its early stages of development and we’ll just monitor how it develops over the weekend.

In the east Pacific, Hector has dissipated and there are no other areas of concern brewing in that region. I’ll post another blog here later this afternoon or early evening and will cover all of the goings on in the tropics thoroughly in the video blog to be posted in our app early this afternoon.

Some thoughts on TD7

Wide Atlantic Tracking map showing TD 7

Wide Atlantic Tracking map showing TD 7

We now have TD7 in the tropical Atlantic and it is forecast to become a tropical storm as it passes through the Lesser Antilles and in to the Caribbean Sea. The path looks very similar to Ernesto’s though TD7 has formed quite a bit farther to the east than Ernesto.

It is interesting that once again, the global models, namely the GFS and ECMWF, do very little with the depression while the less “sophisticated” statistical intensity models make it a moderate to strong tropical storm. As I mentioned in this mornings video blog for our app, there seems to be a lack of vertical instability across the Atlantic Basin again this season and this is perhaps putting a literal lid on things. We saw this time after time last season and ended up with a lot of named storms but not many intense ones overall.

Never the less, we’ll be tracking yet another tropical cyclone in to the eastern Caribbean over the next few days and since it is on the maps, we need to take it seriously- just in case the global models have missed some piece of info that would otherwise make TD7 something more than they depict it.

Note that the fast motion of the depression is also something that needs to be considered. When they move fast, like we saw with Ernesto, they tend to outrun their own deep convection and lose organization. It will be another interesting duel between the dynamic models and the statistical models as we track TD 7 steadily westward. I’ll have more tomorrow morning.