Tracking Beryl and Chris

Beryl

It looks as though Beryl has already degenerated in to a tropical wave and is likely no longer a true tropical storm. However, the technical classification won’t matter too much as the effects will generally be the same: gusty winds, periods of heavy rain and locally rough seas as it approaches the Lesser Antilles throughout the day and tonight.

The forecast from the NHC indicates that Beryl will in fact be only a tropical wave by tonight as it moves very quickly in to the eastern Caribbean Sea. From that point on, we will certainly monitor the future progress of the system as there are indications in the model guidance that it may try to stage a comeback once it reaches the southwest Atlantic well east of Florida and the Bahamas. For now, it will be a nuisance event for some of the islands of the eastern Caribbean.

Chris

Next we have tropical storm Chris which was upgraded this morning. Top winds are 45 mph and are forecast to increase and Chris is expected to become the season’s second hurricane; well ahead of the climatological norm.

The impacts from the tropical storm will be minimal for the coast of North Carolina and elsewhere since Chris is not going to get any closer at this point. That being said, the threat of rough surf and deadly rip currents will persist for several days and needs to be taken seriously. If there are red flags flying at the beach, it means NO SWIMMING and you really should stay out of the water. I know it’s frustrating but so is planning a funeral, so heed the warnings and use extreme caution if you will be at the beach anywhere along the Carolina coast and eventually the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as the week progresses. Swells from what is likely to be a hurricane will affect a large portion of the East Coast and it’s the height of beach season – just keep this in mind.

As for the future track of Chris, it looks as though it will move quite slowly at first and then move on out to the northeast with potential direct impacts for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later this coming week.

Water temps are quite cold in the region but the warm Gulf Stream will provide plenty of energy to allow Chris to steadily intensify as it moves away from the U.S. coast. It will be losing its warm, tropical characteristics as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes but heavy rain and strong winds are a good bet at some point over the coming days. Let’s see how strong and how well organized Chris becomes over the next couple of days – then we can fine-tune what impacts are to be expected later on.

Elsewhere, the tropics are quiet including the east Pacific which has no threat of development anytime soon.

M. Sudduth 2:10 PM ET July 8

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