The story of Hermine has yet to find its conclusion. The pesky, downright aggravating storm is still milling around off the Northeast coast. Fortunately, the environment combined with marginal sea surface temperatures will limit the amount of deep thunderstorms or convection and we won’t be having to deal with a hurricane just offshore.
As it stands, the system that we once called 99L, for a long time it seemed, is still packing 65 mph winds but those are confined to areas out over the open Atlantic. Onshore wind obs are lower but the seas are rough and with each high tide cycle, the beaches from New England south to parts of North Carolina keep getting chewed up. It’s like a slow, agonizing impact instead of in and out and be done with it. Sadly, it won’t come to an end for a few more days.
The complex steering pattern has resulted in Hermine being left behind and not caught up in the westerly flow that we usually associate with sweeping tropical storms and hurricanes out to sea. Think of it as a rowdy kid who missed the morning bus. Now they are left to hang out in the neighborhood with no supervision – causing mayhem until another bus comes along. That’s Hermine in a nutshell. It missed the bus and now it’s sitting offshore being a pain in the butt.
About all I can say at this point is watch and wait for it to finally take off later this week. The coastal impacts are mounting but it is better than a direct hit from a true hurricane, I think we can all agree on that. Lucky for all of us, nothing is imminent once Hermine clears the pattern and gets out.
Meanwhile, hurricane Newton made landfall in the overnight hours along the Cabo San Lucas area of the southern Baja peninsula. Top winds were near 90 mph and now the hurricane is headed more north with a turn towards the northeast expected. This will bring Newton across the Baja and in to northwest Mexico where torrential rain will likely move across the region and in to Arizona. We saw this twice in 2014 with Norbert and Odile moving out of the Pacific around this same time frame. Areas such as Tucson could see potentially heavy rains with gusty winds Wednesday and in to Thursday as the remnant low of Newton tracks in to the region. As such, a flash flood watch has been posted for parts of southern Arizona in anticipation of this event.
Elsewhere, the tropics are mostly quiet for now. The global models are suggesting a possible uptick in activity over the coming week to ten days but I am skeptical and for good reason. The models have done a terrible job of prediction genesis or the start of any tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic thus far. We need only look at Hermine as a fine example of this. Conditions are just not very favorable overall with considerable dry air still prevalent in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, acting like a cap keeping a lid of developing thunderstorms over the tropics.
I will have a thorough look at everything during my video discussion which will be posted later this afternoon.
M. Sudduth 9:15AM ET Sept 6