Nadine strengthening but poses no threat to land; might be a while before anything develops to be concerned about

TS Nadine Gaining Strength in the Open Atlantic

TS Nadine Gaining Strength in the Open Atlantic

Tropical storm Nadine is quickly ramping up and should be a hurricane fairly soon. It is situated in a favorable pattern with warm sea surface temps to work with and I think it will become the second category three hurricane of the season at some point.

No worries though, Nadine is never going to get much past 55W before turning north and northeast. It could eventually pose a threat to the Azores but that is probably a week away or more.

Nadine represents a continuation of the pattern that has allowed numerous hurricanes to form and turn harmlessly out in to the Atlantic. Sure a few have impacted Bermuda or the East Coast in recent years but most have not come close enough to warrant much concern. I see this pattern remaining in place for any eastern Atlantic development for perhaps the remainder of the season. It won’t be until the natural evolution of development to shift back to the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf in the latter half of the month that we might have something to track closer to land areas.

GFS Indicating a Possible Return to Favorable MJO Conditions in the Coming Two Weeks

GFS Indicating a Possible Return to Favorable MJO Conditions in the Coming Two Weeks

In fact, the MJO phase may come right in to those regions as indicated by some of the long range model guidance. This would time quite well with the shift in pattern that occurs this time of year. For now, however, the Atlantic Basin has nothing aimed towards land, at least not on the western side.

In the east Pacific, tropical storm Kristy formed today not too far off of Mexico and will move away from land and towards cooler water. In this region, the upper pattern has mostly favored westward moving storms and hurricanes and this pattern is likely to also continue for the next several weeks.

Be sure to read tomorrow’s blog post as I will have a very special announcement regarding a major project that we are about to undertake. I am actually announcing it to our private clients tonight at 8pm ET so if you’re a member, be sure to log in and watch the live announcement on the main Client Services homepage. Then, tomorrow morning, I’ll have a big write up on what we’re up to. I am very excited about it and think that you will be too!

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