East Pacific getting busy – will western Caribbean/Gulf follow?

East Pacific tropical storm Aletta tracking map from the NHC

East Pacific tropical storm Aletta tracking map from the NHC

The east Pacific has its first named storm – Aletta – which is forecast to become a hurricane at it moves away from the Mexican coastline over the coming days. The formation is right in line with what we would expect to see this time of year in the eastern Pacific, so nothing unusual happening here.

We will likely also see another storm develop further to the south and east towards the weekend but with strong deep layer high pressure to the north, it too is probably going to remain offshore of Central America and Mexico. This is fairly common to see this time of the year when upper level troughs are few and far between in this region. Later on during the season, usually in latter August and in to September, we see the pattern shift and tracks tend to bend back towards the north and east, threatening the Pacific coast of Mexico and even the southwest United States.

6z GFS showing the beginnings of a new tropical system developing out of the Caribbean Sea in about a week. Something to watch for now as none of the other reliable guidance seems to suggest such an event.

6z GFS showing the beginnings of a new tropical system developing out of the Caribbean Sea in about a week. Something to watch for now as none of the other reliable guidance seems to suggest such an event.

On the other side of the land mass, the Atlantic Basin remains quiet for now. We do need to monitor an old frontal boundary that is draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico. There are some signs within the global models that a small but potent area of vorticity or spin may try to develop and hug the coast, eventually moving in to the Atlantic off the coast of Jacksonville. Plenty of additional rain is likely while the stalled front hangs around – and any development of a low pressure area would only enhance this; something we will need to monitor over the next day or two.

And finally, the GFS is alone again in forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone originating out of the western Caribbean in about a week. It’s hard to say if the model is simply having issues handling energy being pulled in off of South America, generating the kick so to speak to get things started, or if we may in fact need to watch the region closer in the coming days. I suppose it never hurts to at least be aware and wait and see what happens.

I will have a full rundown on all of these topics and more during today’s video discussion to be posted later this afternoon.

M. Sudduth

9:00 am ET June 6