Tropical storm Bret has moved past the Windward Islands, doing so during the overnight hours last night. Winds have increased some to near 45 mph and the movement remains at a brisk pace of 21 mph. The track forecast from the NHC takes the storm just north of the coast of South America, likely passing through the “ABC Islands” of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao. Interests there should expect a period of squally weather, including gusty winds and brief periods of very heavy rain and locally rough seas. Fortunately, the storm is moving fast and will clear the region in a very short period of time.
The future of Bret is likely going to short as well as upper level winds are not favorable for its continued viability. The official forecast shows Bret diminishing in intensity, eventually in to just a remnant low pressure area, in just a few days. We’ll watch and see how things play out but none of the reliable models suggest a threat to any land areas later on as the remnants of the storm move across the Caribbean Sea.
Meanwhile, what we’ve referred to as “93L” in the Gulf of Mexico is now what the NHC calls “Potential Tropical Cyclone Three” – about as close as you can get to having a named storm. It’s only a matter of time now as the latest advisory (8am ET) suggests that the system is getting better organized. I think that once we get a better look during daylight hours of the level center, the NHC will upgrade this to tropical storm Cindy later today.
I have prepared a video discussion covering both areas, you may view it by clicking the player below.
Note that I will be hitting the road for Louisiana and/or Texas later this morning for live coverage of the impacts from what will almost certainly be TS Cindy. I will be streaming the field mission live via our YouTube and Facebook Live channels. Be sure to follow on Twitter (@hurricanetrack) or get our app in the App Store (Hurricane Impact) for easy access to all of our coverage and updates on the go. I’ll embed the live video from YouTube here in a follow-up post just before I head out in a couple of hours. While on the road, I will continue to post video blogs as often as possible with live coverage continuing non-stop over the next several days.
M. Sudduth 9:15 AM ET June 20