New depression forming in the open tropical Atlantic as we prepare to say goodbye to Nadine

96L and TS Nadine

96L and TS Nadine

It looks like invest 96L will be our next tropical depression at anytime. It’s situated over warm sea surface temps and upper level winds are somewhat favorable for continued growth. I suspect it will become tropical storm Oscar before all is said and done.

The track is likely to be a quick turn north and then northeast as the lack of deep layer high pressure in the eastern Atlantic means that nothing can get very far to the west right now. After this system passes, we should be done with the Cape Verde season.

Meanwhile, Nadine is weakening and is about to turn north and head out in to the colder waters of the Atlantic. This will mean the end of the long-lived storm that twice became a hurricane. I wonder if the staff of the NHC will miss writing advisories for Nadine? Probably not.

Looking down the road in to the longer term, the global computer models do not show much of anything developing in the western Caribbean which is where we typically watch for tropical cyclone formation this time of year. The MJO pulse is currently not favorable for the Atlantic Basin and unless that changes, I think it will be tough to get development. However, once we get past the mid part of the month, I have a feeling, based on past experience, that we will see at least one more storm or hurricane get going somewhere in the Caribbean Sea. So far, nothing has managed to do so since Ernesto back in early August.

I am still on the road shooting interviews for the documentary that I am producing. I have interviewed nearly a dozen people so far and have some great real life stories of how they deal with hurricanes. I will add several more of those stories today and tomorrow before finally returning home to begin working on even more interviews in North Carolina. It’s amazing to see the areas affected by such hurricanes as Charley, Ivan, Katrina, Rita and Ike (and of course most recently Isaac) this many years later. In some areas much progress has been made while in others, just overgrown empty lots stand as reminders of the powerful forces of Nature that overwhelmed the region several years ago. I hope to convey this sense of living with hurricanes in the documentary. The people are what makes it so special and their sense of pride in their communities is touching and can be a lesson for other parts of the country that have to deal with adversity on many levels.

I’ll have more here tomorrow.

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Nadine forms in central Atlantic; won’t be of any concern except to shipping lanes

TS Nadine is the 14th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

TS Nadine is the 14th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

We are now up to 14 named storms for the season as the large tropical wave that emerged from Africa a few days ago is now TS Nadine. Top winds are 40 mph and it is expected to become a hurricane over the next few days.

There is no reason to worry about Nadine as it will likely never get past 50W longitude due to the abnormally weak subtropical ridge that has seemingly been in place for the past four years. This absence of deep layer ridging has kept a majority of the hurricanes that have formed far away from the U.S. and other land masses in the western Atlantic Basin. The only issue Nadine will pose is to shipping lanes. We might see an increase in swells along the East Coast and Bermuda if Nadine grows strong enough and large enough. We’ll just have to wait and see about that.

The rest of the Atlantic is nice and quiet and I see no threats to land over the next five to seven days.

Large Area of Disturbed Weather in the East Pacific off the Coast of Mexico

Large Area of Disturbed Weather in the East Pacific off the Coast of Mexico

In the eastern Pacific, there is a large area of disturbed weather just off the coast of Mexico that has a good shot at becoming a tropical depression soon. It should move generally west-northwest and away from Mexico.

I will have more here tomorrow as we look in to the latter half of the season and what to look for in the weeks ahead.

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