Satellite image of TD2 in the Bay of Campeche
Tropical depression two is making an attempt at becoming a tropical storm before finally moving inland over Mexico within the next 24 hours. However, time is running out and the depression is not extremely well organized which should limit its potential for strengthening.
A Hurricane Hunter crew is en route to check the depression later this afternoon and their on-site info will give forecasters a much closer look at the structure as well as the winds in the system.
Whether or not it becomes TS Barry, the main impact will be heavy rain and some increase in winds and seas in the region. Fortunately, there is simply not much water to work with and this will limit any significant strengthening prior to landfall.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a vigorous tropical wave is passing through the Lesser Antilles and towards Puerto Rico and vicinity. This wave will bring showers, a few thunderstorms and locally gusty winds as it moves through. None of the global model guidance develops this wave as conditions are not favorable right now.
In the east Pacific, all is quiet here but I suspect that within the next week or so we will see an increase in activity here as a more favorable upward motion pattern begins to set in. I’ll discuss this in more detail in tomorrow’s blog post.
TD2 track map from the NHC
Tropical depression two is still situated over Central America this morning and may not ever reach water again. The latest forecast from the NHC indicates a general west-northwest motion will continue today followed by a turn to the west. It is noted in the latest discussion that the depression may actually track just south of due west. If this is the case, it is unlikely that the center will have much, if any, time over the Bay of Campeche.
Even though the depression is quite weak, it is still bringing a lot of rain to portions of Central America. Heavy rain from tropical cyclones, even depressions like this one, can cause life-threatening flooding conditions, especially in areas with high topography. The threat of heavy rain will persist for the next several days across the region.
The remainder of the tropics, including the east Pacific, are nice and quiet right now. I do not see any solid chances for future development over the next several days. The Atlantic Basin is generally within a downward phase of the MJO or Madden-Julian Oscillation which is typically not favorable for prolific tropical cyclone development. This does not completely rule it out, however, and as we saw with TD2, tropical waves can find a ripe environment and take advantage of it. At least in thise case, land interaction stopped the growth of this particular system.
I’ll have more Wednesday morning.
The NHC saw enough evidence of a low level center with well organized convection associated with the tropical wave in the Gulf of Honduras this morning to upgrade it to TD2. For several hours, right up until landfall anyway, the depression seemed poised to become a tropical storm with well defined banding and decent outflow aloft. Now that it’s over land, it has been cut off from the warm water supply that was fueling the deep convection and weakening should commence.
The official track shows the circulation making it out over the extreme southern Bay of Campeche by mid-week. If this happens, then there is a very narrow window of opportunity for the depression to reach tropical storm intensity before making landfall for a final time well south of Tampico.
The threat of heavy rain will continue for portions of Central America with as much as half a foot possible in isolated areas.
Thanks to a nice bubble of high pressure over the southern U.S. there is no chance for the depression to get pulled north and in to the Gulf of Mexico. This is common during June and July as large “heat ridges” set up shop over the southern U.S. – usually keeping Caribbean development buried well to the south.
I’ll have more here tomorrow morning.