Intensity graph showing considerable spread between the regional hurricane models and the larger scale global models
There is not a lot of it, but deep convection is finally developing around at least part of the circulation of 93L. It is limited to the southern half of the low pressure area and any additional increase, especially on the northern side, would easily bring the system to tropical depression status – maybe even to tropical storm strength as well.
It is remarkable how well the low pressure area has held together amid such dry conditions in the deep tropics. This pattern has been in play for the past few years and, in this case for sure, has kept hurricane activity in this region to a minimum.
Taking a look at the latest intensity guidance, there are mixed signals this morning. Some of the model data suggests that this could become a hurricane while other data maintains a weak system that actually stays weak throughout the coming days. Breaking it down a bit, the regional hurricane models, developed just for predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones, are more bullish on development than the larger scale global models. The GFS, for example, shows the system basically dissipating as it moves across the northern Caribbean Sea. I think that there is a small window of opportunity for 93L to become a tropical storm before more negative conditions hinder additional strengthening. We’ll see – as I have said all along, I am skeptical of deep tropical development right now due to the fact that nothing much has come from this region in quite some time.
The track forecast seems a little more straight forward and indicates a general west to west-northwest movement towards the Lesser Antilles. As such, interests in the area should be watching the progress of 93L closely. While it looks like the impacts would be limited due to the low intensity, it is possible that tropical storm conditions will arrive in the region over the next few days. We’ll see what the NHC has to say about all of this around 11am ET when the first advisory could be issued on what could be tropical depression three or even tropical storm Bertha.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, all is quiet as we end the month of July.
In the east Pacific, there is plenty of activity to watch but nothing close to land and I see nothing in the computer guidance to suggest a change to that anytime soon.
I’ll have more here later today with additional updates on our Twitter and Facebook feeds.
M. Sudduth 8:07 AM ET July 31