This tropical wave may develop next week in the Bay of Campeche
Just when it looked like things would remain quiet for a while, things change. The NHC is watching an area of showers and thunderstorms, associated with a tropical wave, as it moves slowly through the western Caribbean.
As of this morning, the NHC was giving the area a 20% chance of developing over the next 48 hours. In looking at satellite images of the region, there is definitely an increase in deep convection associated with the system.
Water temps in the area are plenty warm but vertical wind shear, the difference in wind speed with height, is running above average right now. This means that upper level conditions are not quite there yet to allow for much development. However, the NHC notes that conditions may improve over the next few days as the tropical wave moves over Central America.
Global computer models are not too ambitious about development though the GFS in particular does show a well defined low pressure area in the southern Bay of Campeche within three to four days. It is not unusual for tropical waves to develop in this region fairly quickly. There is something about the make-up of the area that seems to foster small but quick growing tropical cyclones.
Right now the main impact will be heavy rains spreading across the western Caribbean in to Central America. Early next week, it is possible that we will see a tropical storm form in the Bay of Campeche and so interests in that region should pay close attention to this developing situation.
The weather pattern at present does not favor this system coming north enough to affect the United States. This looks to be an issue for areas along the southern Yucatan and in to the Bay of Campeche next week.
I’ll post more in this system tomorrow morning.
Vigorous Tropical Wave That Will Affect the Lesser Antilles in a Few Days
The tropics are busy, sure, but with no threats to land, there is probably not much interest in what’s going on out there. However, we do have a tropical wave that has flared up in recent days that is bound for the Caribbean Sea.
While none of the global models develop this wave to any significance, it will likely bring a period of squally weather to portions of the Lesser Antilles in the coming days. This is probably one of the last of the vigorous tropical waves that we will see for a while as the season is progressing towards favoring the western parts of the Atlantic Basin rather than the region between Africa and the Islands.
Meanwhile, hurricane Nadine continues to move away from the U.S. and could be an issue for the Azores Islands several days down the road. In fact, the global models suggest that it will linger in the Atlantic for perhaps another 10 days. Sometimes these systems get stuck in the current pattern and can hang on for days on end.
The east Pacific has TS Kristy which is falling apart off the Baja and TD #12-E which is not expected to impact land as it strengthens some and moves generally northwest with time.
I’ll have more here tomorrow. Be sure to catch the video blog for today which has been uploaded to our iPhone app.
I know that folks in Florida will be glad to see Debby moving on off the coast and out in to the Atlantic. The storm dumped anywhere from 12 to 20+ inches of rain across portions of Florida. Freshwater flooding will be an ongoing concern as rivers fill with the run off and swell to flood stage and beyond. You can check the progress of the flooding situation by utilizing the fantastic resources of the Southeast River Forecast Center. Click here to access their site. It will give you specific river flooding info for your area and provide daily updates to that data.
Debby is certainly a lesson in understanding all of the effects of a tropical cyclone. I hope that people realize that we’re not just worried about the impacts from big, mean hurricanes. Even a moderate tropical storm, even a depression, can dump excessive amounts of rain on an area and cause significant flooding issues.
Once Debby leaves Florida behind, it will move out in to the Atlantic and likely regain some of its strength over the warm waters. However, it will move away from the Southeast and not be a problem any longer.
The remainder of the tropics are mostly quiet although there is a well developed tropical wave moving westward across the open tropical Atlantic. The NHC tagged it last night as “low probability for development”. This area is not usually favorable for development in June so the fact that we are seeing some potential is interesting. I’ll keep an eye on the system as it moves westward. It is likely going to bring some rain and squally weather to portions of the Lesser Antilles in a few days but should remain only a tropical wave and not develop much.